Yardbarker's 100 bold NFL predictions for 2019

Over the final eight weeks of the 2018 season, Foster averaged 14.2 yards per target, ranking second in the league, and his 128 passer rating when targeted was fifth in the league, per Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview. He has a knack for burning teams with home run plays and the size to win contested plays downfield. If Josh Allen takes steps as a passer this season, Foster, undrafted out of Alabama, should be one of the big reasons why and one of the biggest beneficiaries. -- Chris Mueller

According to the 2019 Football Outsiders Almanac, 22 percent of Allen’s passes were either overthrown or underthrown. He threw 12 picks in 12 games and, had he played a full season, was on pace to tie Ben Roethlisberger for most in the league. Buffalo overhauled its offense, and like last year Allen will make plenty of big plays. But there is nothing in his history, collegiate or professional, to suggest that he will suddenly become more accurate. His penchant for turnovers will hold back the new-look Bills.
-- Chris Mueller

Football Outsiders had Rosen’s -53.0 percent DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) in 2018 as the second-worst by a rookie first-round quarterback since at least 1986. However, his situation in Arizona was dysfunctional, and while the Dolphins' roster is worse than the Cardinals', they appear to have stabilized organizationally. That should make it easier for Rosen to show what he can do in 2019. Plus, everyone knows that FitzMagic has a short shelf life. -- Chris Mueller

This might seem like a negative prediction on the surface, but it isn’t. Howard won’t record seven picks like he did last year, in only 12 games to boot, because offenses simply won’t throw at him. Miami has little talent anywhere else on the field, and no sane offensive coordinator is going to risk going at Howard when there are so many other vulnerable areas to attack. Howard will have his best season yet but won’t have the numbers to back it up — the mark of a true shutdown corner. -- Chris Mueller

One player in NFL history has started a full 16-game season at age 42 or older: Minnesota’s Jim Marshall in 1979. Brady will become the second man to add his name to that list and add yet another accomplishment to his resume. But for his four-game suspension for his role in Deflategate, Brady hasn’t missed a regular-season game since tearing his ACL in 2008. With quarterbacks more protected than ever and Brady in seemingly great shape, there’s no reason to expect that to change now.  -- Chris Mueller

Winovich, a defensive end from Michigan, received the rarest of honors recently. Bill Belichick actually praised him in a radio interview in Boston, complimenting his speed, athleticism and motor and also his ability to adjust to different and unfamiliar responsibilities the Patriots were thrusting on him. Winovich was the 77^th-overall pick in this year’s draft, and an early endorsement from one of the sport’s all-time great defensive minds may mean he’s on the fast track to NFL success.  -- Chris Mueller

One of the big mysteries of this season is whether a year away from football will hurt Bell. His last two “full” seasons have yielded 1,946 and 1,884 yards from scrimmage, respectively, but will he be rusty? The last big-name player to hold out for an entire season was defensive tackle Sean Gilbert in 1997. He joined the Panthers in 1998 and posted six sacks after a year away, which ended up as the second-highest season total of his career. Bell will be a safety blanket for Sam Darnold, and that will give him plenty of touches and plenty of chances to pile up yardage and validate his contract.
-- Chris Mueller

The Jets haven't been to the playoffs since 2010. While Football Outsiders likes Sam Darnold's potential, particularly his ability to throw downfield, they are way down on Adam Gase, whose offensive philosophy emphasizes short throws. Gase wasn't a fan of the Bell signing, and his "quarterback guru" status stems from two great seasons as Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator in Denver. Manning probably didn't need the help. Despite that, the Jets will go 9-7 and sneak into the playoffs in a weakened AFC.
-- Chris Mueller

Jackson will miss at least two games due to an injury suffered on a designed run. John Harbaugh has insisted that Jackson will carry the ball in the neighborhood of 150-200 times. Jackson already has the season NFL record for quarterback carries, logging 147 last year despite starting less than half the season. Harbaugh is flirting with disaster by putting Jackson in harm’s way, and odds are he’s going to get burned, and his attempt at an offensive revolution will suffer as a consequence. -- Chris Mueller

Too many losses on the defensive side, not enough gains on the offensive side and the near-constant potential for injury for the franchise quarterback. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success for the Ravens, whose surprising run with Lamar Jackson at the helm in 2018 may have doomed them for 2019. The Chargers laid out the blueprint on how to stop Baltimore, and while not every team has a Derwin James, no one will be caught off guard by what the Ravens are doing this year. -- Chris Mueller

