Arbitration breakdown: Bruins' Trent Frederic

We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is Sunday, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4M AAV
Player: one year, $2.9M AAV
Midpoint: $2.15M AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25M AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15M deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3M. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15M. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5M on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05M salary from the last two seasons.