Should Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg be nervous about the UFA market?

It’s the third week of July and North America is in the throes of a mega heat wave. Yet here we are, still pondering what will happen next in the NHL. Key free agents are available. Salary cap space is still trying to be found. And one NHL team still needs a head coach. There’s plenty to think about in this week’s Musings.

Calgary is burning.

Tough spot for Flames GM Brad Treliving. He did everything possible to keep Johnny Gaudreau in Calgary, but ultimately couldn’t retain the franchise’s best player. And then the Flames were hit with another gut punch when Matthew Tkachuk informed the club that he is not willing to sign a long-term contract.

It’s exactly how I expected things to play out. I thought that if Gaudreau left Calgary, Tkachuck would follow suit. It’s unfortunate for the Flames, but it’s the reality of losing your best player. There’s a cascade effect.

I think we’re entering a new era where players are willing to look like the bad guy in order to get what they truly want. Tkachuk’s honesty – whether fans like it or not – at least gives the Flames time to craft an exit strategy from the player. And for Tkachuk, it gives him some control of where he lands. Teams will only trade for him if they know he’ll sign long-term. Smart business from the native of St. Louis.

The entire situation underscores how difficult it is for Canadian markets to retain top-end talent. And in particular, American talent. Take your pick on Gaudreau, Tkachuk, J.T. Miller, or Auston Matthews: in their heart of hearts, do you really think they want to play in Canada? Especially after COVID? Players in Canada were subject to a level of restriction that seemed ludicrous when compared to America. They haven’t forgotten.

I love Canada. I love the passion Canadians have for hockey. But ponder this: if you’re an American NHL player, and you have the choice to play in Dallas or Montreal, where do you sign? Dallas is going to win that battle every time if the money and opportunity are relatively equal. No state tax, great weather, a lack of hyper-intense scrutiny by fans and media, no fear of governmental restrictions, easy access for friends and family – do I need to continue?

There is a very real sense of Canadian exceptionalism when it comes to hockey. And I think most American hockey players have a true respect for what the sport means to people north of the border. But it doesn’t mean players have a burning desire to work there.

I can’t tell if Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg misread the market or if they’re smart for waiting to sign.

I guess we’ll never really know until they put pen to paper. But it’s been a week since free agency opened on July 13 and both remained unsigned. And if I’m Kadri or Klingberg, I’d be a little nervous.

Maybe the initial offers weren’t what either player expected. And some things still need to shake out in the market. There are teams looking to open up salary cap space – but it’s not easy. But if you’re Kadri or Klingberg, how many teams are left that you really want to sign with?

Usually the biggest deals are handed out on the first or second day of free agency. Teams have cap space and don’t want to miss out on their top targets. There’s a plan A, B, and C on the table.

At this point, are Kadri and Klingberg ‘Plan D’ for teams? It’s hard to believe given their talent level. Both players would instantly make an NHL team better. But rosters have largely filled. And dollars are dwindling.

I go back to my own rule: the first offer across the table is usually the best. Make no mistake, Kadri and Klingberg are still going to get paid. But it might not be with a team they expected or desired at the start of free agency. And the dollars might not coincide with expectations.

There’s lots of work to be done in San Jose for Mike Grier, but the wheels are in motion.

First on the priority list: hiring a new coach. The Sharks have reportedly interviewed Spencer Carbery and Ryan Warsofsky, young coaches with a ton of upside. Carbery did an excellent job in AHL Hershey before joining the Toronto Maple Leafs staff last season, and Warsofsky is fresh off an AHL Calder Cup championship with the Chicago Wolves.

I think Grier is on the right track. This isn’t about giving young coaching talent a chance. It’s about finding the right voice for a team that has looked rudderless for several seasons. The Sharks need leadership. And I think a lot of teams are looking at the relationship Jared Bednar has with his players in Colorado as a blueprint.

Bednar started his coaching career in the ECHL and worked his way up the hockey ladder, winning championships at every level. There’s a humility to him not displayed by some of the big name NHL coaches that have been around forever. And I think both Carbery and Warsofsky fit that same mold. 

Today’s player is motivated by a coach that knows the game inside and out. From systems to skills sessions, players crave feedback and communication. But the players also want someone they can confide in. They want to feel comfortable in their own skin. The right coach can make that happen.

The coaching hiring will be important for Grier. But the entire organization needed a cleansing, and it’s already begun. The Sharks recently parted ways with Doug Wilson, Jr., who was the team’s director of scouting.

To me, it’s no surprise given how poorly San Jose has drafted and developed players in recent memory. And I’m no fan of nepotism. Fathers don’t hire their own sons based purely on merit. I don’t care what school they’ve been to, or what their experience is. It’s just a bad look. And when the results aren’t there, it’s even worse.

But back to the on-ice product: trading Brent Burns to Carolina was the first step in the rebuilding process for Grier. And I’m sure he would like to get rid of a few more onerous contracts. It won’t be easy. But to me, there’s a real sense of change in the Sharks organization. It was overdue.