Special to OddsShark from Michael Dempsey

The odds of I’ll Have Another having another jewel of the Triple Crown by Saturday are good, but his chances at completing horse racing’s trifecta are slim.

We’re talking about Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another as he prepares for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore. Eleven 3-year-olds will line up in the $1 million sprint, and the one with a shot at giving the sport its first Triple Crown winner since 1978 isn’t even favored.

While the colt was draped in roses, Derby runner-up Bodemeister received nearly as much attention for his outstanding effort. He set sharp early fractions and held on gamely in the loss, and all indications are the Bob Baffert trainee is going to be the betting favorite Saturday.

Bodemeister is currently 2-1 odds, while I’ll Have Another is 5-2, according to the Preakness odds list at Odds Shark.

They boast an edge over the remainder of the field, but both figure to be well backed at the betting windows. Since the name of the game is making money on Saturday, let’s take a look at the remainder of the field and give each as much of a positive spin as we can:

Cozzetti: The colt skipped the Kentucky Derby after a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, beaten 9 ¾ lengths by the winner, Bodemeister. He makes his third start since January, and his speed figures are improving. His trainer, Dale Romans, saddled Shackelford, last year’s Preakness winner. Odds: 30-1

Creative Cause: After his win in the San Felipe back in March, in which Bodemeister was second, this colt looked like he could end up the Derby betting favorite. He came up a head short of I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby and was sent off as just less than 12-1 on Derby Day. The colt was caught in tight quarters on the first turn and had to come eight wide coming out of the far turn. He was still beaten just three lengths for all of it. He is flying under the radar and will likely offer us some betting value. Odds: 6-1

Daddy Nose Best: The Steve Asmussen trainee did not have the best of trips in his 10^th-place finish in the Derby. The colt had to steady when forced in during the early stages of the race, made a good middle move and was bumped around in the stretch and faded. The colt came into the race off wins in the El Camino Real and Sunland Derby, and his victory at Sunland Park produced one of the few triple-digit Beyer speed figures we saw along this year’s Derby trail. Odds: 15-1

Optimizer: The colt as sent off at 42-1 in the Derby, and he did not have the best of trips. The colt stalked the early pace while saving ground early, angled to the outside for the stretch drive but had to steady in traffic, went back down toward the inside but did not have much punch left late. His best effort this spring came in his runner-up finish to Secret Circle in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. It does not hurt to have trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who has won this race five times (most recently in 1999 with Charismatic), in his corner. Odds: 30-1

Pretension: The Chris Grove trainee has the advantage of some home cooking as he is based at nearby Bowie and has a win over the main track. The colt won the Canonero II on May 5. The colt has landed in the exacta in six of his eight starts, missing only in his two starts in Grade 3 company, a fifth-place finish in the Gotham at Aqueduct behind Hansen and a ninth-place finish in the Illinois. Back in 2002, there was a hopeless local long shot named Magic Weisner who came rolling down the Pimlico stretch to come up just three-quarters of a length short of the top spot at 45-1. Could there be more magic on Saturday for a local? Odds: 30-1

Teeth of the Dog: This colt is the most lightly raced among all of the Preakness contenders this year, with just four starts under his belt and just one against winners. The colt broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park in his third career start and then jumped up to face much tougher competition in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He gave a good account of himself in a third-place finish. The two that beat him were Gemologist and Alpha, who did not fire their best in the Derby, but this guy still appears to have a ton of upside. He is trained by Michael Matz, the 2006 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, whose Barbaro was pulled up in the Preakness with an injury. Odds: 15-1

Tiger Walk: This colt is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Wood, where he made a mild late run, beaten five lengths for the top spot and 1 ¾ lengths behind Teeth of the Dog for third. He has outrun his odds in his last two starts, sent off at 17-1 in the Wood and at 31-1 in a fourth-place finish in the Gotham in his previous outing. The colt is coming off a career top speed figure and looks to be improving. If he gets some pace to run at, he could be a factor in the stretch at a generous price. Odds: 20-1

Went the Day Well: Owned and trained by last year’s Derby winning connections, the colt came into the Derby off a win in the Spiral at Turfway Park, but he was dismissed at 30-1 on Derby Day. The colt was bumped coming out of the gate, outrun in the early going, came with a seven-wide run and was picking up horses in the stretch. He was beaten just 2 ½ lengths for the top spot. The colt will not be as far back on Saturday, and his trainer, Graham Motion, has won plenty of races at Pimlico over the years. This colt may be the biggest threat to the two top betting choices. Odds: 6-1

Zetterholm: This New York-bred has three wins in his five career starts, all coming against state-breds. His stakes debut came last out in his victory in the Patsyprosepect at Aqueduct. He is stepping into much deeper waters here outside of the New York-bred ranks, but he does have trainer Rick Dutrow in his corner. Dutrow won the Derby and Preakness in 2008 with Big Brown, and the barn has been red hot, winning at a 31 percent clip overall in 2012. Odds: 30-1

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for the Preakness Stakes as well as for Belmont Park and Churchill Downs each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

Special to OddsShark.com from Michael Dempsey

History tells us Bodemeister likely will not win the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby.

But oddsmakers tell us we can ignore history, as the Bob Baffert trainee has the best chance in the field of 20 for Saturday's Run for the Roses.

Bodemeister is the 4-1 morning-line favorite, but the last Derby winner who did not run as a 2-year-old was Apollo. That was 130 years ago. [ Latest Derby Odds ]

For context, Old West outlaw Jesse James had been killed a few weeks earlier in April 1882 and Thomas Edison was getting ready to throw the switch on the first commercial electrical power plant in New York.

But Bodemeister's the most talented horse in the field. He romped to victory in the Arkansas Derby in the most dominant performance of the Derby preps.

Union Rags remains a close second choice at 9-2, and those numbers are bound to change before the horses load into the gate at Churchill Downs.

