2023-24 NHL team preview: Florida Panthers

LAST SEASON

The Florida Panthers came into the 2022-23 season with sky-high expectations. Not only did they have their best season in franchise history to win the Presidents’ Trophy in 2021-22, but they also made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Matthew Tkachuk for a package that included Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. There were many questions about whether they sacrificed too much depth at the expense of adding Tkachuk, but some considered it the price to pay for changing up their play style and bringing in an elite talent through all his prime years.

Those concerns proved to be well-founded, as the Panthers struggled for a good chunk of the regular season. At best, they were a bubble playoff team, and at worst, their season was on the verge of being over, and they constantly shifted between those two states. At the 63-game mark, they were only 30-27-6. But, they had a 12-5-2 stretch to end the season thanks to some surprising help in net from Alex Lyon, and it was just enough to sneak into the final Wildcard spot. Oh, and that Tkachuk trade proved to pay off in spades, as his MVP-caliber season played a big role in their survival all season.

Going into the playoffs, everybody seemed to forget just how good this Panthers team could be, and they definitely seemed to thrive in the underdog role. Many looked at their first-round series against the record-setting Boston Bruins as an automatic loss, especially when the Bruins took a 3-1 series lead, but the Panthers managed to escape the jaws of defeat and upset Boston. Florida was written off once more against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes, but thanks to a Sergei Bobrovsky resurgence, the Panthers made easy work of both teams, losing just one game between the two opponents in the second and third round. Unfortunately, the Cinderella run had to come to an end, as they met a deep Vegas Golden Knights team in the Stanley Cup Final and didn’t stand a chance, losing in five games with Vegas in control almost the entire time.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions:

Mike Reilly, D
Dmitry Kulikov, D
Niko Mikkola, D
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D
Anthony Stolarz, G
Kevin Stenlund, C
Evan Rodrigues, C
Rasmus Asplund, LW
Steven Lorentz, C

Departures:

Anthony Duclair, RW (SJ)
Radko Gudas, D (Ana)
Alex Lyon, G (Det)
Marc Staal, D (Phi)
Patric Hornqvist, RW (Retired)

OFFENSE

While the Panthers struggled throughout the season, it wasn’t due to their offense. They ranked sixth in the league in goals per game with 3.51, third in 5v5 goals per 60 minutes with 3.01 and second in 5v5 expected goals per 60 with 3.22. The latter stat was about on par with their Presidents’ Trophy-winning season, even if there was a regression from their record-setting offense in terms of actual goals, but they were generating offense in more unique ways, and that paid off in their playoff run. Tkachuk was worth every penny and trade asset on route to being a Hart Trophy finalist, while Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Brandon Montour all surpassed the 70-point mark, and Sam Reinhart just missed out with 67 points. They received a bit more depth scoring from Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Bennett, and Anton Lundell, along with Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad on the back end, and while Anthony Duclair didn’t get a ton of action in the regular season, he proved to be productive in the playoffs.

The good news for the Panthers is that outside of Duclair, all those players will be back for them this season, and on top of that, Evan Rodrigues may prove to be a savvy addition to their forward group and bolster it even more. The bad news is that both Ekblad and Montour will miss time to start next season, so they may struggle with moving the puck from the back end. At the very least, they made a bunch of buy-low signings with Mike Reilly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dmitry Kulikov, and Niko Mikkola, so at least a couple of them should help manage the burden while Ekblad and Montour recover.

DEFENSE

The Panthers’ defense was alright but teetered towards bad in 2022-23. They ranked 21st in goals against per game with 3.32, 16th in 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes with 2.5 and 21st in 5v5 goals against per 60 with 2.76. The latter stat shows that the lackluster showing wasn’t just due to goaltending, although their performance in net certainly didn’t help their cause. That said, they were at the same level as 2021-22 when they won the Presidents’ Trophy, so it’s not out of the ordinary for them to be mediocre in this regard and still do well. Barkov gets all the headlines for being the best defensive player on the team, but Florida also saw some excellent defensive results from Lundell, Luostarinen, and most particularly Sam Reinhart, who led all forwards in defensive goals above replacement last year. On the back end, there really wasn’t one particular defenseman who popped out but more of an overall team effort, although Ekblad was obviously the workhorse of the group.

Those forwards of note will all return this season, and on top of that, Rodrigues and Rasmus Asplund are really smart adds to help improve the defense in the forward group, allowing the Panthers to spread those forwards among their four lines and give each one some defensive support. On the back end, they’re losing their top dog in Ekblad for the start of the season, but they’re looking to continue their overall team effort with the additions of Ekman-Larsson, Reilly, Kulikov, and Mikkola. None of them is a defensive stalwart at this point in his career, but perhaps a new environment and system could allow all of them to see enough improvement to keep the Panthers defensive in the murky middle until Ekblad and Montour return.

