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Flames’ Zary Has Realistic Chance At Calder Trophy Win

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Derek Olsen | Last updated 1/15/24

We are now over halfway through the 2023-24 NHL season, and the Calgary Flames are starting to pick up some steam. As the All-Star Break approaches, the team as a whole has seemingly bought into rookie head coach Ryan Huska’s system and has started to string together some more wins. The Flames have gone 5-2 since the new year began, most recently defeating the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights by a score of 3-1. While there are still lots of games left, many fans were worried that this season would be a write-off, but the team’s recent stretches have helped rid them of that mantra.

Many close followers of the organization are quick to point out that the team seemed to have bucked their losing trend in November when a string of call-ups from the American Hockey League’s (AHL) Calgary Wranglers took place. The Flames brought in young forwards Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, defenceman Nick DeSimone, and goalie Dustin Wolf at different points in the month. While Wolf, DeSimone, and Pospisil have all performed admirably, it is Zary who has taken his first NHL opportunity and run with it. After scoring his first career goal in his first career game against the Dallas Stars, he has found a home alongside centre Nazem Kadri and has played like he has been in the NHL for years. His solid production has placed him firmly in the conversation for the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie. Let’s have a look at his stats so far, his competition, and what needs to happen for him to win.

Zary’s Positive On-ice Impact

Why should Zary be considered for such a prestigious award? Well, so far in his first 33 games in the best league on earth, the 22-year-old has scored an impressive nine goals and 13 assists for 22 points. Only four Flames have scored more goals, and his plus-13 rating is tied for second on the squad. The native of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan has also put forth a 52.9% Corsi For rating, which means his lines dominate puck possession more often than not whenever he is on the ice. He has a scorching hot shooting percentage of 23.1 (nine goals on 39 shots), which likely isn’t sustainable but proves that he can find his way into high-danger opportunities and finish them.

Perhaps the most remarkable data related to Zary is one that isn’t tracked on many statistics sites. The Flames were 2-6-1 before calling him up, and have gone 18-12-3 since. While that figure isn’t groundbreaking and Zary isn’t singlehandedly carrying the team to victories, it is his resounding play and noticeable presence in the lineup that creates balance and allows for a more spread-out offence. What is rare for a rookie is to make the veterans on their line play better alongside them, and Zary has demonstrated this as well. Kadri, for example, had two points before Zary joined him and has scored 32 in the 32 games since. Coincidence? We think not.

The Competition Is Fierce

The 2023-24 rookie crop is shaping up to become one of the better ones in recent memory. Zary’s 22 points currently rank fifth among all NHL rookies, though he has played fewer games and averages less ice time than all four freshmen ahead of him. Those four young men are New Jersey Devils defenceman Luke Hughes, Minnesota Wild forward Marco Rossi, Columbus Blue Jackets winger Adam Fantili, and the odds-on favourite to win the Calder, Chicago Blackhawks star Connor Bedard. While Bedard’s whopping 33 points in 39 games may be tough to catch, second-place Fantili is only three points away with 25. Philadelphia Flyers rookie goalie Samuel Ersson is another big name to be worried about in this race. Somewhat fortunately for all, Bedard was recently injured and could be out for another month or two. This provides Zary a big opportunity to further cement his case.

What’s interesting is that based off of his current trajectory, Zary would have 29 points if he had played the 43 games that Fantili has. Over a full 82 games, the young Flame would have 22 goals and 55 points. His outstanding 0.67 points per game is second in the league behind only Bedard. His previously mentioned plus-13 rating is also tied for the league lead with the Ottawa Senators’ Ridly Greig. Something else that should be looked at is the team situation; Bedard, Fantilli, and Rossi are all ahead of Zary partially because they are on basement-dwelling teams and thus get more of a leash from their coaching staff. The Flames are a veteran-laden team where Zary has to earn his playing time. Hughes’ Devils are more comparable, but due to the roster quality, he is already the team’s best or second-best defenceman as a rookie and relies too heavily on the power play to score points.

In conclusion, Zary needs to take full advantage of Bedard’s current injury to give himself the best chance at the Calder Trophy. His production has to stay consistent and even be taken up a notch in the upcoming stretch, if possible. If he can break through more on the power play (just four of his 22 points have been scored there), it may help a tad. Should the team trade top-line centre Elias Lindholm, it would definitely provide him with more ice time and better opportunities. However, as stated, none of the top three rookie point producers will be in the playoff hunt. While the official award rules dictate that the trophy is based on regular season production, if Zary helps his team into the playoffs as a first-year player it should sway some voters.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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