This year’s race is as wide open as I have seen, and we might even see an all-time record for the betting favorite by post time. The highest-priced betting favorite was Lookin At Lucky at 6.3-1 in 2010.

Here is a look at the field, along with a reason why each horse can (or cannot) win the Kentucky Derby: [ Also get Michael's Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby picks and play a free Derby contest with $750 in cash prizes! ]

1. Daddy Long Legs: It has been demonstrated that horses coming over from the desert in Dubai can’t win the Derby. The colt has made one trip to the U.S., a 12^th-place finish in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I don’t like to bet on horses that have more frequent flier miles than I do. 30-1

2. Optimizer: This colt is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has won this race four times (most recently in 1999 with Charismatic). The colt was beaten by 20 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. Lukas is known around the backstretch as “The Coach.” I don’t think this colt has much of a chance even if Phil Jackson helped train him. 50-1

3. Take Charge Indy: The colt stole the Florida Derby on the front end, and he will not be on the lead on Saturday afternoon. His 15-1 morning line looks fair enough, but with Calvin Borel in the saddle, that price might end up lighter. Borel has ridden the Derby winner in three of the past five years. 15-1

4. Union Rags: This guy seemed headed for Louisville as the betting favorite before he got derailed in Florida by Take Charge Indy. The colt will still likely be one of the top three betting choices in the race, so the value could be lacking. I do hope casual fans have a short memory. His trainer, Michael Matz, trained 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. 9-2

5. Dullahan: The Dale Romans trainee has a pair of Grade 1 wins on his resume, but both came over synthetic surfaces. In fact, he is 0 for 3 over the Churchill Downs main track. Can a horse that made his final two preps on grass and ground-up rubber balls and plastic win the Derby on dirt? His Blue Grass win on Polytrack was impressive, and he is going to end up the “wise guy” choice. The wise guys are really not that smart. 15-1

6. Bodemeister: I'll be stunned if this colt becomes the first Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 to win the Run for the Roses without having a start as a 2-year-old. He is the most talented colt in the field and the probable betting choice, but history is against him. 4-1

7. Rousing Sermon: Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt comes into the race having lost five straight and figures to be one of the longest prices in the field. Even if his connections spend all morning in church, this guy does not seem to be good enough to be an factor on Saturday afternoon. 55-1

8. Creative Cause: The colt suffered a tough beat in the Santa Anita Derby, coming up a nose shy to I’ll Have Another. The colt has not run a bad one in his eight career starts and is one of only four in the field that has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. He was beaten only a length over the main track here in last fall’s Breeder’ Cup Juvenile. He looks like a player and could end up a decent price as well. 11-1

9. Trinniberg: This colt has not gone two turns in his career, and his longest race has been at seven furlongs. He does come into the race off nice wins in the Swale and Bay Shore, and will be on the lead early. He will likely fade early. 50-1

10. Daddy Nose Best: The Steve Asmussen trainee won the Sunland Derby in his last race, and don’t forget Mine That Bird used that race as a prep to pull off the big upset in 2009. The colt has only made three starts on conventional dirt, and two of them were losses at Churchill Downs. 15-1

11. Alpha: This guy is the inner-track wonder, winning the Count Fleet and Withers. But he proved he could handle the Big A main track, as well, with a game second to the undefeated Gemologist in the Wood Memorial. His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, saddled 71-1 long shot Closing Argument to a runner-up finish behind Giacomo in the 2005 Derby, which was a $2 exacta that returned $9,814.80. 15-1

12. Prospective: The Tampa Bay Derby winner flopped in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, checking in sixth. The colt was a non-factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall over the main track. Maybe he just did not like the Polytrack in his last start, but he ran well over the fake stuff in Canada in two outings, including a win in the Grey Stakes. He is going to be a generous price on the tote if you think he can bounce back with a better effort switching back to dirt, but others look sharper and faster. 30-1

13. Went the Day Well: Can lightning strike twice in Louisville? Team Valor and trainer Graham Motion brought Animal Kingdom into last year’s Derby off a win in the Spiral and pulled off the upset to the tune of $43.80. Nobody thought I could pick back-to-back Derby winners, so if I can do it, I guess somebody much smarter than me, like Motion, could do it, too. 20-1

14. Hansen: The 2010 juvenile champion could not hold off Dullahan in the late stages of the Blue Grass and had to settle for the runner-up spot. The best thing about betting on this guy is that his nearly white color will make him very easy to spot, as will his running style. He should be sitting in second or third in the early going. I am just not sure he can hold off the late runners. 10-1

15. Gemologist: He did not make his 3-year-old debut until March, but he has caught up to his rivals after a game win in the Wood over a more-seasoned Alpha. He comes into the race undefeated and three of the past five to come into this race undefeated also won. Those were Big Brown, Barbaro, and Smarty Jones. Anyone remember the two that lost for the first time on Derby day? Curlin and Showing Up. 6-1

16. El Padrino: His Risen Star win was as game as they come, and then he regressed in the Florida Derby, beaten three lengths. But the race really did not set up for him. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, finally got a win in the 2010 Derby with Super Saver after going 0 for 24 in the big dance. He is coming into Louisville flying under the radar and might be one to use in the exotics. 22-1

17. Done Talking: He won a weak Illinois Derby, coming from off the pace at 12-1. He bounced back nicely after getting drilled in the Gotham by better than 20 lengths by Hansen. He does not look quick enough, so I am done talking about Done Talking's chances. 50-1

18. Sabercat: The colt was no match for Bodemeister, but he was picking it up late in his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He locked in a Derby berth by hitting the Jackpot at Delta Downs last November, so his trainer Steve Asmussen did not have to worry about graded earnings. Does he have another gear left for this third start of the year? The price figures to be right, at least. 35-1

19. I’ll Have Another: This colt has won both of his starts this year, getting a picture-perfect ride last out by jockey Mario Gutierrez in winning the Santa Anita Derby. This colt appears to have a ton of upside and is in good hands with trainer Doug O’Neill. The jockey will be riding in his first Derby, which can seem daunting, but he was cool in both of his rides on this colt and I would not downgrade his chances based on the jock. 12-1

20. Liaison: Baffert’s “other” runner in here is coming off a fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. The colt looked promising after winning the CashCall Futurity as a juvenile, but he is winless in three starts this year. Baffert adds blinkers and his good luck charm Martin Garcia, but the post is tough. 50-1

21. My Adonis: This guy is sitting on the also-eligible list and will get into the race only if there is a late scratch before Friday morning. His runner-up finish to Hansen in the Gotham looks solid enough, but he faded to finish seventh in the Wood. The Preakness might be the best option for this guy.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Belmont Park and Churchill Downs each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

Philip Humber does something tonight that only five pitchers since 1999 have done - start a game on the heels of a perfect game.