GOALTENDING

The Panthers goaltending was a bit all over the place in 2022-23. Bobrovsky saw the most action with 50 games but was inconsistent throughout the season with a .901 save percentage and only 2.92 5v5 goals saved above expected. Spencer Knight wasn’t much better in the backup role, also with a .901 save percentage but -4.48 5v5 goals saved above expected, and only got into 21 games before he left the team and entered the NHL and NHLPA’s player assistance program. It wasn’t until Lyon stepped into the crease in the final weeks of the season that Florida finally got good enough goaltending to go on a hot streak and make the playoffs, with his .912 SV% and 11.02 5v5 goals saved above expected both leading the team. He struggled at the start of the playoffs, and that’s when Bobrovsky took over and played his best hockey in years, with a .915 SV% and 19.44 5v5 goals saved above expected in 19 playoff games.

While Lyon moved on to Detroit, he was replaced by Anthony Stolarz, who’s been a solid backup throughout his career but struggled mightily last season on a weak Anaheim Ducks team. He’ll get a better team in front of him this season, which should help improve his play back to normal. He’ll be the third goalie for the Panthers, but that still might mean he starts the year as the backup, as Knight may not be ready to start in the NHL just yet after leaving the player assistance program over the summer. That means that Bobrovsky will be leaned on more until Knight returns, and with ‘Bob’ being 35 years old by the start of the season, it might not be a role he can handle over the long haul. But we did see what he’s still capable of in the playoffs, so maybe he carries that momentum and has a solid season.

COACHING

This will be Paul Maurice’s second season behind the bench in Florida, and while many were questioning the decision to replace Andrew Brunette with Maurice last offseason, he showed he’s still got some tricks up his sleeve by keeping this team alive in the regular season and coaching them to the Cup Final. Of course, having the roster that he did certainly helped, but at the very least, he didn’t hold the team back. His impact could prove to be important in the early parts of the season when the Panthers are without their top two defensemen, and how they do could prove whether Maurice helps the team or hinders them.

ROOKIES

In order to go all-in at the 2022 trade deadline, the Panthers gave up a lot of prospects and draft picks, leaving them with very slim pickings in terms of up-and-coming talent. Mackie Samoskevich is probably the only prospect in their pool who has a chance of being a gamebreaker, but he still needs a bit more pro hockey experience in the AHL before he becomes a consistent NHL player.

Other than Samoskevich, there’s not a lot to get overly optimistic about in Florida. There’s a possibility that the injuries to Ekblad and Montour may open the door for one or two rookie defensemen to sneak onto the team with a solid training camp, but with all the additions they made on the back end, it’s hard to see that happening unless they have a blue-chipper on the back end, which Michael Benning, Evan Nause, Kasper Puutio, and Ludvig Jansson just aren’t at this point.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Will the Panthers survive the start of the season without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour? The biggest reason this team’s playoff status is still in doubt this season despite their Cup Final run last season is due to the injuries they’ll deal with on the back end. Ekblad and Montour had offseason surgery and are projected to miss some time to start the season, and according to recent reports, they seem to be on schedule to return, but it’s still going to be a long month or two to start the season without them. Florida brought in several defensemen on buy-low contracts in free agency to try and weather the storm, and some could prove to pay off, but will a top four of Forsling, Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, and Reilly hold down the fort until the Panthers’ top-two defenders return?

2. Which Sergei Bobrovsky will we see this season? It’s hard to remember these days, but there was once a time when Bobrovsky was looked at as one of the best goalies in the NHL. There’s a reason he has the expensive contract that’s hampering the Panthers' cap sheet, even if he hasn’t lived up to it for the most part in Florida. The 2023 playoffs reminded us just how good Bob could be, and it played a big role in their playoff run once he retook the mantle from Lyon. But four years into Bobrovsky’s Panthers career, he has three seasons of subpar goaltending and one year of league-average goaltending. The Panthers are good enough that they’ll just need the latter to be competitive, but can he provide that, especially when Knight’s NHL return isn’t guaranteed to be at the start of the season?

3. Who will be this season’s surprise breakout candidate? The Panthers have made a name for themselves by extracting that extra bit of talent and finding a new gear with their players, especially as they’ve become more competitive. It was Montour in 2022-23, Verhaeghe and Mason Marchment in 2021-22, Bennett in 2020-21, and even Jonathan Marchessault broke out into the NHL with them back in 2016-17. It’s been the secret to their recent success, allowing them to maintain a deep group despite losing players in the offseason. Whether it ends up being a prospect like Lundell or a new addition like Rodrigues or Reilly, they have plenty of candidates to be the next impact player on this team.

PREDICTION

It’s hard to get a strong read on the Atlantic Division this season. The only guarantees seem to be Montreal missing the playoffs and Toronto and Tampa making it, although even Tampa has a couple of question marks that could put them at risk with their depth getting thinner every year. Boston and Florida have the talent to return to the playoffs as well, but Boston’s center depth and Florida’s early injuries on the blueline could cause some problems, which opens the door for any of Buffalo, Ottawa, and Detroit to sneak in, and that’s assuming there aren’t going to be five playoff teams in the Metropolitan Division. I think the Panthers ultimately make it by enduring early-season injuries the same way Boston did last year. Florida made enough additions on the back end that they can likely survive that early storm, but the Atlantic is enough of a coin flip that it’s far from a certainty.