NHL best bets: Four value plays for Saturday's massive slate

Last night served us well with a pair of plus-money SOG props hitting, and now we look to carry that momentum into the weekend. Saturday's NHL slate has 13 games, and we've picked out four of my favorite plays for the day.

Ottawa over 3.5 goals, including OT (+145 DK)

I'm blown away by this price. Ottawa is averaging 5.2 goals per game at home over their last 10 as they look to make a postseason push, and yet here we are, with a +145 price for them to log a measly four.

In a vacuum I understand. Toronto is typically tight and have a quality defense and goaltending, but on paper this is quite an inviting matchup for the Senators.

The Maple Leafs have allowed 3.4 goals per game in their last 10 on the road, and they also own a below-average penalty kill of late, coupled with rising penalties. This plays beautifully into why Ottawa has been doing so well lately, their power play scoring rate comes in at seventh in the NHL over the past 20 games.

Ottawa has also had recent success against Toronto. They have 4+ goals in three of their last four meetings, including 10 total in the past two. It's not yet confirmed, but it appears Ilya Samsonov will be in net. He's allowed 14 goals in his past three on the road and gave up six to the Senators in January, and 4+ to them in three of his last four starts.

I'm willing to take a stab at this price given how Ottawa has been playing.

Two Kings power-play points (.25u on each)

• Viktor Arvidsson (+420 FD)
• Phillip Danault (+450 FD)

I think these are simply mispriced, and while I don't bet power-play point (PPP) props much, I'm biting at a low-cost given what I conceive to be a price we shouldn't have.

First, I like Los Angeles to score on the power play, as you may have deduced. The reason being is relatively simple. The Kings own a PP scoring rate of 33.3% over the past 20 days, good for third-best in the NHL. The Kraken's penalty kill rate is just 75% over the same stretch of time, a bottom-12 mark in the league. Los Angeles has two power-play goals when they last saw Seattle, and have scored on the power play in four of the past six meetings.

Ok, we have that established.

Over the last nine games, it's Arvidsson and Danault leading the Kings in PPP. Arvidsson has five, Danault with four. Despite this, we're getting prices in the +400s. My guess is that these two are priced as such because they're on the second power play line.

Los Angeles seems to be one of the few teams who spreads the net a bit more between their two PP units. When you look back on the past 10 games, it's a near even split for power-play time on ice when looking at guys like Arvidsson and Danault compared to some members of PP1.

I'm willing to grab a slice here at this price. To reiterate, I am betting just .25u on each. If you'd rather go the safer route, Barstool does list Los Angeles to score on the power play at the price of -136.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over 2.5 SOG (-110 MGM)

We're obviously going to need a piece (or seven) of the Edmonton offense as they host the Anaheim Ducks tonight. It's a clean sweep of metrics and past history that suggests the Oilers should easily have their way this evening.

With others' SOG props either juiced or moved up a number, I'll gladly go back to my old friend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

RNH at home has been a force. He's gone over this 2.5 number in five of his last seven, averaging 6.14 attempts/game. Each game he's gone over at home, he's gone for 4+ SOGs. The past three times Anaheim has come to town, Nugent-Hopkins has finished with shot totals of four, five and three. He had six shots last time. he saw the Ducks in January, so at this price, I will gladly hop on in.