And if history teaches baseball bettors anything about the Perfect Game Hangover, it's that betting on that pitcher to have a quality start is a money-losing proposition.

In those five games, the next outing was a loss for the pitcher who was perfect just a few days earlier.

So as the Chicago White Sox righty hosts the Red Sox tonight, many MLB handicappers are taking the underdog money on Boston.

"The Red Sox opened as +120 underdogs but it was bet quickly down to near even odds at most sportsbooks we follow," said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com.

"Maybe bettors did their homework and knew the stats."

Indeed, nearly 60 per cent of the wagering action was on the Red Sox by late morning, according to the OddsShark.com MLB Consensus data.

Looking back to July 18, 1999, David Cone was perfect against the Montreal Expos and fell apart six days later. He was rocked for 12 hits and 6 earned runs in a 6-4 loss at Detroit. 0-1 for Perfect People.

It took five years for another perfect game and it was Randy Johnson with a 13-K masterpiece on May 18, 2004 at Atlanta. Less than a week later, he lost 1-0 to the Mets, even though he was dominant again. 0-2 for Perfect People.

Mark Buehrle was perfect on July 23, 2009 winning 5-0 against Tampa Bay. But he lost his next start 5-3 at Minnesota and the White Sox lost his next four starts while recovering from Perfect Game Hangover. 0-3 for Perfect People.

In 2010, two perfect games were spun 20 days apart. On May 9, little-known Dallas Braden, who had been clobbered in his previous two starts, won 4-0 at home, also against Tampa Bay. Talk about a hangover - Oakland lost his next eight starts in a row. 0-4 for Perfect People.

And on May 29, Roy Halladay spun his 1-0 gem at Miami. He struggled six days later, giving up 10 hits but the Phillies defense and bullpen lopcked down a 3-2 win over San Diego. He was hung over, but his buddies bailed him out. 1-4 for Perfect People.

The situation was a bit better for pitchers who 'simply' threw a no-hitter and didn't bother with the perfect game part. There were three no-no's in 2011 and the pitcher's team won the following week twice.

Francisco Liriano continued his career-long mercurial pattern by following his May 3 no-hitter at Chicago with 10-2 loss in his next start.

Four days later, Justin Verlander visited Toronto and no-hit the Blue Jays. In his next start, he threw a complete-game win. He would go on to win the AL Cy Young.

And on July 27, Ervin Santana tossed a 3-1 no-hitter at Cleveland, which was the start of an uncharacteristic run of superb outings for him. He won his next three starts including two complete games and one where he pitched into the ninth.

Maybe it finally caught up with him here in 2012. Santana is 0-4 with a 7.23 ERA so far for the Angels, who haven't scored a single run in his past three starts.

Check out the Red Sox vs White Sox matchup report and live odds on every MLB game every day.

Special to Yardbarker courtesy of Michael Dempsey

Creative Cause stays atop this week’s Kentucky Derby Elite Eight, but this year’s race is setting up to be one of the most wide-open betting affairs in years.

A serious case for the No. 1 position could be made for any of the horses on this week’s list. And that lack of consensus means bettors won't know which of the top contenders will be the favorite once the public starts wagering May 4.

Bodemeister, Union Rags and Creative Cause are the likely candidates, but the public is going to put plenty of their cash on 2011 juvenile champion Hansen and the undefeated Gemologist.

The all-time record for the highest-priced Derby favorite was Lookin At Lucky at 6.3-1 back in 2010. The Bob Baffert trainee had a rough trip breaking from the rail post and finished sixth.

Here is a look at the major contenders for this year’s Run for the Roses, along with positives and negatives that impact the Kentucky Derby odds in 2012:

1. Creative Cause

Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway – Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Last Race: Second in Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) on April 7

Graded Earnings: $836,000

Betting Odds: 12-1

Positive: The colt has a solid foundation as a 2-year-old and has never missed landing in the money in his eight starts.

Negative: He could not hold off I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby and has lost three of his past four starts, including a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over the Churchill Downs main track.

2. Bodemeister

Pedigree: Empire Maker – Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Last Race: Won the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) on April 14 at Oaklawn Park

Graded Earnings: $660,000

Betting Odds: 9-2

Positive: The colt owns three consecutive triple-digit Beyer speed figures and has Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in his corner.

Negative: Horses do not win the Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old, at least not in the past century.

3. Dullahan

Pedigree: Even the Score – Mining My Own, by Smart Strike

Trainer: Dale Romans

Last Race: Won Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland on April 14

Graded Earnings: $855,000

Betting Odds: 10-1

Positive: The colt won the Blue Grass like he can run all day, and the 1 ¼ miles does not seem likely to be a problem for this Dale Romans trainee. He is a two-time Grade 1 winner.

Negative: He is 0 for 3 over the Churchill Downs main track and has never won a race on conventional dirt. Both of his wins came over Polytrack at Keeneland.

