Champions League: Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid odds, predictions, picks for Tuesday, 4/30

Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid Odds

Tuesday, April 30, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich were actually really impressive in the second leg against Arsenal with what they were able to do out of possession. They held the Gunners to 0.4 xG mainly because they did not try to press Arsenal high. Instead they sat in a mid-block, denied any passes going through the middle of the pitch and forced Arsenal to beat them from out wide, which is a gameplan they can repeat here against Real Madrid.

One thing about Thomas Tuchel is true – when he spots a weakness with the opposing team he will hammer it over and over again. Against Arsenal, he used Guerreiro and Mazraoui on the left side of the pitch to not only give them a little bit of defensive cover against Saka, and he was also able to use them along with Musiala to create wide overloads to create chances via crosses, which is how they ultimately scored the winning goal.

The interesting story of Bayern Munich's season is they lead Europe's Big Five leagues in expected goal differential, but before their two leg-tie with Arsenal, they have faltered in some of their bigger games domestically. Most notably, their 3-0 loss at Leverkusen and what was interesting about that match is Leverkusen switched to a 5-3-2, let Bayern Munich have the ball and punished them in transition, which has been a weakness for Bayern.

I would find it very hard to believe that Tuchel is going to approach this tie trying to control a large share of the possession and instead maybe hand Real Madrid the ball play an active mid-block like they did against Arsenal with so much success.

Real Madrid

What we know about Real Madrid is they are a much better team without the ball than and playing in transition, so the matchup against Manchester City was a pretty good one for them. Bayern have now shown us that they can play without a majority of the ball and be successful, so it will be very interesting to see who holds a majority of the possession in this match.

What Real Madrid do out of possession is going to be very interesting because it was easy to just hand Manchester City the ball and play on the break, but they were pretty fortunate not to concede in the second leg, as they allowed City to take 33 shots and create 2.7 expected goals. If they do the same thing and play very passively against a Bayern Munich team that has technical and ruthless finishers all over the pitch, it’s going to be really tough to see how they don’t concede a lot of chances.

The other aspect is, Real Madrid are not a good pressing team. It’s been a major weakness under Ancelotti, so game state is going to have a big effect on this tie. They tried to press Barcelona in El Clasico last weekend and it was a complete disaster because they don’t commit the fullbacks to the press, so it often leaves space out wide, which is something Tuchel knows and will try to exploit time and time again if Real Madrid decide to press at all.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid

Prediction

This situation for Bayern Munich is a weird one. We don't normally see a team with a lame duck coach that has essentially already been fired make it to the semi finals. But, what Bayern showed against Arsenal is they have not quit on this season. They even have been in fine form in the Bundesliga, winning three straight matches and scoring nine goals in the process.

The price on this is way too high on Real Madrid. I only have them at -118 to advance and Bayern Munich’s underlying metrics have been significantly better than them, as they have a +1.68 xGD per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, compared to Real Madrid’s +0.97 xGD in La Liga.

I like Bayern Munich to advance to the final at +162.

Pick: Bayern Munich to Advance to the Final (+162 via bet365)