The new Maple Leafs lines don’t seem to be working for John Tavares

The idea of splitting up Matthews and Marner doesn’t seem to have a lot interest either and maybe it’s a bit more about considering that Bertuzzi and Domi might be the start of a decent 3rd option together, that leads to Nylander and Tavares staying together while Matthews still stays with Marner. Most of the issues in the execution of the plan seem to come down the absence of one player and when he returns the Leafs have the opportunity to see what the real top nine looks like.

The return of Calle Jarnkrok seemingly opens up an opportunity to see what Toronto can really get out of John Tavares. Besides Bertuzzi and Nylander, Jarnkrok is the forward that Tavares has done the best with this season and putting him with Tavares and either Bertuzzi or Nylander seemingly gives Toronto a legitimate third line option. Even if Jarnkrok isn’t the answer for the Tavares line, Jarnkrok becomes a strong option to play with Bertuzzi and Domi instead of Nylander, giving them a more reliable third line, while Toronto attempts to role with a McMann-Tavares-Nylander line instead, although Toronto also needs to prepare for when the McMann bubble bursts, and he becomes a strong fourth line option until his next offensive heater.

Dubas has the right idea with supporting Tavares as he ages and confronts limitations and presently it seems like Sheldon Keefe might be asking too much of his captain to carry two inexperienced, somewhat streaky scorers and on a line devoid of playmakers, creating offence will be a struggle and McMann isn’t going to be capable of doing all the defensive work himself. Even if Sheldon Keefe remains attached to the Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander line, swapping out Robertson for Jarnkrok when he’s ready gives the line some more responsibility and a bit more comfort in carrying and distributing the puck. (That looks to be the initial starting place for Jarnkrok and Robertson practiced as an extra on Friday.)

It is unlikely that the Leafs have the resources to make an upgrade at centre this trade deadline, but the idea of giving either Domi or Tavares the opportunity to move to the wing from time to time is something that needs to be considered and given the lack of centre options, maybe the solution in the short term comes via a strong puck controlling winger instead, though the trade market isn’t overflowing with them either.

In the long term it is going to be important to for the Leafs to look at whether their captain is going to be a part of their plans beyond next season. If he isn’t, that needs to be a tough conversation and one that potentially involves the captain being open to exploring trade options. This doesn’t seem particularly likely as all signs point to Toronto being where Tavares would like to end his career and his next contract being far more friendly to the team.

So in that case, it needs to be planned for what Tavares’ right sized role looks like on the Leafs knowing that his contract next year is going to continue to be a lightning rod. The decision needs to be made if John Tavares is now a top six left winger or the plans are for him to be a third line centre and plan his offseason development path around that. The Leafs also need to look at a true option for a second line centre and while there will still be limited cap resources, looking at Elias Lindholm should be part of the Leafs plans.

For the first time in a long time the Leafs also have potential internal centre options in development coming up as both Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten could be on path for that assignment, with Minten looking like a potential 3C option as soon as next season. (Cowan seems more likely to be a winger at the pro level). Those entry level contract resources with talent beyond their cap hits will potentially ease the Leafs next season as the final year of Tavares’ $11M contract expires.

Tavares is still a 20+ goal, likely 60 point player this season and most teams would be happy to get those kind of numbers out of their second/third line. It really is just the cap hit and it was always going to look especially bad in the last couple of years. I think the plan was that Leafs fans would be dealing with it better because of all the cups this group was supposed to have won by now.

Data from Natural Stat Trick