4. Union Rags

Pedigree: Dixie Union – Tempo, by Gone West

Trainer: Michael Matz

Last Race: Third in Florida Derby (Grade 1) at Gulfstream Park on March 31

Graded Earnings: $1,170,000

Betting Odds: 9-2

Positive: The colt ran well over the main track at Churchill Downs in his runner-up finish to Hansen, beaten just a head, and his third in the Florida Derby looks like it should set him up for a top effort on Derby Day.

Negative: His speed figures have not moved forward over the numbers he was posting as a juvenile, and the price on the colt might end up on the short side. Others are going to end up offering more bang for the buck.

5. Hansen

Pedigree: Tapit – Storm Sunday, by Sir Cat

Trainer: Mike Maker

Last Race: Runner-up in Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland on April 14

Graded Earnings: $1,500,000

Betting Odds: 14-1

Positive: The colt showed he could rate in his win in the Gotham and, in a 20-horse field, his nearly white color will make it easy to spot him during the race.

Negative: There is plenty of early speed in the race and, if he could not hold off Dullahan going 1/1-8 miles in the Blue Grass, it is hard to imagine he can hold off this field going even farther.

6. Take Charge Indy

Pedigree: A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere

Trainer: Patrick Byrne

Last Race: Won Florida Derby (Grade 1) at Gulfstream Park on March 31

Graded Earnings: $698,400

Betting Odds: 18-1

Positive: The colt is in a sharp barn with Patrick Byrne, and the colt is bred to run all day, by A.P. Indy out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady.

Negative: He got loose on the lead in his Florida Derby win in his final prep, and he will not have things easy on the front in the Derby. In fact, he will not even be on the lead.

7. Gemologist

Pedigree: Tiznow – Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Last Race: Won Wood Memorial (Grade 1) on April 7 at Aqueduct

Graded Earnings: $703,855

Betting Odds: 7-1

Positive: The colt is the lone runner coming into the Derby without a loss. He's perfect in five career starts, including a game win over the more seasoned Alpha in the Wood Memorial.

Negative: The Wood was his only really test this year. He did not make his 3-year-old debut until March 16, where he beat four overmatched foes in a first-level allowance race. The waters get much deeper on the first Saturday of May.

8. I’ll Have Another

Pedigree: Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal Edith, by Arch

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Last Race: Won Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) at Santa Anita on April 7

Graded Earnings: $601,000

Betting Odds: 10-1

Positive: His win in the Santa Anita Derby over Creative Cause showed he is the real deal, and he comes into the Derby perfect in his two starts this year.

Negative: There is not much negative to say about this guy, although his jockey will be riding in the Derby for the first time, no easy task.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Belmont Park and Churchill Downs each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

With all of the major Kentucky Derby preps in the books, the field for this year’s Run for the Roses is starting to come into focus.

Trying to pick a winner or even the likely betting favorite on the Kentucky Derby odds list is still quite fuzzy.

After Bodemeister trounced the field in last Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, an argument could be made that he is the betting favorite for the race.

However, the public could end up landing on undefeated Wood Memorial winner Gemologist, Florida Derby third-place finisher Union Rags, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Creative Cause or even 2011 juvenile champion Hansen.

With such a wide-open field, we could see the favorite go off at odds between 5/1 and 6/1. The all-time record for the highest price for the favorite could be in danger.

ADVERTISEMENT: Play a free horse betting contest on the Keeneland track today for $500 in cash prizes.

In 2010, Lookin At Lucky went off at 6.3/1, an all-time high. The second-highest was Harlan’s Holiday, who went off at 6/1 in 2002.

A legitimate case could be made for a dozen contenders for this year’s race, which will give horseplayers an absolute fantastic betting race on the first Saturday of May.

Here is a look at the major contenders for this year’s Run for the Roses:

1. Creative Cause

The colt’s grip on No. 1 was precarious last week, and it is even more so this week after strong performances from Bodemeister and Dullahan. However, we keep this guy up top, despite the Mike Harrington trainee losing his final Derby prep with a nose loss to I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Harrington took the blinkers off in his last start, and although his speed figure did regress off his big effort in the San Felipe, that would indicate that he could be coming into the race in Louisville with plenty left in the tank. Don’t forget who ran second to him in his San Felipe victory - Bodemeister.

2. Bodemeister

There is not much to say, as this colt was not even on the list last week and he shoots up to No. 2 with one of the best-looking Derby prep performances we have seen this spring, drawing clear to win the Arkansas Derby by 9 ½ widening lengths. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has owned Oaklawn Park the last few years and has fared pretty well on the first Saturday of May as well. His 108 Beyer speed figure for his last win was the highest number for a major Derby prep this spring, and he comes into Churchill Downs with three consecutive triple-digit Beyers. Will he regress off that last outing with just a three-week break? That is the question we are going to have to answer before we place our bets. I did not mention the colt is named after Baffert’s kid Bode, but you will hear that enough in the coming weeks, anyway.

3. Dullahan

This colt is taking the less-than-conventional trip to Louisville, having finished second in the Palm Beach on grass at Gulfstream Park, followed by a win last Saturday in the Blue Grass at Keeneland over Polytrack. He earned a 98 Beyer for his Blue Grass win and looked very sharp, running down 2011 juvenile champion Hansen and winning by 1 ¼ lengths. He is 0 for 3 on conventional dirt but did run well over the Churchill Downs surface last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he made a good late run to finish fourth. Of all the major players this year, this guy might end up offering the most bang for the buck.