Dalton has been a good-not-great quarterback thus far in his career, and the Bengals are counting on Taylor, Sean McVay’s quarterbacks coach in Los Angeles last year, to help him take the next step. The problem for Cincinnati is that there doesn’t appear to be a next step to take. At this point in his career, Dalton has laid down enough of a body of work to assume that he is exactly what his stats say he is: a slightly above-average quarterback. Unless Taylor finds a way to fix Dalton’s career-long struggles dealing with pressure, nothing major will change in Cincy.
 -- Chris Mueller

Atkins is one of the best interior linemen in the NFL, but if you polled casual fans, his name would rarely come up. He has registered at least nine sacks in each of the last four seasons and is a consistently disruptive force in Cincinnati’s front seven. Atkins had 10 sacks last year despite constantly dealing with double-teams. He’ll continue the streak of nine or more this season, but the real question is whether or not football fans around the country will notice.
-- Chris Mueller

This might seem like folly, what with Kareem Hunt around to siphon carries from Chubb during the second half of the season. But the second-year back didn’t log more than three carries in a game until Week 7 last year and still ended up with 996 yards for the season. He’ll have a heavier workload and more offensive talent around him this year, which should make his job that much easier. Chubb also had the best elusive rating (measures a running back’s ability independent of the blocking in front of him) of any back with at least 100 carries last season, according to Pro Football Focus. -- Chris Mueller

Garrett will leap into the ranks of the league's superstars this year, building off a 13.5-sack 2018 that saw him finish sixth in the NFL in that department. Cleveland’s trade for Odell Beckham was its splashiest offseason move, but it also dealt Kevin Zeitler to the Giants for Olivier Vernon, who should be a nice edge rushing complement opposite Garrett. Vernon’s sack numbers aren’t great, but he is a knockdown (sacks + quarterback hits) machine, ranking 15 ^th in the league with 25, according to Football Outsiders, and he should be able to command attention in his own right. That should open things up for Garrett even more, and if it does, watch out. -- Chris Mueller

Technically Ben Roethlisberger has already had a losing campaign, going 7-8 as a starter in 2006. Tomlin’s worst record since taking the reins in 2007 has been 8-8 — twice. There's plenty of post-Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell optimism in Pittsburgh but also room for a letdown. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush will be good, but holes elsewhere on the defense, particularly at outside linebacker opposite T.J. Watt, and at corner opposite Joe Haden, will hurt Pittsburgh, and the offense will miss Brown’s production, if not the headaches he caused off the field
-- Chris Mueller

One of the major questions for the 2019 Steelers concerns how they’ll replace Antonio Brown’s production. 2018 was a “down” year for Brown, but he still led the league with 15 touchdown receptions. JuJu Smith-Schuster will command plenty of attention, and 2018 second-rounder James Washington, who arrived at camp in better shape and has had a strong preseason, will be the beneficiary, exploiting single coverage and leading a more balanced wide receiver corps with eight touchdown catches. -- Chris Mueller

Watson was sacked 62 times last year, yet somehow didn't miss a game. That staggering number led the league, and Watson took enough hits that Houston used two of its first three draft picks on offensive linemen in an effort to protect the franchise’s most important investment. It’s hard to imagine the pass protection being any worse this year, but then again, counting on two rookies plus Matt Kalil to make up 60 percent of a line tasked with keeping Watson upright might be asking too much. Watson probably won’t get sacked as much, but he will get hit a ton, and it will cost the Texans games as well as any chance at the division. -- Chris Mueller

Editor's note: Clowney was dealt to Seattle on Aug. 31. Spot-on prediction!

The Clowney saga, one that has seen him hold out and refuse to sign his franchise tag, will end up with him traded and the Texans picking up the pieces on defense. The situation is acrimonious because Clowney played most of his snaps at defensive end but was listed as a linebacker, which costs less on the tag. He can't sign a long-term deal, since that deadline has passed, but inquiring teams can always make a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge" future deal with a player in his situation. Who are his suitors? How about the Eagles, Patriots or Jets? All three could do it, and one of them will be tantalized by Clowney’s production and potential to reach even greater heights to swing a deal. -- Chris Mueller

Andrew Luck's retirement shocked the football world, and turned the Colts from a possibly dynastic team to one searching for answers. Luck was the engine that made the franchise go, but Indy assembled enough quality depth on both sides of the ball that they won't completely fall off a cliff this season. It won't be a playoff year in Indianapolis, but Jacoby Brissett will lean on Darius Leonard, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton and a talent-laden supporting cast to manage at least six or seven wins this year. -- Chris Mueller

