Should the Canadiens match Hurricanes' offer sheet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi?

Saturda is the deadline for the Montreal Canadiens to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet signed by Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the Carolina Hurricanes. The decision they have is a simple one on its face: pay Kotkaniemi $6.1M for the 2021-22 season or take Carolina’s first- and third-round picks to let him go.

However, it’s much more than just a one-year decision, and it has implications that reach much further than just one player. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has been completely silent since the agreement was announced just under a week ago, though there has been some reporting that the team is testing the market on replacement options should Kotkaniemi end up in Carolina.

With this uncommon situation, we’ve decided to unearth one of our former features: the PHR Panel. This time we’re welcoming Josh Erickson to the panel after he joined PHR earlier this offseason, and Brian La Rose, Zach Leach and I will all give our thoughts as normal on what Montreal should do.

Q: Should Montreal match the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet?

Brian La Rose: 

There are two key questions where the answer determines what Montreal should do. Is there a capable second-line center who can be acquired via trade and will be around for more than a year or two? Also, if there is indeed the possibility of an extension below that average annual value with Carolina as has been suggested, including by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast, is that also available to Montreal?

If the Habs are unable to land an impact center elsewhere, they may have to bite the bullet as their younger internal options aren’t ready to step into that type of role. The Jonathan Drouin experiment didn’t work the last time they tried it, and there’s no reason to think it will now. On the extension front, if there’s an acceptable one that can effectively be worked out — nothing can be made official until January — then matching for this season knowing a better contract is on the horizon becomes more palatable.

If there’s a reasonable trade waiting for Bergevin that lands him a capable second center behind Nick Suzuki, then walking away and taking the two picks makes sense. Otherwise, with how weak their depth down the middle would be (and there aren’t any impact centers in the pipeline either), the Canadiens may very well have to match despite the overpayment and the potential for a much messier cap situation moving forward. With things dragging out this long, it doesn’t seem like a viable trade is presenting itself so matching starts to look a bit more viable as a result for the Canadiens, but it will undoubtedly be a tough pill to swallow.

Zach Leach: 

The Canadiens should match the Kotkaniemi offer sheet. It may not be the more reasonable of the two choices, but then again this was not a reasonable move in the first place. The Hurricanes clearly have interest in Kotkaniemi, but this offer sheet is all about revenge and embarrassment. Carolina made that perfectly clear with the manner in which it announced and subsequently responded to the news of the offer sheet on social media. If Montreal does not match the offer, then it is making the Hurricanes just the second team to successfully offer sheet a player since the turn of the century. The Habs are admitting that Carolina did a better job of poaching a young impact player than they did two years ago. They are surrendering.

Even if Kotkaniemi is not worth $6.1M, which no one believes that he is right now, the Canadiens are giving up a promising 21-year-old prospect whom they selected with the No. 3 pick just three years ago, and moreover, he is going to what is suddenly a bitter rival. The Hurricanes may already have a handshake agreement on a more accurately priced extension with Koktaniemi as well. The young center has tremendous possession numbers, has shown flashes of immense scoring ability, and is filling out his frame and becoming a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi could still be a star in the NHL, even if the early results at a very young age have been unspectacular. He is certainly worth more than late first- and third-round picks, especially to a Montreal team that is thin down the middle. Even if the Canadiens flip that draft pick compensation for a replacement for Kotkaniemi, they are doing so with the rest of the league knowing exactly what is going on and will not receive fair value and likely not adequately address the departure.

Sure, there are serious cap implications for the Canadiens. However, in the short term, they can make room for Kotkaniemi to begin the year, even with a full 23-man roster, by placing Shea Weber on LTIR and burying Paul Byron and Cedric Paquette. Montreal could also keep Kotkaniemi, a center it desperately needs, and instead trade a superfluous winger such as Artturi Lehkonen. Might things be tight, short term and long term, by accommodating Kotkaniemi’s cap hit? Definitely, but if the Hurricanes are willing to make adjustments, then so too should the Canadiens. Allowing Kotkaniemi to walk and replacing him with another high-cost trade acquisition doesn’t make much cap sense either.