4. Union Rags

His final prep came in a third-place finish in the Florida Derby back on March 31, which was just the second loss in his career. His first was when he came up a head short of catching Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Once the early Kentucky Derby favorite, he seems to have been lost in the shuffle the past few weeks, but this colt still figures to be one of the top four betting choices on Derby Day. He did not get much pace to run at in the Florida Derby, as Take Charge Indy had things fairly easy up front in his gate-to-wire victory. He should be primed and ready to go off the short break by trainer Michael Matz, who used the same path with Barbaro in 2006

5. Hansen

After sitting off the pace for the first time and winning the Gotham, he reverted back to his speedy ways last out by setting the early fractions in the Blue Grass, only to get caught by the late running Dullahan. To be fair, there was not an abundance of early zip in the Blue Grass which did not give jockey Ramon Dominguez too many options other than grabbing the early lead. There will be more speed on Derby Day, and this colt figures to be right in the mix early. His speed figs this year have been comparable to his juvenile campaign and I’m just not convinced he will have another gear going 1 ¼ miles. It’s a to,ugh call, but with the recent strong preps knocking him down a few pegs, it will be interesting to see how much confidence the betting public has in the juvenile champion in a couple of weeks.

6. Take Charge Indy

Winning the Run for the Roses off only two preps is a tough task, but this colt has the pedigree and talent to pull it off. He had things easy up front in his win in the Florida Derby, but I do not expect to see him on the lead on Derby Day. The colt still appears to have a ton of upside, and he has a pedigree that suggests he can run all day. He is by A.P. Indy out of the multiple Grade winner Take Charge Lady, who won eight graded stakes in her career and earned $2.48 million. Casual racing fans may not know the name of trainer Patrick Byrne very well, which could help the price. The trainer knows his way around a good horse, training Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Favorite Trick and Juvenile Fillies winner Countess Diana in 1997 and winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Awesome Again in 1998.

7. Gemologist

The undefeated colt drops a couple of notches this week, which hardly seems fair, but that is just how wide-open this year’s Derby is going to be. He did not make his 3-year-old debut until March 16 and that was an easy allowance win at Gulfstream Park. He came back with an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial, beating a more battle-tested Alpha by a neck. The colt does have a couple of wins on the Churchill Downs main track, including the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall.

8. I’ll Have Another

The Doug O’Neill trainee will come into Louisville off back-to-back wins in the Robert B. Lewis and Santa Anita Derby. The latter was a win by a nose over Creative Cause with a picture-perfect ride by jockey Mario Gutierrez. He is a relative newcomer to the Southern California circuit, who will be riding in his first Kentucky Derby. The colt appears to have as much upside as any of the top eight in here, and he has a pedigree that suggests he can handle the extra ground. I might like him better if his name meant having another cocktail. It actually originated by his owner wanting another cookie.

Knocked off this week’s list:

Alpha: His trainer reported he has an infection because of a few minor cuts he suffered in his last race. Still Derby-bound, but I hate to see any setbacks.

Secret Circle: He was no match for his stablemate Bodemeister. I have not questioned his talent all spring by having him on the list, but his pedigree suggests others will be more attractive on Derby Day.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct and Keeneland each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

Jon Jones is a huge -500 favorite Saturday to defend his UFC light heavyweight belt against his former pal and training partner Rashad Evans.

But this will be no respectful love-in between buddies: they have grown to detest each other after Jones leapfrogged Evans on his way to the belt last March.

Evans was injured training for his title shot against Shogun Rua. Jones got the shot and the rest is light heavyweight championship history.

"At -500, there is still a ton of action on Jones and many don't believe Evans will be able to handle the size and height and variety that Jones brings to the ring," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.

He's not the only huge favorite on the UFC 145 odds menu. A pair of Canadians are -700 and -500 chalk as well.

Mark Hominick is -700 against Eddie Yagin. Many believe The Machine will hammer out a quick victory.

And Rory MacDonald, the athletic welterweight who many believe will challenge for the title this year, is -500 against Che Mills.

Check out the full MMA wagering menu and UFC 145 predictions.

Mac Danzig -190
Efrain Escudero 150

Maximo Blanco
Marcus Brimage

Anthony Njokuani -210
John Makdessi 160

Keith Wisniewski 180
Chris Clements -260

Matt Brown 230
Stephen Thompson -310

Travis Browne -260
Chad Griggs 180

Miguel Angel Torres -110
Michael McDonald -110

Rory MacDonald -500
Che Mills 400

Mark Hominick -700
Eddie Yagin 500

Mark Bocek -400
John Alessio 325

Ben Rothwell 220
Brendan Schaub -260

Rashad Evans 400
Jon Jones -500

Watch for round by round and submission vs KO odds on each fight as well.

With only three weeks until the 138^th running of the Kentucky Derby, it is supposed to get easier to compile a list of the Elite Eight.

Instead, we saw last week's No. 1, Creative Cause, come up a nose shy in his final Derby prep, while Gemologist and I’ll Have Another both jumped back on the list with impressive victories last Saturday.

I’ll Have Another out-gamed Creative Cause to the wire to prevail by a hard-fought nose in the Santa Anita Derby and returns to this week’s list at No. 7. Creative Cause, meanwhile, clung to the top spot despite the loss and will still go to Louisville as one of the betting favorites.

Gemologist finally made his 3-year-old stakes debut last Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and put in a strong effort beating the more seasoned Alpha by a neck. He returns to the list this week at No. 5.

There is very little separating horses this week, and the rankings might get another shake-up next week, as we have the final two major Derby preps coming up this weekend.

Here is a look at the major Kentucky Derby contenders for this year’s race. (Odds courtesy of Odds Shark).

1. Creative Cause, 10-1

The Mike Harrington trainee stays at No. 1 this week, although a case could be made for any of the top five on the list to take over the top spot. That is especially true in the wake of impressive efforts last weekend by I’ll Have Another, Gemologist and Alpha. The colt’s final prep was a runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby, beaten a nose by I’ll Have Another, who got a brilliant ride from relatively unknown jockey Marco Gutierrez. Harrington elected to take the blinkers off for his last start, and colt battled right to the wire in a strong effort that should have him set and ready to go for a top effort on the first Saturday of May. He earned a 94 Beyer speed figure, down eight points from his win in the San Felipe. Despite the hard-fought defeat, he looks capable of moving back toward the figure he posted two back in his next outing.