Kelly is lucky to have a job and only a two-game suspension for a violation of the league's personal conduct policy after being charged with first-degree criminal trespassing. When his suspension ends, he'll become Brissett's backup, unless the Colts make a trade for another quarterback. No one denies Kelly's talent and arm strength, but dating to college, he has shown an inability to stay away from trouble off the field. The guess here is that his potential, coupled with a "lost season" vibe in Indy, will cause the Colts to give him at least one start to show what he can do. -- Chris Mueller

After suffering through the Blake Bortles era and somehow managing to make it within a possible missed call of a Super Bowl trip despite being severely hamstrung at quarterback, Jacksonville took action. Nick Foles got $88 million from the Jags, $50 million of it guaranteed, and the expectation is that he'll finally bring balance and consistency to a position where the team hasn't had it in years. Foles is out of the Philadelphia cocoon, but he is reunited with John DeFilippo, who was Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 2017 when the Eagles won the Super Bowl. The partnership will yield fruit again, and Foles will perform like a top-15 passer in 2019.
-- Chris Mueller

It's not like Jacksonville's defense suddenly disappeared. The Jags were fourth in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed last season and added Kentucky's Josh Allen to the mix, with many experts calling the pick a steal. In other words, they were still formidable and may have gotten better. Add to that a passing attack that will be markedly improved with Foles, a running game featuring Leonard Fournette that should have more room to operate and a division where every other team is flawed, and there's reason to think that the Jaguars will pull a worst-to-first turnaround. -- Chris Mueller

Mariota's second season was excellent, as he threw 26 touchdowns against only nine interceptions, but his other three years under center have been disappointing and hampered by occasional injuries. Pro Football Focus ranked him the 22nd-best quarterback in the league, a position that seems about right. This will be his fifth year with the club, and despite having some legitimate weapons around him, Mariota won't be able to put it all together and reward Tennessee's faith in him, and the team will go back to the drawing board as it searches for its next quarterback. -- Chris Mueller

The AFC South is a division full of flawed teams — teams that have to answer major questions — but it also looks like a deep division and one where 7-9 or 6-10 might still land a team in the cellar. The Titans had four wins by four points or less in 2018, and they won't have the same kind of luck this year, particularly with Jacksonville looking stronger. Mike Vrabel's second season will be a disappointment, as the Titans will go 6-10 and bring up the rear in the division.
-- Chris Mueller

This is no knock on the Broncos' future Hall of Fame pass rusher/right tackle destroyer, but his second-year apprentice looks set up for a dominant season. After a 12-sack rookie slate, Chubb is now playing the Khalil Mack role in Vic Fangio's defense; the larger of Denver's two outside linebacker standouts will also benefit from the attention Miller commands. Miller already formed top-tier duos with Elvis Dumervil and DeMarcus Ware; he and Chubb will push for 30 combined sacks and may be the NFL's best tandem by year's end. -- Sam Robinson

Joe Flacco looks like he will hold off Drew Lock for a while, and Fangio should elevate the Broncos defense, which may be even better than 2018's unit (fifth in DVOA). But the combination of a below-average quarterback (Flacco's identity since 2015) and a first-year offensive coordinator (former 49ers QBs coach Rich Scangarello) will undercut Denver's improvements elsewhere. The Broncos have seen this scenario play out for years, and unfortunately for some Super Bowl-era veterans still left, this year may be a souped-up version of recent unsuccessful squads. -- Sam Robinson

The Chiefs mistakenly held off on helping their secondary before last year's trade deadline, and it cost them at the worst possible time (13 Patriots third-down conversions in the AFC title game). Their aggressiveness in reshaping their leaky defense this year (via the Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu additions) shows they recognize the time is now, with Patrick Mahomes still on his rookie deal. Kansas City's Bashaud Breeland and Morris Claiborne signings will not be enough. The team will make a move for another boundary stopper (Patrick Peterson's suspension ends Oct. 14) before the Oct. 29 deadline. -- Sam Robinson

Armed with a generational quarterback talent in a premier situation, with Patrick Mahomes working under Andy Reid and with Travis Kelce and the somehow-not-suspended Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs improved their defense as well. Pairing underrated interior dynamo Chris Jones with Mathieu, Clark and, in this reality (see previous slide) another starter-level cornerback could elevate Kansas City's defense to the "average" tier. That should be enough for Mahomes and Co., as the franchise looks for its first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years. -- Sam Robinson

