Offseason checklist for the Vancouver Canucks

In 2021, on the heels of an injury-plagued platform year, the two sides eventually agreed on a three-year bridge deal, one that carried a $7.35M AAV while being heavily back-loaded.  The salary structure is notable, as the relatively new qualifying offer rule applies to it -- he’s owed the lower of 120% of the AAV or $10.25M (the 2023-24 salary).  120% of the cap charge is $8.82M and if you’re looking for a starting point for negotiations, there it is.

Realistically, the price tag is going to come in well above that, especially based on recent center signings, including that of Islanders pivot Mathew Barzal, who checks in at $9.15M despite only passing the 65-point mark once in his career.  It’s quite possible that a long-term agreement ultimately eclipses the $10M mark.

There’s a case to be made that Vancouver should wait until next year to see if Pettersson’s production is repeatable.  However, the salary cap is expected to have a sharper increase in 2024 and with comparables often being based on the percentage of the cap taken up, that could drive the asking price upward at that point along with his arbitration rights.  But, there’s value in taking care of your franchise players quickly. Having early certainty about what he’ll cost moving forward can only help Allvin as he looks to reshape Vancouver's cap picture.  Accordingly, expect the Canucks to take a run at extending Pettersson when he’s eligible to sign a new deal in July.

Look Into Miller Move

The seven-year, $56M contract extension that J.T. Miller signed back in September was supposed to take his name out of the rumor mill.  However, with the Canucks struggling considerably out of the gate, that wasn’t the case. There was considerable speculation that he could be moved prior to the trade deadline.  While that did not come to pass, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name come up once again, especially if they fail to find a suitable cap-clearing trade for one of their other pieces.

However, it’s important to note that there is a deadline for this to happen on.  Included in the extension is a full no-move clause which kicks in on July 1st.  Vancouver could have allowed that NMC to roll over in his set-to-expire deal, but opted not to.  While it’s not impossible to move a player with trade protection, the options are certainly more plentiful when the player doesn’t have any form of trade restrictions.

While Miller wasn’t able to equal his 99-point output from a year ago, the 30-year-old still had a productive campaign, notching 32 goals while picking up 82 points in 81 games.  Add that to a career-best 55 percent success rate at the faceoff dot and you have a player that is producing at a level worthy of the $8M AAV.  Expect to see his name surface in trade speculation leading up to the draft. There should be some interest in Miller, especially with a free agent market that’s lacking in quality middlemen.

Defensive Decisions

Vancouver has a couple of decisions to make with their pending restricted free agent blueliners.  Both Ethan Bear and Travis Dermott are arbitration-eligible this summer.  Both of them have shown flashes at times but neither of them is a guarantee to be tendered.

Let’s start with Bear, a player who has seemingly been on tenuous footing in recent years in Edmonton, Carolina, and now Vancouver.  The Canucks picked him up in an early-season trade and he helped to stabilize an injury-riddled back end.  However, the 25-year-old is best utilized in a limited role and a $2.2M qualifying offer is on the pricey side for someone in that role -- not to mention the granting of arbitration rights that the offer entails.  Given their cap situation, can the team afford that offer and the risk of a hearing?  Bear has expressed confidence that he will get something done, but it will be interesting to see if he winds up with a deal before the qualifying offer deadline in order to take the threat of a hearing off the table.

As for Dermott, he showed some upside in the past with Toronto but that hasn’t carried over to his time with Vancouver.  Lingering concussion symptoms have resulted in multiple IR stints and he played in just 11 games this season.  Dermott was the first player Allvin acquired after being named GM, so it’s clear there's a belief he can help this team.  But with a $1.75M qualifier and arbitration rights, that seems too pricey for them.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal worth less than that amount, allowing them to give the 26-year-old one more chance.

Vancouver also has a decision to make on pending UFA blueliner Kyle Burroughs.  The 27-year-old played in a career-best 48 games this season, picking up five points and 165 hits on the third pairing.  He fits in a depth role but it’s possible that his fate is tied to Bear's or Dermott’s, as they might not be able to keep all of them around.  As a result, Burroughs might have to wait a while to see if he’ll be staying with his hometown team.