2. Union Rags, 7-2

The colt’s third in the Florida Derby was a bit disappointing, but he did not get much pace to run at, as Take Charge Indy was able to control things up front and take the field gate to wire to pull off the upset. The colt’s speed figures have not moved forward off his juvenile campaign, but that appears to be by design, and I do not think trainer Michael Matz had the colt fully cranked for his last start. Matz saddled Barbaro to victory for his first Kentucky Derby win, and it looks as if the screws will be tightened on this colt once he arrives in Louisville.

3. Hansen, 8-1

Last year’s juvenile champion will make his final prep this Saturday in the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland over a Polytrack surface. Last year, Animal Kingdom used the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park over Poly as his final prep, before pulling off the upset on Derby Day. He showed a new dimension by coming from off the pace in his win in the Gotham at Aqueduct, and now he has to show he can handle 1 1/8 miles. The two above him lost their final preps, and this guy is capable of moving up the list with an impressive victory on Saturday. However, he does not need to win, just put in a solid effort and leave something in the tank for the first Saturday of May.

4. Take Charge Indy, 12-1

This colt finally proved my radar was working properly when he stole the Florida Derby. I was expecting a top performance out of him but was not expecting to see him go gate to wire as he is not a need-to-lead type. I love this guy’s pedigree, as he is by A.P. Indy out of the $2.4 million earner Take Charge Lady. Casual racing fans might not know the name of trainer Patrick Byrne very well, which could help the price. The trainer knows his way around a good horse, training Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Favorite Trick and Juvenile Fillies winner Countess Diana in 1997 and winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Awesome Again in 1998.

5. Gemologist, 7-1

So this guy is for real after all. The winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club over the main track at Churchill Downs last fall, he came into the Wood Memorial last Saturday with just an allowance race under his belt as a 3-year-old. He got tested by Count Fleet and Withers winner Alpha and battled that runner right to the wire to win by a neck. He raced wide much of the trip while Alpha had a less-than-stellar trip himself. The colt has the pedigree to handle the 1¼ miles and has two victories over the main track at Churchill Downs.

6. Alpha, 12-1

I have been high on this colt all winter. He won the Count Fleet and Withers on the inner track at Aqueduct while earning less-than-flashy speed figures. He got his real test in the Wood and, although he came up a neck shy of beating Gemologist, he proved he is among the top 3-year-olds heading to Louisville in his defeat. He earned a career top Beyer speed figure in his outing. His jockey, Ramon Dominguez, was just returning from a collarbone injury. The jockey likely is going to stick with Hansen, so this colt will need a new jockey for his next outing.

7. I’ll Have Another, 10-1

After his fourth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis, I had my doubts that this guy was a top contender for the Run for the Roses. But he proved he belongs with a game victory in the Santa Anita Derby last Saturday. The colt got just a picture-perfect ride and edged Creative Cause by a nose. His jockey, Gutierrez, was a regular at Hastings Park before making the big move to Southern California. What a story this would be if the colt wins on Derby Day. The jockey won me over with his flawless ride on Saturday.

8. Secret Circle, 15-1

There are at least six horses that could be placed at No. 8 on the list this week, including Went the Day Well and Daddy Nose Best, who slipped off the list. His pedigree to handle 1 ¼ miles is questionable, but he is in great hands with Bob Baffert. He gets a real test on Saturday in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The colt is perfect in two trips in Hot Springs, winning the Southwest and Rebel. When Baffert sends horse to Oaklawn Park, it is usually money in the bank.

Key Derby preps this weekend

Saturday April 14

$750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland

$1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct and Keeneland each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60. [ Check out Kentucky Derby picks and analysis ]

By Michael Dempsey, special to OddsShark.com from PickShark.com

Union Rags came up short last Saturday in the $1 million Florida Derby (Grade 1) as Take Charge Indy took charge early in a gate-to-wire run to pull off the upset.

The well-bred Take Charge Indy makes his way back onto this week’s Kentucky Derby Elite Eight list, charging up to No. 4, while Union Rags drops off his perch to No. 2. Last week’s No. 2, Creative Cause, creates a minor stir by taking over the top spot.

The list could certainly look different next week, as there are three key Derby preps coming up on Saturday, with Creative Cause in action in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1).

Alpha, who is No. 5 on this week’s list, will also be in action, making his final Derby prep in the $1 million Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Here is a look at the major contenders for this year’s Run for the Roses: [ current Kentucky Derby odds ]

1. Creative Cause

The Mike Harrington trainee moves from No. 2 to the top slot on this week’s list thanks to the loss by Union Rags in the Florida Derby. The colt appears to be coming into this Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby in fine fashion and, with plenty of graded earnings already in the bank, he does not have to win - he just needs to put in a solid effort to set him up nicely for the Kentucky Derby.

2. Union Rags

His third-place finish in the Florida Derby was surprising, as was the way bettors sent him off at 2/5 betting odds. The colt did not have a great trip, stalking a slow early pace and then not having much running room until late, where he finished up well. He lost the place spot to Reveron by a neck and was beaten a length by Take Charge Indy, who had things pretty easy setting a slow early pace. The colt’s speed figures have not progressed this year over his juvenile campaign, but it looks as if he is sitting on a career top come the first Saturday of May.

3. Hansen

Originally being pointed toward the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct, his connections have taken a left turn, and last year’s juvenile champion will make his final prep on Polytrack in the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland on April 14. The colt’s first two career starts came on the fake stuff, and he won the races by a combined 25 ½ lengths. Last year’s Derby champ, Animal Kingdom, used the Spiral (Grade 2) at Turfway Park over Polytrack as his final prep. I really liked his Gotham (Grade 3) win on the inner track at Aqueduct, where he showed an ability to sit off the pace.