The fifth-year running back's holdout has nearly surpassed a month's time, and pessimism appears to exist about the prospect of an extension. Not wanting to take his chances in running back-leery free agency — likely after another injury, given his history (nine missed games) — Gordon accepts the Chargers' offer and rejoins the team just before the season. We do not know what the guarantees are in the Bolts' reported offer (worth approximately $10 million annually), but these are grim times for backs. They do not have much leverage. -- Sam Robinson

With one of the Chargers' best three players (Derwin James) out for as much as half the season and the team carrying a suspect offensive line, this looks closer to a wild-card roster than one capable of toppling the Chiefs. Pro Football Focus rated the 2019 Bolts’ blocking quintet as the league’s No. 29 group, and this was with Russell Okung included; the veteran is dealing with a “pretty serious medical issue” and has no known return timetable. It should not be considered a lock the Bolts make consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in 10 years. -- Sam Robinson

No team has finished last in sacks in consecutive seasons since the 2012-13 Jaguars, but the Raiders placed 31st or lower in sacks four times from 2012-18 and saved their peak futility effort for the penultimate Oakland season (13 sacks — the lowest NFL total since the '08 Chiefs). The Raiders (one 2018 sack from a defensive end still on the roster) did not address this notably in free agency, and first-round pick Clelin Ferrell will receive plenty of attention from offensive lines. Here's betting Jon Gruden fields a carefully worded Khalil Mack question by September. -- Sam Robinson

The Raiders boast a better-looking roster (it would be hard to look worse) than in 2018, but too many questions remain for them to form a contender this season. Derek Carr posted the No. 29 QBR figure last season, and before that is attributed to a lack of pass-catching weaponry, it should be noted the Raiders passer (even in his near-MVP season) has never finished inside the top 15 of that metric. Uncertainty at quarterback, tackle and at several spots defensively -- coupled with the NFL's toughest schedule -- will send the Raiders to Las Vegas on the heels of another forgettable season.
-- Sam Robinson

Prescott has voiced his opposition to a team-friendly deal and reportedly turned down a $30 million-per-year proposal , but unless he wants to play for $2M this season, the Cowboys quarterback will agree to a pre-Week 1 extension. The situation with Ezekiel Elliott is more complicated, and the Cowboys' effusive praise for their draft-gem quarterback (and their recent history of taking care of their own) will push re-up talks past the finish line. It may well lock the Cowboys into a situation they do not want, with a middling QB on a high-end deal, but this is the cost of doing business.
 -- Sam Robinson

The NFC remains the league's deeper conference, and the Cowboys will be one of many teams — along with the top three in the North and South divisions — vying for limited postseason real estate. The Cowboys return elite linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch (Pro Football Focus' Nos. 4 and 6, respectively, off-ball 'backers in 2018), have two quality defensive coaches in Rod Marinelli and Kris Richard, and their offensive line will be back at full strength with Travis Frederick returning. This should be enough for Prescott, and whatever version of Elliott the Cowboys get, to lead the charge into January. -- Sam Robinson

Stashing their developing rookie passer behind Eli Manning all season continues to be the Giants' plan, but that is contingent on them contending in 2019 (unlikely). Equipped with a better line and the NFL's most talented back, Manning has some decent parts to work with in his 16th season. (Of course, not trading Odell Beckham Jr. for an interior defender and a box safety would have helped more.) The Jones era will begin this season, but after the 2017 benching debacle that ended Manning's storied start streak, the Giants will make the rookie wait a while before the baton pass. -- Sam Robinson

Dave Gettleman took consistent heat for his reconfiguration of the Giants offensive depth chart. Lost in the Odell Beckham Jr.- and Daniel Jones-created frenzy: The Giants could be atrocious defensively. Twenty-sixth in DVOA with  Olivier Vernon last year, the Giants have no proven pass rushers or high-end prospects , are thin at cornerback and placed a premium on acquiring Jabrill Peppers. This stands to undercut a promising defensive line on what looks a bottom-five defense — one that will threaten to interfere with whatever Manning, Jones and Barkley do this season.
-- Sam Robinson

This might not be a good year to reach for Eagles pass-catchers in fantasy drafts, but for Carson Wentz and the reality Eagles, this is a super-deep talent array. The Eagles' aerial group includes wideouts Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson, along with tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert and still-around Darren Sproles. Adding the Round 2 back Miles Sanders and Round 3 wideout J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, the Birds will be a nightmare to defend. The 2018 Eagles had three 500-yard receivers; the '19 version will feature six (which would be a franchise first). -- Sam Robinson

