What will happen to the Winnipeg Jets’ attendance if they stop winning?

Ahead of the Winnipeg Jets’ home game against the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman addressed the assembled media, flanked, as always, by right-hand man Bill Daly. The commish wasted no time in providing soundbites, calling the Manitoban capital “a place where hockey matters” during an opening salvo that was almost defensive in tone. “Ownership has made extraordinary commitments to the Jets, to [Canada Life Centre], to the downtown area,” Bettman said. “I’m not sure why people are speculating, somehow, that they are not going to be here.” 

On a bitter night that reached a -20°F windchill, Bettman, in town for his annual visit, praised the enthusiasm and involvement of Jets’ chairman Mark Chipman. He said the NHL Board of Governors has no beef with the Winnipeg market. He even claimed he and Daily were not there to assuage fears but to “visit and take in a game.” 

Though it seemed Bettman would throw the Jets a PR softball with his “all is well” refrain, there were reminders during the 20-minute Q&A of the mild panic Chipman caused last week when he claimed the Jets’ current attendance trend was unsustainable for the future.

“The attendance needs to improve, but it will … I have confidence in this community,” Bettman said. He stopped just short of adding “to buy more tickets,” but the call to action became more overt a few minutes later. “Get over your anxiety and come to games,” he implored, only half joking. 

Bettman was referring, of course, to the 27% three-year decrease in season ticket sales Chipman revealed last week. The business magnate has had to hit the phones personally to ask why so many season tickets are lapsing and has many working theories. Season-ticket holders age into parenthood and constant busyness, corporate interests aren’t as supportive in Winnipeg as in larger metropolitan markets, and the novelty of the franchise’s return has worn away with familiarity. All are true to some extent, but why isn’t anyone pointing out that what happens on the ice affects the financial returns off it? 

Bettman mentioned the respective extensions of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele and the likelihood Winnipeg will appear in its sixth postseason in seven tries this spring. Daly called the Jets a “model franchise.” Both seemed to imply hockey could not be the problem, but it takes a short memory to ignore what a slippery slope Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff faced last summer. 

‘Chevy’ watched his team fall apart late in 2022-23 despite jousting with the Dallas Stars for pole position in the Central Division for much of the season. After the rival Colorado Avalanche (who won the division at the death) and Minnesota Wild leapfrogged them, the Jets, relegated to an eighth seed, were no match for the eventual Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights in the postseason. When veteran coach Rick Bowness lambasted his men’s lack of pride after the five-game defeat, it seemed to all the world that Cheveldayoff would hit the rebuild button right in time for fans to decide whether they would renew their ticket packages.

In the end, Chevy masterfully faked out the hockey world by deciding that only Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois, not Scheifele or Hellebuyck, had to go to reset the culture in the Jets’ locker room. With Winnipeg tied for the Central Division lead with games in hand and trade acquisitions Gabriel Vilardi (16g, 30P in 36GP) and Sean Monahan (6G in 10GP) rounding out perhaps the most complete forward group the team has iced since its return to Canada, one has to think fan interest will rebound healthily ahead of the 2024-2025 campaign. Vezina favorite Hellebuyck (2.25 GAA, .925SV%) and the Jets lead the NHL in scoring defense and will likely make it far into the future before the temptation to rebuild rears its head again.

What happens then? There are other factors, but the bottom line is that after the first seemingly regressive offseason since the Jets stopped being a “new team,” they have struggled to sell out the smallest permanent arena in the NHL. If this is what happens when Winnipeg almost rebuilds, can they ever afford an actual dry spell? That question must bother Chipman and, more importantly, Bettman. Teams that aren’t playing win hockey struggle at the gate, and in Canadian markets especially, that is a huge problem.

Cheveldayoff’s penchant for drafting, turning over his roster when necessary, and finding gems like Vilardi (part of the return for malcontent center Dubois) has kept the Jets in the fight for much of their recent history. With sniper Kyle Connor and top blueliner Josh Morrissey still in their 20s, that should continue to be the case for years to come. It might have to be for hockey to survive in Winnipeg long-term.