Shorthanded Avalanche Implode 7-4 in loss to Dallas Stars

Most nights, when you score four goals, you can expect to, at least, be headed to overtime. Not so in Sunday night’s loss to the Dallas Stars, wherein the overmatched Colorado Avalanche surrendered seven goals on home ice. This loss likely means the Central Division title will belong to the Stars, barring an unforeseen collapse in Texas. 

Here are the key takeaways from Sunday night’s loss:

323 B.C.E.

If you haven’t already noticed, Alexandar Georgiev is in a bit of a funk. The Avalanche goalie has gone from early-season darling to a common scapegoat for the team’s shortcomings in any game they lose. We previously discussed whether it was time to go to rookie backup Justus Annunen. All of this dogpiling of a starter who was in the Vezina conversation just last year—is it warranted?

Let’s examine the underlying statistics to try and paint a more precise picture of Georgiev’s struggles Sunday night.

Georgiev finished the game with 30 saves on 36 shots against for a save percentage of 0.833%. This year’s average save percentage for all goaltenders is .904, not good enough.

So, let’s look deeper and examine two other statistics: Expected Goals Against (EGA) and High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%). The Avalanche did not do a stellar job on defense in front of their goalie, but given the number and danger of the chances, Sunday night’s 36 shots on goal resulted in an EGA of 4.89.

Not great, allowing six (technically 6.34) goals on 4.89 expected, but maybe those chances Sunday were especially dangerous. High-danger chances were certainly the bread and butter for Dallas on Sunday night, scoring four of their six non-empty netters in high-danger areas.

Georgiev faced 17 high-danger shots and saved 13 of them for a HDSV% of .765. The Average NHL goalie this year posts .806 HDSV%, so while the Avalanche needs to tighten up their net front, they are getting below-average performance from Georgiev in high-danger situations.

So far, we can already see that a very deep dive into the analytics reveals Georgiev was not even league average in Sunday night’s collapse, but that isn’t what most fans will notice. What has Georgiev in the crosshairs of many Avalanche observers are the stinkers. You know what I mean, the goals that you look at with the eye test and think, “My beer league goalie makes that save more often than not!”

The advanced stats show this, too. We don’t have to observe only high-danger chances. We can examine medium-danger (MDSV%) and low-danger (LDSV%) save percentages independently. Let’s eliminate the chances where the defense let Georgiev down and just hone in on the saves you expect a goalie to make more often than not.

Georgiev faced 11 medium-danger chances and saved ten on Sunday for a MDSV% of .909. The average for NHL goalies this year is .866, so .909 is solid; nothing to criticize Georgiev for there. Georgiev faced seven low-danger shots, and teams would expect a starting goaltender to save all non-dangerous shots (think dump-ins on net, weak point shots from defenders, and shots going less than 10 mph and trickling in) for 1.000 LDSV%. Georgiev, however, only saved six of seven on Sunday for a LDSV% of 0.857. Yikes.

The above isn’t meant to be an advertisement for analytics, though perhaps it is, but rather an indictment of Alexandar Georgiev’s recent play. It is easy for fans and media to overly criticize a goaltender who is getting shelled because the team in front of him isn’t protecting their ice. This isn’t that. Georgiev is just not good enough to win games right now. This Avalanche team deserves better in net.

Le Tornade t Mon Ami Ont Echoué

Throughout the strong stretch of play following the trade deadline, The Avalanche defense was bolstered by Samuel Girard and Josh Manson, emerging as an elite shutdown pairing. Tonight, that pairing spun all the way out.

Beyond being out for goals against, Girard, in particular, made a series of ghastly turnovers that ended up in the back of the Avalanche net. Sometimes, you have an off night. It happened Sunday, but this pairing needs to return to form moving into the playoffs.

Palate Cleanser Takeaway

The good news is on the injury front. Sunday night, the Avalanche looked overmatched by the Dallas Stars despite scoring four goals, but that was in no small part a result of Mikko Rantanen and Miles Wood missing the action. Rantanen is listed as day-to-day in concussion protocol. However, head coach Jared Bednar said he “Worked out on the ice this morning and is feeling good” and stated he expects Rantanen to return for the playoffs, if not much sooner.

Wood tweaked his lower body in some way with just under six minutes to go against Edmonton on Friday night, but he is expected back before the playoffs. If Dallas and Colorado meet in the playoffs, it won’t be these two lineups that clashed Sunday Night in Ball Arena.

Looking Ahead

The Avalanche will host the fading Minnesota Wild (37-30-10) on Tuesday, April 9, at Ball Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. MDT.

Highlights