Summer synopsis: Florida Panthers

The Florida Panthers were a surprise Cinderella story this past spring as they reached the Stanley Cup Finals for just the second time in franchise history. It wasn’t a shocker to see them in the finals, but what was shocking was the path the team took to become the Eastern Conference’s representative in the final series. Florida knocked off the best regular season team of all time in seven games and then quickly dispatched the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round after the Leafs had won their first playoff series since 2004. Most pundits expected the Carolina Hurricanes to bring the Panthers back to reality, but Florida dispatched the Canes in a dominant sweep to reach the finals. Unfortunately for the Panthers the clock struck midnight on the fairy tale, and they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Vegas Golden Knights.

This offseason a lot of the storylines revolving around the team were the injuries they were going to need to navigate to start the 2023-24 season. Matthew Tkachuk is likely to miss the start of the season and Aaron Ekblad could as well. Head coach Paul Maurice has cautioned the teams fans that the club will be in a dog fight to make the playoffs and he likely isn’t wrong. Florida made the playoffs by a single point, and a lot of the teams that fell behind them are much improved heading into next season.

This offseason the Panthers didn’t have the space to make any big splash and didn’t have any assets to make the big trade. But they tweaked around the edges and made some small moves that could pay off.

Draft

2-63: C Gracyn Sawchyn, Seattle (WHL)
4-127: D Albert Wikman, Farjestad Jr. (Sweden-JR.)
5-159: G Olof Glifford, HV 71 U18 (Sweden-JR. U18)
6–191: D Luke Coughlin, Rimouski (QMJHL)
7–198: LW Stepan Zvyagin, Dinamo-Shinnik Jr. (Russia-JR)

Florida didn’t have many draft picks left after making a litany of moves over the past two seasons. While it isn’t surprising to see teams empty the tank when they are in contention, the Panthers were criticized for mortgaging too much of their future at the 2022 trade deadline in moves they made for Claude Giroux and Ben Chiarot.

The club was still able to make some picks to add to their prospect cupboard. Second-round pick Sawchyn was a big-time player for the top team in the WHL this year as the speedster was a point-a-game player helping the Thunderbirds to a WHL championship. While Sawchyn can get around the ice, he has an awkward way of doing it as his powerful stride isn’t the most aesthetically pleasing. Sawchyn has a good set of hands but isn’t likely to be a top-end offensive player in the NHL, he has a very good chance to be an NHL regular as he does possess a wide-ranging skillset.

With their fourth-round pick the Panthers selected Wikman, a smooth skating player who can already get around the ice like a pro. Outside of his ability to move around, there isn’t much more to his game. He isn’t a great puck mover as he lacks a lot of the offensive instincts to get the puck up the ice with any pace. He could be an NHL player as he does have some of the tools needed, but at this point his future is unclear.

Trade Acquisitions

F Steven Lorentz (San Jose)

As mentioned earlier, Florida didn’t have many assets to move this summer in a trade and they made just one move. The Panthers somewhat surprisingly elected to sell low on former 30-goal scorer Anthony Duclair just a year after he posted 31 goals for Florida. In the salary dump, the Panthers acquired a fifth-round pick as well as forward Steven Lorentz from the San Jose Sharks. The 27-year-old Kitchener, Ontario native posted a career-high 10 goals and nine assists last season for the Sharks while averaging almost 12 minutes a night of ice time on a very bad Sharks team. Lorentz won’t fill the scoresheet, but he is a physical player who will make life difficult for opponents and in Florida, he should be able to play in a role that is much more suitable to his skillset.

UFA Signings

C Rasmus Asplund (One year, $775K)

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (One year, $2.25M)

D Dmitry Kulikov (One year, $1M)

RW William Lockwood (Two years, $1.55M)

D Niko Mikkola (Three years, $7.5M)

D Mike Reilly (One year, $1M)

F Evan Rodrigues (Four years, $12M)

C Kevin Stenlund (One year, $1M)

G Anthony Stolarz (One year, $1.1M)

C Alex True (One year, $775K)

The Panthers targeted several defensemen from the buyout market when they bought low on Ekman-Larsson and Reilly. Ekman-Larsson had a forgettable two years in Vancouver and was bought out by the Canucks in a move that will saddle them with a $2.126M cap hit until 2031. The 32-year-old rearguard is about four years removed from being a top-end defenseman and was in over his head with Vancouver. Now that he isn’t being paid like a number one defenseman, he should be able to slot into a role that is more suitable to his current skillset. Ekman-Larsson should still have some gas in the tank and be able to offer the Panthers decent two-way play at a reasonable cap hit. If he is forced into big minutes, Ekman-Larsson could find himself in a situation not unlike the one he faced with the Canucks.

Reilly was initially a good fit with the Bruins when he was dealt to Boston mid-season in April 2021. So much so, that he signed a three-year $9M deal with the team that turned sour almost immediately after the ink dried on the paperwork. Last season, Reilly dressed in just ten games for Boston and had just a single assist as he found himself on the outside looking in. A healthy scratch for much of the season, Reilly also found himself playing in the AHL for a stretch as the Bruins tried to find creative ways to keep the 30-year-old in game shape. Reilly should be able to provide the Panthers with some depth minutes while not eating much in the way of cap space. With their depth on the left side, it is unlikely that Florida will need the Chicago, Illinois native to play anything close to the 17 minutes a night that Reilly has averaged during his NHL career, but injuries could complicate matters as they did at times last year for Florida.

