Stars vs. Wild: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Dallas Stars: 2nd in Central Division, 108 points

Minnesota Wild: 3rd in Central Division, 103 points

Schedule (ET)

Monday, April 17: Minnesota at Dallas, 9:30 p.m.
Wednesday, April 19: Minnesota at Dallas, 9:30 p.m.
Friday, April 21: Dallas at Minnesota, 9:30 p.m.
Sunday, April 23: Dallas at Minnesota, 6:30 p.m.
Tuesday, April 25: Minnesota at Dallas, TBD
Friday, April 25: Minnesota at Dallas, TBD
Sunday, April 25: Minnesota at Dallas, TBD

The Skinny

Well, hockey fans, the Stars have aligned and things are about to get Wild.

After nearly closing out the regular season as Central Division champions -- winning six straight games -- Dallas is ready to take on third-seeded Minnesota in what figures to be a heavy battle between two opponents who don’t back down from anything.

The Stars had a happy ending to their regular season, which included the return of Mason Marchment. Jason Robertson set the team's regular-season franchise points record (since moving to Dallas) with 46 goals and 109 points logged in an 82-game span, while Wyatt Johnston found the back of the net 24 times on the year. Those 24 scores tied the league lead for rookie goals. It was a strong season for new head coach Pete DeBoer, one of a few bench bosses who found success in a new city this season.

Things in Minnesota have gone in the right direction for much of the season. Following the All-Star break, the Wild went on a 21-game run that saw them compile a 16-1-4 record. At the trade deadline, the Wild added former Stars’ defenseman John Klingberg from the Anaheim Ducks, one familiar foe in this series who could play a pivotal role.

The season's last stretch of games proved less thrilling, though. The team notched just two wins in their final seven games and to add insult to injury, was forced to play without Joel Eriksson Ek, who is currently week-to-week. Eriksson Ek is arguably one of the best defensive forwards in the league and someone who would play plenty of minutes against the Stars’ top lines if he were healthy.

Regardless of the end skid and the injury, the Wild did make the playoffs and are ready for battle. Head coach Dean Evason, who has been likened to Creed from The Office, has been able to wrangle this group together and push them to success during arduous periods of the campaign. Last season under Evason, Minnesota finished with 113 points -- meaning they had a 10-point drop-off this season.

Head to Head

Dallas: 2-0-2
Minnesota: 2-2-0

The series is pretty even at a glance from the season records. The Stars took two regulation wins over the Wild while losing in two separate shootouts. No shootout in the playoffs, so the Stars are in luck. 

In their first meeting, there were a lot of pucks which found the net. The Wild got away with that one 6-5 in a shootout, but only after they blew a four-goal lead. The next meeting saw the Stars take a 4-1 win. Same result a month later. The Wild closed out the season series with a 2-1 shootout win.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas

Jason Robertson, 109 points
Jamie Benn, 78 points
Joe Pavelski, 77 points
Roope Hintz, 75 points
Miro Heiskanen, 73 points

Minnesota

Kirill Kaprizov, 75 points
Mats Zuccarello, 67 points
Matt Boldy, 63 points
Joel Eriksson Ek, 61 points
Marcus Johansson, 46 points

X-Factor

The big story here is the point total differences between the two teams and the Goals For. The Stars have five players who surpassed the 70-point mark, including a defenseman in Heiskanen. Having several players throughout your lineup who have put up point totals should be considered a good sign for postseason success. After propelling themselves into a six-game winning streak to end the season, the morale in Texas is high.

The Wild will surely need to put goals in the back of the net if they want to keep up with the consistency with which the Stars have scored. According to MoneyPuck.com, at a 5-on-5 variable, the Stars scored 175 Goals For, ranking 14th league-wide compared to the Wild, who have scored 144 and ranked 30th. Where the Wild lack in terms of pure goal-scoring, they make up for in grit and size -- a favorable asset to recent Stanely Cup winning clubs. At 5-on-5, Minnesota allowed the second-fewest high-danger chances against this season, trailing only the Carolina Hurricanes. 

Offense

When looking at base stats, it is wild (no pun intended) to think that Robertson set the franchise regular season point total record; Mike Modano never eclipsed 100 points. Down the lineup, Benn had a significant resurgence. The 33-year-old eclipsed the 50-point mark for the first time since 2018-19 and the 70-point mark for the first time since 2017-18. Benn also notched 33 goals. Last season, he had just 18. The power forward will play a big, physical role in likely battles with Wild tough guy Ryan Reaves. 

Veteran Joe Pavelski will be heavily relied upon to disrupt plays and find the scoresheet. The 38-year-old very nearly surpassed the 50-assist mark for a second straight season. Pavelski was also a vital member of the 2019-20 Stars team that went to the Stanley Cup Final and lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Hintz and newly acquired Max Domi should play pivotal roles for the Stars this series, while Tyler Seguin will look to carry his groove into the playoffs. Further down the line-up, Radek Faksa, Mason Marchment, and Ty Deallandrea will be the defensive-minded forwards that DeBoer can count on.

