NHL best bets: Looking to goals in Buffalo

It's our final night before the NHL heads on break, so let's make it count. All eyes turn to Buffalo for what looks to be a far more inviting matchup from a betting perspective.

Carolina-Buffalo over 6.5 goals (-110 DK)

Of the two games, it's this one that seems more likely to find some scoring. On paper, Carolina is sure to find the back of the net. They're scoring 3.5 goals per game on the road in their last 10 while Buffalo allows 3.3 on home ice in the same stretch.

Couple those averages with the influx of shots that the Canes are sure to produce and one has to feel good about their chances of finding 3+ goals here.

Now typically you may think to not target Carolina for goals, but I'm liking Buffalo to push the pace here as they look to head to the break with a quality home win. 

The Hurricanes have had a pair of 5-4 overtime wins since Friday, which shows me a few things. Clearly their offense remains productive, but it's being forced to turn it on lately due to some defensive lapses. Given they're on a back-to-back and winners of six straight, perhaps we see them take their foot off the gas just a tad here on the defensive end before a 10-day break.

For their part, Buffalo is averaging 3.6 goals and 35.2 shots per game on home ice in their past 10. This team is well-equipped to generate offense, and if the Hurricanes come out even a little sluggish or lackadaisical, I expect the Sabres to capitalize.

The Sabres' offense at home has helped them to a 14-10-1 record against the over when skating in Buffalo. It should be Antti Raanta in net for Carolina tonight, and while he did shut down in Dallas in relief on January 25, he's allowed 3+ goals in three straight starts.

Six of the past eight meetings between these two teams has yielded seven or more goals, with the two games that went under both landing right at six. They met in early November, a 5-3 Hurricanes win.

Carolina is 7-3 to the over in their last 10 on the road.

If you're looking for particular goal-scorers to get involved in the fun, might I recommend Sebastian Aho and Tage Thompson?

Aho is on a tear right now, scoring eight goals in his past five games. He's logged five goals in his past two against Buffalo. As for Thompson, I can't help but feel he needs to get right and knows it. This is also the Sabres first home game since the Bills lost in the playoffs. While that surely has no impact on this game, I do think players realize the hope of the city now lies on their shoulders, and hey, this approach worked for Jason Robertson in Dallas after the Cowboys' loss, so perhaps there's some merit to it after all.

Let's head to the All-Star break with a winner.