4. Take Charge Indy

I have been high on this colt ever since I saw him win the Arlington Washington Futurity (Grade 3) last fall in his first start against winners. What caught my eye was his pedigree. He is by A.P. Indy out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady, who earned $2.48 million in her outstanding career. He was fifth behind Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1), and he dropped back off my list after his trainer Patrick Byrne elected to skip the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2). He looks like a genius now after winning Saturday’s Florida Derby (Grade 1). The colt got away with an easy lead, but I still think he has a ton of upside and does not need the lead.

5. Alpha

His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, seemed undecided about where this guy would make his final Derby prep, and finally we will get to see him in action on Saturday in the Wood Memorial. The colt loved the inner track, taking the Count Fleet and Withers (Grade 3) but now will have to prove himself on the Big A main track and against a tougher group. Among the runners he will meet on Saturday include the undefeated Gemologist

6. Secret Circle

Trained by Bob Baffert, who suffered a heart attack while in Dubai on March 25, this colt will be making his third trip to Hot Springs on April 14 for the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) in an attempt to sweep the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. The colt won the Southwest (Grade 3) followed by the Rebel (Grade 2). The question mark is whether he can handle the extra ground, but he has done everything right up to this point. It does not hurt to have Baffert in his corner, and he does seem capable of handling the 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby. The 1 ¼ miles could be another story and, if he wins big in his final Derby prep and with the high-profile trainer, the real question could be whether this guy is going to offer much betting value on Derby day.

7. Went the Day Well

Owner Team Valor and trainer Graham Motion are looking for déjà vu all over again with this colt, who won the Spiral Stakes (Grade 2) in impressive fashion on March 24, earning a 92 Beyer speed figure. The connections used the Spiral last year as the final prep for Animal Kingdom, and that worked out pretty well. Originally, owner Barry Irwin of Team Valor, mentioned another prep but has backed off that and now he is pointed straight to Louisville.

8. Daddy Nose Best

Ever since Mine That Bird used the Sunland Derby as a prep for his shocker in the Kentucky Derby, this is a race we have to keep on the radar. This year it was won by the Steve Asmussen-trained Daddy Nose Best, who earned a 100 Beyer speed figure in his victory. His first start of his 3-year-old campaign was a victory over a synthetic surface in the El Camino Real (Grade 3) at Golden Gate Fields. The runner-up in that race was Lucky Chappy, who failed to fire in the UAE Derby (Grade 2) last Saturday. The Sunland Derby field was not particularly strong and the betting favorite Castaway failed to fire in a seventh-place finish. It is still a tough read on just how good this guy might be but he should offer decent value on Derby Day.

Key Derby preps this weekend:

Saturday April 7

$1 million Wood Memorial (Grade 1) Aqueduct

$750,000 Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) Santa Anita

$500,000 Illinois Derby (Grade 3) Hawthorne

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.

The spread on Kentucky has climbed to 7 points at some sportsbooks and the betting public continues to back the Wildcats ahead of their battle with Kansas Monday night.

The college basketball national final won't be much of a battle if oddsmakers are right. And it could be a great day for bettors if Kentucky covers the spread.

"The line opened at -6 but it's up to -7 at one shop and more than 62% of the action was on the Wildcats this morning," said Mark Presley of OddsShark.com.

As expected, the amount of wagering on Final Four props was brisk as hundreds of fun team and player props went up on wagerign boards over the weekend.

Among them are Anthony Davis over under on blocks (set at 4.5) and a head-to-head points battle between Davis and fellow First Team All-American Thomas Robinson of Kansas.

See the list of props below and check out the current Kansas vs Kentucky line before tip-off.

(Kansas vs Kentucky) - Total Points - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over 17½
(-120)o
(-120)u

Total Free Throws Made - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over 4½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Assists - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over 2½
(+130)o
(-170)u

Total Rebounds - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over 11½
(-120)o
(-120)u

Total Blocks - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over ½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Points and Rebounds - Thomas Robinson (Kansas)

Over 28½
(-125)o
(-115)u

Total Points - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)

Over 14½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Free Throws Made - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)

Over 3½
(-120)o
(-120)u

Total 3 Point Shots Made - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)

Over 1½
(EVEN)o
(-140)u

Total Assists - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)

Over 4½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Points and Assists - Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas)

Over 20½
(-120)o
(-120)u

Total Points - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 15½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Free Throws Made - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 4½
(-115)o
(-125)u

Total Assists - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 1½
(-110)o
(-130)u

Total Rebounds - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 10½
(-135)o
(-105)u

Total Blocks - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 4½
(EVEN)o
(-140)u

Total Points, Rebounds and Blocks - Anthony Davis (Kentucky)

Over 29½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Points - Doron Lamb (Kentucky)

Over 13½
(-130)o
(-110)u

Total Free Throws Made - Doron Lamb (Kentucky)

Over 3
(-135)o
(-105)u

Total 3 Point Shots Made - Doron Lamb (Kentucky)

Over 1½
(-160)o
(+120)u

Total Points and Rebounds - Doron Lamb (Kentucky)

Over 15½
(-125)o
(-115)u

Total Points - Terrence Jones (Kentucky)

Over 12½
(-115)o
(-125)u

Total points - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky)

Over 11½
(-135)o
(-105)u

Total Rebounds - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky)

Over 7½
(-115)o
(-125)u

Total Points - Marquis Teague (Kentucky)

Over 10
(-120)o
(-120)u

Total 3 Point Shots Made - Marquis Teague (Kentucky)

Over ½
(-125)o
(-115)u

Total Assists - Marquis Teague (Kentucky)

Over 5½
(-115)o
(-125)u

(Kansas vs Kentucky) - Who will record more points in the game?

Thomas Robinson (Kansas) -3½ (-120)
Anthony Davis (Kentucky) +3½ (-120)

Two Derby hopefuls were exposed as pretenders while Went the Day Well and Daddy Nose Best proved themselves contenders for the Run For the Roses last weekend.

With just five weeks until the 138^th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, connections with top 3-year-olds are tightening the screws and getting them ready for their last prep races.