Any result in which the Canadiens do not match the offer sheet is a win for the Hurricanes and a loss for the Canadiens, and frankly, Montreal needs a win. This all began with a poorly constructed offer sheet two years ago for Sebastian Aho that ended up being a favor to the Hurricanes. A better offer could have landed the team the franchise center that it has been looking for. Montreal moved on, made different choices with the forwards and surprised everyone with a run to the Stanley Cup this season. However, the Habs fell short and now are set to return to the lion’s den that is the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. Their offseason has been defined by a controversial draft choice and several free agent contracts whose values were worthy of skepticism. The Canadiens do not need another blemish this season. Maybe Kotkaniemi doesn’t pan out in the long term, but this is about more than just one player. It is about the image of the club and the morale in the locker room. The Canadiens need to assert themselves and demand some respect when the Hurricanes showed little. They can do that by matching the offer.

Josh Erickson: 

There are so many reasons why Montreal’s matching of the Kotkaniemi offer sheet would be completely nonsensical.

Cap space is the most obvious and pressing issue. While Montreal could currently accommodate Kotkaniemi’s $6.1M cap hit with its LTIR situation, the team wouldn’t be able to all season. Byron won’t be out the entire year and will come off LTIR at some point, leaving only Weber’s $7.85M cap hit on LTIR. With Montreal already spending $2.27M into its LTIR pool, an additional $6.1M caused by Kotkaniemi wouldn’t make the team cap-compliant. Even as it stands, Montreal’s active roster only has 19 skaters (Chris Wideman being the likely healthy scratch).

It also doesn’t make a lot of sense to drastically change the team’s makeup to retain Kotkaniemi. The team’s demonstrated a commitment to head coach Dominique Ducharme, who hasn’t developed the best relationship with Kotkaniemi at this point in his career. Selling off assets in order to retain a player whose future with the club remains uncertain past this season, especially one with a $6.1M qualifying offer, doesn’t seem like the best position to take from an asset management standpoint.

It all stands to say that the first- and third-round picks are far more valuable to the team at this point in time than Kotkaniemi at a $6.1M cap hit and qualifying offer. There’s no guarantee that Montreal would be able to receive that return for Kotkaniemi in a future trade.

Gavin Lee:

As you can see from my colleagues, this situation has produced drastically different opinions. That’s exactly what a well-constructed offer sheet is supposed to do: make it a difficult decision on the original team, which then will have to take a gamble one way or the other. There’s no clear answer here for the Canadiens like there was with the Aho offer sheet two years ago.

The simple fact is that Montreal is trying to win right now. You don’t go out and sign Mike Hoffman and David Savard if you’re willing to spend a year developing young talent. The Canadiens want to give Carey Price the best chance to win a Stanley Cup right now, and frankly, I don’t see how letting Kotkaneimi walk helps in that pursuit. Unless there is a legitimate difference-maker out there whom you think you can land with those additional assets — someone like Jack Eichel — sure, let him walk and flip the picks. But if you’re going to turn around and trade for someone like Christian Dvorak? Just match the offer and take your chances with an extension negotiation down the road.

The idea that Kotkaniemi is a bust is misguided. If anything, it’s just that his development was rushed by the Canadiens in the first place due to how much they believed in his talent. He turned 21 in July and has already played in 200 NHL games, including 29 postseason contests. He may never become the Anze Kopitar that people compared him to in his draft year — which was always a bit ridiculous — but the idea that he’ll never become more than a third-line center is still very premature.

There is also a mechanism that could get the $6.1M qualifying offer down a bit, though that may provide little comfort to fans that have already made up their minds on Kotkaniemi. If he fails to live up to that kind of a contract, the Canadiens could elect salary arbitration in the usually unused first window in lieu of a qualifying offer and retain his rights with 85% — $5.185M — of his contract value. Suddenly that becomes a little more palatable, though it can only be done once in a player’s career, and it doesn’t guarantee that salary.

It’s not a situation I’d want to be in, but unless Montreal has a replacement — and a good one, not just a middle-six player — waiting in the wings,  it should match the offer.