NHL Monday bets: Totals, sides and props to begin the week

Last week in hockey showed us that a turn has come in the market. Shots on goal props no longer feel like the most reliable way to attack a day in hockey. Game totals and team totals delivered us some nice wins, and that's where our focus will begin tonight.

Props are still part of the equation, but they feel secondary to the night's action moving forward. We've got five bets for tonight's six-game slate on the ice.

Tampa Bay Lightning-Buffalo Sabres over 6.5 goals (-118 FD)

Of the six games tonight, this one quickly stood out to me as a terrific over candidate. The foundational data behind that idea resides on the power play.

Both the Lightning and Sabres pair a strong power play scoring rate with struggling PK units, suggesting to me that we should expect some power play goals this evening.

Buffalo has been a solid over team this year, and the numbers tell the story, they're scoring 3.7 per game at home and allowing 3.4. Tampa Bay should be able to match the Sabres scoring, and I could easily see a 3-3 game that heads to overtime.

These two met just over three weeks ago, totaling 8 goals.

New Jersey Devils moneyline (-110 DK)

To be frank, my preferred angle in this game was to take the Rangers team total under. However, the 2.5 number scares me for a team like New York, and under 3.5 would have to be parlayed (maybe with Vegas' over, which I'll get to in a bit).

The reason I want to fade New York tonight is the Devils strong PK limiting the Rangers on any PP chances, and just your typical home/road split data.

The Rangers are averaging just 2.6 goals per game at home and the Devils are allowing only 1.9 goals per game on the road. New York has gone under their team total in eight of their last 10 at home.

I'll be taking this belief down an alternative path by betting the Devils to win. New Jersey is averaging 4.1 goals per game on the road and is 9-1 as the visitor this season. The Rangers are just 4-7 at MSG this year.

Edmonton Oilers over 3.5 goals (+115 DK)

On paper, the over in Florida-Edmonton makes a lot of sense. Both teams score a lot and allow a decent chunk of goals against them. Both teams also have below-average penalty killing rates and allow a lot of power play chances for the opposition.

However, my pause on pursuing the total stems from recent games between these two. For starters, this over/under is set up at seven goals, deservedly so. In their past eight meetings, eight or more goals have been scored only once, with two other games settling exactly on seven (which would result in a push).

Instead, I'll opt for the Oilers to do most of the heavy lifting at home, and we get them at plus-money. Edmonton has scored four goals in three of the last four against Florida, including on November 12.

The Oilers also have the stronger edge on the power play, their PP scoring rate is second in the NHL while Florida's PK ranks 11th-worst.

.5u: Jack Eichel goal (+150 CZR)

I had my eyes on the Vegas team total against Columbus, but the price is tough, currently -165 to go over 3.5. The reasoning behind backing some Golden Knights' goals is relatively straightforward: they're scoring 4.4 goals per game on the road this season while the Blue Jackets are allowing 4.1 per game at home.

To me this is an instance to go back to the prop well and opt for the highest-volume shooter to net one. Eichel has a goal in three straight games against Columbus and is leading this Vegas team in shots.

Vladimir Tarasenko & Brandon Montour over 2.5 SOG (+203 FD)

We're limiting shot props moving forward, but as I scan the board I am liking this combination of guys here. Tarasenko is facing a Dallas team allowing 34.9 shots per game on the road and 4.05 power play opportunities per game, making them an ideal target this evening.

Tarasenko is currently second on the team in PP shots and has enjoyed success against the Stars before. In three games against them last season, the Blues shooter had 4+ SOG each game. He's over 2.5 shots in four of his last six games.

We'll pair him with Brandon Montour of Florida against Edmonton. The Oilers are one of the best teams to target for defensemen shots and power play shooters, and Montour checks both those boxes.

He's remained on the Panthers' top PP line even with Aaron Ekblad returning, and that involvement has helped solidify his shot production.

Montour is over 2.5 in four straight and has been awesome on the road, tallying 5+ shots in five of his last six away games. Montour had three shots against Edmonton 16 days ago.

Let's start this new week right in the NHL, enjoy the slate!