Pasta for lunch sounds pretty tasty

We start the week with the NHL still at the forefront of professional action, and given it is Presidents Day, we're treated to some afternoon puck today. With how good some of the early games looked, we had to get a jump on the bets and get this out to you all a bit earlier today.

Expect a lot of action between Florida-Anaheim

Florida is in a position to pummel Anaheim, as we have a meeting between the team averaging the most shots on goal per game at home in the Panthers and the team allowing the most per game with Anaheim. It's as clear of an intersection as we get, and the goal-scoring numbers aren't too shabby either. The Panthers are hardly a defensive rock themselves, and the Ducks have been a bit feisty of late. As such, we project plenty of action.

Florida-Anaheim over 7 goals (-105 DK)

We know this sounds high, and it is probably the highest over/under you will ever get for an NHL game, but it's for good reason. These two met back in November, with Florida winning 5-3. All the numbers suggest a similar outcome is in store.

Florida has averaged 4.5 goals and allowed 3.0 per game in its last 10 at home. Anaheim has allowed 3.8 and scored 3.1 per game through its past 10 as the visitors. That suggests to us each team is good for at least three, with Florida looking particularly good for 4-5 goals.

What puts this over the edge is penalties. Both teams rank among some of the heavier-penalized teams in the NHL, and they compound that issue with two struggling penalty kills. It's a volume game. Hand both of these teams 3-4 power plays, and it seems they should each find a goal in that scenario. That gives us the confidence to bet the over here and root on an offensive explosion.

We love us some Pasta thanks to the power play 

The other early game is between Ottawa and Boston, and there's a clear angle that favors the Bruins. Over the past 10 games, the Senators are handing out 4.6 power play opportunities per game, by far the most in the NHL.

Their penalty issues have been mounting over the past two weeks, and it opens up a chance for us to bet a shots on goal prop with confidence. When you can reasonably project 4+ power plays coming for a team, it's far easier to then focus on a certain guy to be involved.

The man of the hour is none other than David Pastrnak. Pasta, as he's affectionately known, is the heartbeat of this Bruins power-play offense. Over the past 10 games, Pastrnak has tallied 16 shots on the power play, with the next closest player at seven. With the forecast calling for a handful of man-up advantages, it's safe to assume Pastrnak is finding a few shots when given the chance. Tack that on to his usual volume throughout the game, and it makes targeting him a slam dunk for this afternoon.

For good measure, Pasta has loved seeing Ottawa, going over his SOG line in five of the last six meetings.

Betting: David Pastrnak over 4.5 SOG (+105 MGM)

Enjoy your Monday, let's win some bets!

In the news ...

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. wins Daytona 500 — In what became the longest Daytona 500 race in history, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. inched out Joey Logano for the win following a crash on the final lap that had the race end in a caution. Thanks to a timely push from Christopher Bell, Stenhouse was able to get enough out of his car despite no more fuel in what became the final lap. This is Stenhouse's first win at Daytona, and he was +3500 to win.

Jayson Tatum makes All-Star history in MVP effort — Team Giannis took down Team LeBron in the NBA All-Star Game last night, and Jayson Tatum's 55-point game was a big reason why. Tatum set the record for most points ever scored in the All-Star Game en route to winning MVP honors. Tatum has now become the first player in NBA history to have a 50-point game in the playoffs, regular season and All-Star Game. 

Kevin Love signing with Miami Heat — Kevin Love was bought out by Cleveland a few days ago and has quickly found himself a new home in Miami, expecting to sign with the team once he clears waivers. Love brings championship experience to a Heat team currently sitting at seventh in the Eastern Conference and +1900 to make the Finals. Miami is the league's lowest-scoring team, and the hope is that the additions of two offensive-minded bigs in Love and Cody Zeller will help bolster the offense.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll