Oilers’ Knoblauch Must Avoid Previous Coaching Staff’s Playoff Errors

After starting the season 3-9-1, the Oilers replaced Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch, who has coached the team to a 46-17-5 record since taking over. This season will be Knoblauch’s first time coaching in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and it will be imperative for him to avoid making the same mistakes the previous coaching staff made.

Oilers Line Matching in the Playoffs

In the second round of the 2023 Playoffs, the Golden Knights’ top line torched the Oilers. The trio of Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault outscored them 7-1 at 5v5. Edmonton did an excellent job when this trio wasn’t on the ice; no other line for Vegas scored more than two 5v5 goals over the six games. As the series progressed, shutting down the top line became a massive priority for the Oilers.

Here are the players with the highest time on ice (TOI) at 5v5 against Eichel in the series along with some of their on-ice numbers:

The defensive pair of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci had no answer for Eichel, but Woodcroft continuously matched them up against Vegas’ top player. Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were the top three forwards in TOI against Eichel, but all of them were outscored badly in that matchup.

Woodcroft’s preferred line matches didn’t work, but who would have been a better choice to take on the top line? Here are some results against Eichel at 5v5 from the key under-utilized players in that role:

The only Oilers forwards who had consistent success against the Golden Knights top line were Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid. The Oilers out-chanced Vegas 11-6 when McDavid matched up against Eichel and 18-5 when Hyman did. Despite their success, Hyman and McDavid were 9th and 12th, respectively, in TOI against Eichel in the series. Woodcroft’s insistence on avoiding those matchups is a headscratcher. While Brett Kulak, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard were each outscored by Eichel 2-0, they had much better metrics against him than Nurse and Ceci. The Oilers would have benefitted from putting other defensemen in that matchup more often.

Having a deployment strategy go wrong happens to every coach, so the ability to adapt and change when it does go wrong is essential. Woodcroft’s most significant error was failing to make those adjustments. In Game 6, the top five players in 5v5 TOI against Eichel were still Nurse, Draisaitl, Ceci, Nugent-Hopkins, and Yamamoto. McDavid played just 3:15 against him, and Bouchard and Ekholm played even less. Woodcroft stuck to his guns until the bitter end, which was a big part of why they lost the series. If Knoblauch wants to win a Stanley Cup with the Oilers, he needs to be willing to adapt to the matchup game that the opposing coach is playing.

Oilers’ Defensive Zone System

Last season, Woodcroft ran a man-to-man system in the defensive zone. When the puck went below the face-off dots, the Oilers’ players would mark their check and stay with them. Vegas managed to exploit this system by skating the puck from low to high, drawing the Oiler defencemen up near the blue line. If they caught an Oiler forward losing his position, they sent pucks and players to the net, outnumbering the Oilers in the danger areas.

The Golden Knights, in contrast, played a zone defence. When executed correctly, the zone system provides layers of protection in the middle of the ice and forces the opposition to the perimeter. The Oilers had difficulty penetrating this system. Cassidy devised tactics that took advantage of breakdowns in Edmonton’s system, but Woodcroft was unable to do the same.

This season, the Oilers adopted a zone structure themselves. Vegas won’t be able to penetrate Edmonton’s defence in the same way as before. Whatever else they come up with, Knoblauch needs to recognize it and try to adapt. Better yet, he must find a way to exploit the Golden Knights in their zone.

Knoblauch Has Shown Promising Ability to Adapt

So far, during his tenure in Edmonton, Knoblauch has proven to be an adaptable coach. He’s reduced Nurse and Ceci’s responsibilities to maximize their success. He tried many different wingers for Draisaitl until he found the best combinations. He has empowered the Oilers to play a more responsible game in the neutral zone after the disastrous rush defence early on in the season. If Knoblauch can adjust his strategies to shift the momentum of a series, the Oilers will go far.

Woodcroft was a good coach, even a great one. But great coaches can still have their matchups and systems exploited. His grave mistake in Edmonton was being unwilling to change things up on the fly. Knoblauch needs to be one step ahead of the opposing coach. They have the personnel to win the Stanley Cup. Now, it’s about executing a proper plan.