There is $2 million in graded earnings up for grabs this weekend, and the only way to get a spot in the starting gate is to be among the top 20 sophomores in graded stakes earnings.

Derby Kitten was last in the gate last year with $120,000, although the cut-off in 2010 was the $218,7509 in the bank by Make Music for Me. [ Current Kentucky Derby odds ]

With increases in purses for some of the Derby preps this year, it may take around $250,000 to guarantee a ticket to Louisville this year.

Union Rags is going to be the likely favorite in Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby (Grade 1), and his connections don’t have to worry about what is in the bank. The colt has accumulated $1,070,000 in graded earnings and is assured a spot in the starting gate.

Others in the race, including the highly regarded El Padrino ($200,000 in graded earnings), could use a nice pay day.

While a field of seven looks likely for the Florida Derby, Sunday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) drew a crowd, with a field of 14 set to go.

The betting favorite figures to be Mark Valeski, who lost the Risen Star (Grade 3) in a photo to El Padrino.

With just $50,000 in graded earnings, the colt needs to win to get in, although a runner-up finish would probably do the trick.

Here is a look at the major contenders for this year’s Run for the Roses (and odds from Bovada):

1. Union Rags – current odds: 4/1

Trained by Michael Matz, who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby, this colt is going in his final prep race on Saturday in the Florida Derby (Grade 1). The colt is proven over the surface, having won the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) on Feb. 26. He figures to get a stern test facing six talented foes, including El Padrino and Take Charge Indy. All signs are pointing toward a career top effort on Saturday which should set things up nicely for this guy come the first Saturday of May. He ran well over the Churchill Downs surface last fall in his lone defeat, beaten a head by Hansen on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1).

2. Creative Cause – current odds: 10/1

This colt was another length back in third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Juvenile, which certainly is looking as a key race on the Derby trail this year. He came back three months late to finish third in the seven-furlong San Vicente (Grade 3), then moved forward nicely when stretching back out to a route in a good-looking score in the San Felipe (Grade 2) on March 10. It looks as if trainer Mike Harrington will keep the colt in Southern California for his last prep, which will come in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

3. El Padrino – current odds: 9/1

It seemed logical for the Risen Star (Grade 2) winner to stick to Fair Grounds and come back in the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) on Sunday, but trainer Todd Pletcher is electing to go up against Union Rags on Saturday in the Florida Derby. That should give us a good idea of just how good this guy is as the Risen Star field was not one of the deeper Derby preps. The colt needs to pick up a check, as he is sitting with $200,000 in graded earnings, which puts him around No. 14 on the list. It means he could be passed with all of the rich preps coming up over the next couple of weeks.

4. Hansen – current odds: 10/1

Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner seemed destined for the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct, but now it appears he is going to make his final Derby prep on polytrack in the Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland on April 14. His trainer, Mike Maker, likes the idea of keeping him in Kentucky as opposed to shipping him to New York. Don’t forget last year’s upset Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom made his final prep on polytrack.

5. Alpha – current odds: 12/1

The game of musical chairs continues for some of the top Derby candidates, and Alpha is now pointing toward the Wood instead of the Louisiana Derby, according to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Currently at Palm Meadows in Florida, McLaughlin changed his plans when he heard that Hansen was not going to the Wood and instead to the Blue Grass. Alpha is coming off wins in the Count Fleet and Withers (Grade 3) at Aqueduct, although both of those victories were on the winterized inner track, and the Wood will be contested on the main dirt track.

6. Secret Circle – current odds: 15/1

A winner of five of six starts, he is perfect in two trips to Oaklawn Park, winning the faster division of the Southwest (Grade 3) followed by a victory in the Rebel (Grade 2). He will head to Hot Springs a third time on April 14 to go in the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1). Much has been made about this guy’s pedigree, and perhaps 1 ¼ miles is a tad bit too far for the colt. However, he does have Bob Baffert in his corner. Baffert is recovering from a heart attack he suffered while in Dubai, where he will stay to recuperate for the next 10 days. He is planning on being at the track Saturday for the Dubai World Cup (Grade 1) where he has one of the favorites in Game On Dude. From intensive care in Dubai to the winners circle in Kentucky five weeks later would make for one heck of a story.

7. Went the Day Well – current odds: 20/1

The colt won the Spiral Stakes (Grade 2) last out over polytrack in his stakes debut for Team Valor and trainer Graham Motion. That group teamed up to win last year’s Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom, who used the Spiral as his final prep. The connections mentioned the colt may make another start before the Derby, but the window is tight. Barry Irwin, chief executive of Team Valor, said the Lexington (Grade 3) on April 21 is a possibility. The colt has a ton of upside potential and will be flying under the radar.

8. Daddy Nose Best – current odds: 20/1

I honestly did not give this colt much of a shot in the Sunland Derby (Grade 3) last Sunday and he proved me wrong, beating Isn’t He Clever by ¾ of a length while Southwest winner Castaway was a disappointing seventh. The colt was busy last year as a juvenile, making eight starts, but winning just twice. He has matured, winning the El Camino Real (Grade 3) two back over a synthetic surface and is now a stakes winner on conventional dirt. He is in good hands with the Steve Asmussen barn and earned a 100 Beyer speed figure for his win on Sunday. It was just the fourth triple digit Beyer we have seen in major Derby preps so far this year.

Key Derby preps this weekend:

March 31

The Florida Derby (Grade 1), Gulfstream Park ($1,000,000)

April 1

The Louisiana Derby (Grade 2), Fair Grounds ($1,000,000)

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

For the third time in the last five years subscribers using Mike’s Reports had the winner of the Kentucky Derby. In 2011 Mike nailed Animal Kingdom with his top pick, the upset winner paying $43.20 to win, $19.60 to place & $13.00 to show!

In the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Mike hit Super Saver with his top pick, the winner returning $18.00, $8.80, and $6.00.

Street Sense was his top pick in 2007, the winner returning $11.80, $6.40, and $4.60.