Analyzing the potential fits for an Erik Karlsson trade

Erik Karlsson doesn’t want to play for the rebuilding Sharks, something first-year San Jose GM Mike Grier has known for months. Yet here we are, late in July, and Karlsson is still a member of the team.

It’s the second time in Karlsson’s career he’s been waiting for a trade during the offseason.

The Ottawa Senators showed up for 2018-19 training camp knowing Karlsson was going to be dealt. GM Pierre Dorian had publicly acknowledged a trade was imminent. It was just a matter of time. But having the saga linger through the start of camp was less than ideal.

Karlsson was the captain of the Senators. Instead of focusing on the upcoming season, all eyes were on him. And Karlsson, while technically still a member of the Senators, was nowhere to be found. To say it cast a pall on camp would be an understatement.

Karlsson was eventually traded to the Sharks in a deal that involved multiple players and draft picks. But there's a lesson here for NHL general managers: don’t let these things fester. By allowing the process to linger into training camp, it affected the entire vibe of the locker room. And it ended up being a lost season in Ottawa.

That’s what Grier needs to avoid. But despite knowing Karlsson’s desire to leave, Grier has dug in on what he believes to be a worthy return for the reigning Norris Trophy winner. And that’s his right. Grier is doing what he thinks is best for the future of the Sharks. The rookie GM is already in a tight spot having to deal Karlsson’s $11.5M AAV contract with four years remaining.

Recently, Karlsson opened up to Swedish journalist Adam Johansson about the situation. And he even revealed several of the teams he’s been in contact with. Karlsson, who has a full no-movement clause in his contract, admitted to speaking with Pittsburgh, Carolina, Toronto and Seattle.

With Karlsson holding all the cards — he can veto any trade — let’s focus on the best destination for the uber-talented defenseman, starting with the four teams we know Karlsson has talked to. Remember, Karlsson wants to win a Stanley Cup before hanging up the skates. With the right fit, it very well could happen.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Hurricanes have shown a knack for incorporating just about anyone into the team’s system and making it work. Which is a huge credit to the culture head coach Rod Brind’Amour has created. Hurricanes players would go through a wall for him. And Brind’Amour’s attention to detail comes through in how well the team defends. Since taking over behind the Carolina bench in 2018, only the Bruins and Islanders have allowed fewer goals per game than the Hurricanes.

The addition of Shayne Gostisbehere at the 2023 trade deadline was a window into Carolina’s desires. Clearly GM Don Waddell puts a value on puck-moving defensemen. And no matter how well-rounded new Hurricanes defenseman Dmitry Orlov may be, he doesn’t have crazy offensive firepower.

You know who does? Karlsson. He’d be a shot in the arm for Carolina. Especially on the power play, where the team has struggled to find consistency. Playing alongside Jaccob Slavin on the Hurricanes top defensive pairing would be a luxury for Karlsson.

But then there’s the elephant in the room: Brent Burns. And specifically, what would happen if Burns and Karlsson were to become teammates again? The duo spent four seasons together with the Sharks and missed the playoffs three consecutive years.

It never seemed to click for San Jose with Burns and Karlsson in the lineup. Both experienced declines in production as the Sharks spiraled towards the bottom of the standings. Granted, San Jose failed to insulate the pair very well. But the results are hard to ignore. Carolina needs to be very aware of the past in San Jose.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

There’s an obvious connection with Jason Spezza recently signing on as the Penguins’ assistant GM. He and Karlsson played together in Ottawa and have a friendly relationship. But would it make sense on the ice?

Looking at Pittsburgh’s roster construction, it’s pretty obvious that any trade for Karlsson would be done to essentially replace aging defenseman Jeff Petry, who is no longer worth $6.25M a year. And if that’s how a deal would be viewed, it’s clearly a net positive. Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman in hockey. And the Penguins already have Kris Letang to drive play. Adding Karlsson would give the Penguins a dynamic one-two punch on the back end.

Pittsburgh’s power play was okay last year. Not great. Adding Karlsson should help in that regard. His skating ability would speed up the Penguins through the neutral zone — something the team already helped address in free agency by signing former Devils defenseman Ryan Graves to a multi-year deal.

The Penguins would have to ship out dollars to make any trade for Karlsson work. But for a team that underperformed last season and missed the playoffs by just a single point, the Norris Trophy winner would be a huge addition. Pittsburgh, led by new President of Hockey Operations Kyle Dubas, have already had a great offseason. Adding Karlsson would give the franchise a legit chance of hoisting the Stanley Cup for a sixth time.

SEATTLE KRAKEN

GM Ron Francis has built a deep, hard-working roster that overachieved last year. And kudos to head coach Dave Hakstol for giving a team short in high-end talent the blueprint to success. Seattle was arguably the best 5-on-5 team in the NHL during the 2022-23 season.

But at some point Francis will need to feed the beast and take a swing at a big name. Karlsson very much fits the bill. But how ready the Kraken are to contend for a Stanley Cup?

How would Karlsson view the franchise? One good season in which Seattle seemed to catch lightning in a bottle isn’t a great predictor of future success, no matter how strong of a roster Francis has assembled.

The Kraken are also pretty set on the blueline. The team already added former Penguin — and Stanley Cup champion — Brian Dumoulin this summer through free agency. The team’s top six are plenty capable, and Vince Dunn is just now coming into his own as a No. 1 defender. If Francis were to make a move for Karlsson, he’d probably have to ship a defenseman out.

The overarching point is that Karlsson can help most NHL teams. But it has to be the right fit, and he has to be excited about the opportunity. Would Seattle be a fun place to play? Yes, absolutely. And the team will win games again next year. Much more than San Jose. But the fit just doesn’t seem right for Karlsson at this stage of his career. He has four seasons remaining on his contract. With Seattle, his chances at a Stanley Cup seem a year or two away. Karlsson doesn’t need a place where he has to be patient.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Karlsson’s name has been connected to the Leafs for months. But was former Toronto GM Kyle Dubas driving the boat? And has that ship sailed now that Brad Treliving has taken over as GM of the Maple Leafs?

For a team like Toronto that has struggled to defend, Karlsson doesn't make a lot of sense. The team already added John Klingberg to up the team’s offensive production from the backend. How much more do the Leafs need, especially with Morgan Rielly hanging around?

Maybe if Treliving was willing to part with T.J. Brodie or Rielly it could work. But adding Karlsson isn't going to help the Leafs keep the puck out of their net. Toronto has plenty of firepower. Scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in the lineup.

It's understandable that the Maple Leafs would want their defensive core to be more dynamic, and Karlsson would help. But Klingberg really blocks that job, and he’s making over $4M next season. How would Treliving make the dollars work on Karlsson?  Could the cap hit be better served rounding out the franchise in all areas? The answer is most likely "yes."

Toronto would be a sexy destination for Karlsson considering the team’s star power. The Leafs should be contending for the Stanley Cup well into the future. But Karlsson might actually hurt the team’s chances. The bottom line is the Leafs haven’t been good enough defensively, and Karlsson will not help in that area.