Bruins, Trent Frederic reach pre-arbitration settlement

The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9M deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4M AAV.

In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15M,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.

At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.

As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.

Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a 6-foot-3, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.

With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.

This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05M cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.

As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1M in cap space left over and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman’s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.