Evan Rodrigues was supposed to cash in with a lucrative long-term contract last summer but misjudged the free agent market and had to settle for a one-year $2M deal with the Colorado Avalanche. Rodrigues had another good year last year posting 16 goals and 23 assists in 69 games while playing in different roles for the Avalanche. Rodrigues has a terrific track record of being like a Swiss army knife for teams to utilize in many different roles. Rodrigues’ former team the Pittsburgh Penguins really missed his reliability and his ability to play almost anywhere in the lineup and it is something Florida should find useful when navigating injuries and other holes that get created in the lineup. Rodrigues might have signed the most lucrative contract of his career, but he is still a bargain at just $3M per year.

Speaking of former Penguins players, Dmitry Kulikov had a cup of coffee with the Penguins last season after he was acquired in a trade deadline move from Anaheim. The 32-year-old had a largely forgettable campaign as he like everyone else, struggled with the Ducks and found himself getting caved in on most nights. After the trade to Pittsburgh, Kulikov fared much better, but an injury limited him to just six games and the Penguins faded down the stretch as they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006. On the Panthers, he will likely take bottom pairing minutes on a regular basis and should be able to provide the Panthers with a good depth option, albeit one who won’t provide much offensively.

RFA Re-Signings

D Lucas Carlsson (One year, $775K)*

F Grigori Denisenko (Two years, $1.55M)

D Casey Fitzgerald (One year, $775K)*

D John Ludvig (Two years $1.55M)*

C Gerald Mayhew (One year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

The Panthers didn’t have much to worry about in the restricted free agent market as the team took care of most of their business on July 1st. Their highest profile RFA was forward Grigori Denisenko who signed with a slew of other Panthers on July 1st. The 23-year-old forward has dressed in 26 games over parts of three seasons and has yet to score an NHL goal but does have seven assists to his name. Last season the native of Novosibirsk, Russian Federation dressed in a career-high 18 games and posted just three assists. At the AHL level, Denisenko posted 12 goals and 24 assists in 56 games with the Charlotte Checkers, however he was -18. At this point in his career, it doesn’t appear as though the former 15th overall pick will live up to his draft position, but the door isn’t shut on him becoming a productive NHL player.

Departures

D Anthony Bitetto (Unsigned)

C Connor Bunnaman (Kärpät, Finnish Liiga)

F Anthony Duclair (Traded to San Jose)

D Radko Gudas (Anaheim, Three Years, $12M)

F Aleksi Heponiemi (EHC Biel-Switzerland)

F Patric Hornqvist (Retired)

G Alex Lyon (Detroit, Two Years, $1.8M)

RW Givani Smith (San Jose, Two Years, $1.6M)

D Marc Staal (Philadelphia, One Year, $1.1M)

F Colin White (Unsigned)

It's commonplace for teams that go deep in the playoffs to lose an integral part of that team to free agency, and that happened to the Panthers, albeit not as heavy as some team’s experience. Radko Gudas was a force for the Panthers in the playoffs and was a big part of some key moments in their run to the finals. None bigger than his drive to the net on the series-clinching goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Gudas cashed in on his moment and moved to the West Coast to be a leader in the Anaheim Ducks rebuild. Gudas will be well compensated for what he brings to the table but should be able to help teach some of Anaheim’s younger players in much the same way he did with Florida. His loss will sting for Panthers fans as he was a noticeable part of the Panthers team identity, even if it didn’t show up on the scoresheet.

Speaking of leadership, the Panthers lost a few other key leaders in Hornqvist and Staal. Staal was effectively replaced on day with the dept signings of Kulikov and Reilly, while Hornqvist was largely a non-factor for the Panthers last year having dressed in just 22 games and was only able to muster up a goal and two assists. Hornqvist was forced to retire and while they will miss what he brings off the ice, he wasn’t able to offer the Panthers much last season on the ice.

The other key loss for Florida will be Anthony Duclair. He only dressed in 20 games last season but is just a year removed for posting 31 goals in the 2021-22 season. Duclair was a salary cap casualty and could flourish in San Jose if he is able to get healthy once again.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Panthers will have an interesting summer in 2024 as they have a few key free agents and not a ton of cap space to make moves. Now they are slated to have just over $26M available, but they have just two defensemen signed past this year and will have to re-sign Brandon Montour and Sam Reinhart to new deals.

The Sergei Bobrovsky contract has loomed large for a few years now, but the Panthers have always been able to navigate it up until this point. Next summer could be the one in which it becomes prohibitive and problematic should his quality of play decrease.

Florida will be okay if the cap goes up, but if it remains relatively flat, they could see a lot of turnover next year.

Key Questions

Can They Get Back to The Playoffs: Paul Maurice said that Florida will be in tough to make the playoffs and given the improvement of the teams below them in the East (Pittsburgh, Detroit) it is easy to see why. The Penguins were uncharacteristically bad last season, but with Kyle Dubas at the helm they have made monumental changes and should be a playoff team. Detroit shuffled a lot of the furniture around as well and should be better. Can Florida get enough milage out of the remaining core to get back to the playoffs once again? Time will tell.

How Will Injuries Impact The Season? Matthew Tkachuk could barely put on his equipment in the Stanley Cup Finals and will miss the start of the year. Aaron Ekblad suffered multiple injuries in the playoffs and will miss training camp. How will these injuries impact the start of Florida’s season and will they create an overreaction?

Can Bobrovsky Match Last Year’s Success? Bobrovsky found his game in last year’s postseason for the first time in a long time. And while he showed that he can carry a team to the Stanley Cup final, he hasn’t been able to put together much in the way of regular season success having posted a save percentage above .910 only once since joining the Panthers. Will he continue to post elite numbers or will Bobrovsky revert to his previous regular season numbers?