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The curious case of Arthur Kaliyev

Originally posted on Hockey Royalty | By Joe Patarino | Last updated 3/22/24

The 2023-24 season for LA Kings winger Arthur Kaliyev has been a trying one. After an encouraging 2022-23 season where he scored 13 goals and 28 points in 56 games, the 22-year-old winger has appeared in 47 games this season, tallying just six goals and eight assists. He has seemingly fallen out of favor under both head coaches this season, spending more time than ever in the press box. In the team’s last 15 games, Kaliyev has suited up for just seven of them.

For a team struggling to score goals, does it make sense to continue to sit one of their few natural snipers?

We’ll start by looking at his most common linemates this season via Natural Stat Trick:

Player	CF% With	xGF% With	On-Ice SH%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	57.34	62.22	5.5
Phillip Danault	60.73	61.6	9.91
Alex Laferriere	56.49	59.23	4.4

Kaliyev has spent most of his time in the middle-six and his on-ice metrics at 5-on-5 are certainly not bad. As has been the case with seemingly anyone on Pierre-Luc Dubois’ line, the on-ice shooting percentage is in the tank (aided by Kaliyev’s career-low individual shooting percentage of 3.85%). But as far as controlling possession and shot quality? No problems there.

In fact, among LA Kings players who have played at least ten games, check out the leaders in on-ice CF% and xGF%:

Player	CF%	Player	xGF%
Arthur Kaliyev	57.69	Jacob Moverare	60.63
Phillip Danault	57.43	Arthur Kaliyev	59.94
Trevor Moore	57.36	Brandt Clarke	59.42
Kevin Fiala	56.9	Kevin Fiala	59.31
Brandt Clarke	56.66	Trevor Moore	59.03

(Side note: I’ll let you draw your own conclusions about some of the other names on those lists…)

Over the past two seasons, Kaliyev leads the LA Kings in ixGF/60:

Player	ixG/60
Arthur Kaliyev	1.03
Trevor Moore	0.97
Alex Laferriere	0.95
Carl Grundstrom	0.9

So at the very least, his on-ice numbers aren’t anywhere near bad enough for that to be a justification for why he’s not in the lineup.

Often, we hear of his defensive deficiencies. Could that be the case? Well, two different models suggest he grades out just fine defensively:

That last player card may give us a hint as to what it could be.

I have opined in the past that the LA Kings are a rush-offense team (evidence below) but Arthur Kaliyev isn’t necessarily a rush-offense type of player.

Kaliyev isn’t known for his strong skating, particularly his north-south speed. If you look at the Andy & Rono player card above, his transition play is quite poor. When cross-referencing that with some data from All Three Zones, it checks out:

Per the All Three Zones tracking, Kaliev is below average in controlled entries and among the lowest in the NHL in zone entries that lead to scoring chances this season.

It’s always felt like something has just been missing with Kaliyev. But the more we unpack things, perhaps he’s just not a stylistic fit for how the LA Kings play hockey.

Additionally, for whatever reason, his power play impacts aren’t as good this season. As we see below from HockeyViz, his shots on the power play are coming from further out than last season:

And yet, even if he isn’t a stylistic fit, he’s still fourth on the team in primary assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Looking ahead, one has to wonder what the future holds for Kaliyev in Los Angeles. He was mentioned on numerous occasions on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast by Elliotte Friedman as wanting a change of scenery. As a Restricted Free Agent at the end of the season, there’s likely going to be plenty of trade speculation again this summer. There remains intriguing upside with Kaliyev, but if he doesn’t fit the LA system then it may make sense for the team to move on.

In the short term, with Alex Turcotte‘s status uncertain, this may present an opportunity for Kaliyev to get back into Jim Hiller‘s good graces. This could be his last chance to make a good impression with the organization.

Data via: Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey, Andy & Rono

Main Photo Credit: Lucas Peltier

This article first appeared on Hockey Royalty and was syndicated with permission.

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