For a pair of unique SOG plays tonight in the NHL, look no further. I feel reasonably confident that not many are discussing my first target today, which will either make me look quite smart or very dumb. If given a choice, I choose smart.
Martin Necas is under this line in five straight games and has only hit at a 27% clip this year, plus the Philadelphia Flyers let up only 28.3 shots/game on the road this year. So what in the world am I doing?
Here's what I'm seeing that has compelled me to take a shot on this guy. First, Philly's shots allowed numbers are way up. In their past two games, both on the road, they've let up 37 and 38 SOG. Considering Carolina is averaging 37.3 shots/game at home, I'm intrigued in some Canes.
Going under the hood in Philadelphia's past two games, I'm seeing a clear weakness: slowing down team's second lines. Anaheim's second line racked up 10 SOG, and Los Angeles' second line finished with nine.
Necas is on the second line for Carolina. His volume at home is also superb. On the road this season, Necas averages 4.9 shot attempts/game. In four at home, he's averaging 7.3/game, 29 in total.
He's also over this 2.5 line in five of his last six against the Flyers. This play is a a bit unorthodox, but I'm liking Necas here to get back on the right side of his SOG prop.
We have to go back to our guy Valeri Nichushkin here, especially at home against an Anaheim team allowing 32.8 shots per game on the road and skating on a back-to-back.
Nichushkin's offensive involvement is climbing now that he's on the top line with Artturi Lehkonen out. Nichushkin has 17 attempts in his past three games and 11 SOG. In his last three against the Ducks, he's finished with three, five and four shots, scoring twice.
I prefer moving him up to this 4+ number, because he's hit this number in 10 of the past 12 games with Lehkonen out of the lineup.
Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.
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