They will face off against a rough and tough Wild squad that is offensively spearheaded by Russian winger Kirill Kaprizov. After scoring 40 goals this season, Kaprizov figures to be the major contributor for the Wild in this series and the player who the Stars have to shut down. Matt Boldy, 21, notched 31 goals this year, second on the team. During Kaprizov’s absence, Boldly scored 13 goals. With no Eriksson Ek, it really puts the Wild in a vicious chokehold. They will have to rely upon Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Boldy, and Frederick Gaudreau, who has had a solid season and recently signed a five-year extension following a 19-goal and 38-point campaign. Trade deadline acquisition Gustav Nyquist, coming back from injury, will also be a player who can be counted on this series so long as he can maintain his health.

Defense

Heiskanen leading the defensive way in Dallas alongside veteran and former Wild standout Ryan Suter. The Stars can heavily rely upon them to get the job done night in and night out. Further down the lineup, the Stars look to Colin Miller, Esa Lindell, and Jani Hakanpaa to shut down opposing offensive lines. Lindell led the Stars with 1.79 blocked shots per-game. Hakanpaa averaged 1.56, with Suter at 1.40, Heiskanen at 1.22 and Lundkvist at 1.12. Do you see the trend? None of the Stars’ defensemen fears sacrificing his body. Hakanpaa, the large Finnish freight train, led the Stars with 224 hits, 99 more than Dellandrea, who put up 125. With Hakanpaa playing the body and limiting opponents’ space, life gets easier for the Stars.

The Wild added Klingberg, who has notched nine points in 17 games and has seemed to find his game after struggling in Anaheim. Minnesota can also depend upon captain Jared Spurgeon, who is a significant factor on the defense. Spurgeon is a major reason that the Wild could hold such a low high danger chances against percentage. Spurgeon blocked 2.27 shots per game, leading the Wild, but right behind him was Jonas Brodin at 2.17, Jacob Middleton at 1.96, Matt Dumba at 1.47, Jon Merrill at 1.47 and veteran Alex Goligoski at 1.46. The Wilds’ defensive corps averages more blocked shots per game than the Stars' defensive corps.

Can the Wild’s gritty and sandpaper defense shut down the Robertson line and make up for the absence of Eriksson Ek? That might be the deciding factor in the series.

Goaltending

While much of the attention will be focused on whether future Hall-of-Famer Marc-Andre Fleury gets the nod between the pipes for Minnesota, head coach Evason has a tough decision on his hands given Filip Gustavsson’s rise to goaltending heroism. The Swedish netminder has worked one of the hottest goalies in the league since February, posting an 11-2-6 record and a .938 save percentage. In 39 games this season, he has posted a 22-9-7 record while holding a 2.10 goals-against average and a .931 save percentage. Evason rotated goalies throughout the season. Will he do it in the playoffs? Gustavsson has earned the starting gig on merit, but Fleury has been on the big stage multiple times throughout his career, winning three Stanley Cups.

Conversely, the Stars will rely upon young prodigy Jake Oettinger to get the job done. In 62 games this season, the American netminder put up a 37-11-11 record with a 2.37 GAA, a .919 save percentage, plus five shutouts. He almost singlehandedly carried Dallas against the Calgary Flames in Round 1 of the playoffs last spring.

Injuries

The Stars, fortunately, are good on the injury front; they just got Marchment back into the lineup and he has looked solid on a line with Seguin and Domi. Now fully-healthy, this is likely their year if they want to repeat 2020.

Unfortunately, the Wild have had a couple of late injuries depleting their lineup. The team will be without Eriksson Ek, Mason Shaw and Oskar Sudnqvist. While the timelines on all their injuries vary, the Wild will have to depend on other players to get the job done. Marcus Johansson is back practicing and has a good chance to suit up for Game 1.

Intangibles

Just a few short years ago -- with an almost entirely different roster -- the Stars made it to the Stanley Cup Final. Now, with what looks to be a complete club, can Dallas make headway and push forward for another long run? With the careers of Pavelski, Benn and Suter winding down at this juncture, this could be the Stars’ last shot with their veterans before they welcome in a plethora of skilled prospects, like Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque, into the mix. 

The Wild have a lot to prove. After a few critical pickups at the trade deadline, they seem keen to get the job done and emerge from the first round for the first time since 2014-15. General Manager Bill Guerin was aggressive at the deadline and believes in this club very much. Without key players, it will come down to the depth of the Wild. With Gaudreau’s 19 goals this season, he will be called upon. 

Series prediction

It’s hard to ignore what Robertson did this season. He has the fire to hit a sixth gear and ignite the scoresheet in the playoffs. The Stars are riding a good season where they almost were able to take the Central Division throne away from the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Perhaps they will flop out to the heavy-hitting, labor-intensive Wild squad that will surely be in their faces every game, but I think the injuries will eventually prove to be Minnesota's downfall. The Wild will, ultimately, feel the wrath of Robertson.

Dallas in five games.