Jets GM Joe Douglas is certainly not wrong to wonder if the 2019 Eagles are deeper than the 2017 Super Bowl champion version . High-end starters DeSean Jackson and Malik Jackson joined Howie Roseman's well-fortified depth chart, with some of the positions (both lines, along with the aerial corps) among the most talented of any team. Against a schedule that includes the AFC East and one road game against a 2018 playoff team, the Eagles are primed — Carson Wentz health permitting — for an NFC pole-position push. -- Sam Robinson

Multiple AFC contenders could use a starting-caliber left tackle, but with the Texans having just drafted one in the first round, the Browns stand out. Washington already signed a replacement (Donald Penn) and has not seen its seven-time Pro Bowler budge during a holdout that is believed to be motivated by issues with his contract and Redskins management. Employing only Greg Robinson as a noteworthy left tackle, the Browns (receiving more hype than at any point in their second life) should be ready to send a third-round pick for the 31-year-old tackle. -- Sam Robinson

Jay Gruden's employment has been the least of Washington's problems in recent years, with injuries and shaky management causing the team to fall into this low-ceiling trap. At quarterback, Gruden has been saddled with a failed draft choice (Robert Griffin III), caught in the middle of the Bruce Allen- Kirk Cousins saga, saw a potential NFC East title vanish when Alex Smith went down and now has one of the league's worst looking aerial attacks. But with another sub-10-win season coming, which would be Washington's 12th in 13 seasons, Gruden will be the fall guy for the franchise's errors. -- Sam Robinson

Chicago allowed the fewest points and third-fewest yards in the league in 2018, largely because of the addition of Khalil Mack, the only player seriously in the conversation with Aaron Donald as the league's best defender. Chicago's defensive DVOA was one of the 10 best in the league since 1986. However, the defense was helped by its ability to force turnovers (a league-high 36), something that doesn't usually sustain from year to year. Chicago will still be good to very good on defense but won't be a truly dominant unit like last season. -- Chris Mueller

Per Football Outsiders, Trubisky's breakout second season was fueled in part by his ability to perform at nearly the same level against pressure as he did from a clean pocket. The problem with that dynamic is that, like forcing turnovers on defense, it is not predictable from year to year. Proof for that statement comes from the fact that Trubisky was one of the league's worst quarterbacks when pressured in his rookie season. He might still play well against the rush this year, but chances are he won't be as good as in 2018. A slight step back on defense, coupled with a slight step back at quarterback, might be enough to keep the Bears out of the playoffs this year.
-- Chris Mueller

Patricia took over the Lions and things got off to an immediately bumpy start, as they got destroyed by Sam Darnold and the Jets, 48-17, in what was the rookie's first NFL game. The rest of the season wasn't much of an improvement, as Detroit finished 6-10 and there were rumors of internal turmoil. Things have a distinct Patriots feel this year, as Trey Flowers, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin, all three of whom played for Patricia in New England, are now on Detroit's roster. All three should start, and all three are a much better fit for the style of defense Patricia prefers. If "Extreme Makeover: Lions Edition" works, Detroit has potential as an NFC North sleeper.
-- Chris Mueller

Hockenson was the no-doubt best tight end available, and drafting him gives Matthew Stafford a perfect complementary weapon to Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Darrell Bevell is the new offensive coordinator, and it stands to reason that with Hockenson in the fold, there will be more safer throws on the menu for Stafford and less reliance on the type of lower-percentage downfield throws he has attempted most of his career. Hockenson should also open up the deep middle, an area where Stafford was an abysmal 1-of-9 for 39 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions last season, per Pro Football Focus charting. -- Chris Mueller

Adams had a career year in 2018, with 111 receptions for 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns, so imagine what he might look like catching passes from a healthy Rodgers, and having schemes that get him open more easily, rather than Mike McCarthy's reliance on receivers to do their own thing to gain separation. Green Bay has more weapons, an experienced, cohesive offensive line and a motivated quarterback. No one should benefit more from all of that than Adams. -- Chris Mueller

LaFleur was not great as Marcus Mariota's offensive coordinator in Tennessee last season, but Mariota has been inconsistent his whole career and is a third-tier NFL quarterback. Rodgers might be among the handful of most talented players to ever step under center. The ugliness of Mike McCarthy's exit will have LaFleur under the microscope, but media attention cuts both ways.The Packers have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in over a decade, so if his offensive overhaul is the driving force behind a return to prominence, he'll have a good chance at becoming the league's next hotshot young coach.
-- Chris Mueller

Pro Football Focus gave Cousins the third-highest overall grade of his career last year, the second-highest passing grade of his career, while Football Outsiders felt he looked better than ever on film. He threw 30 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions, and yet the Vikes couldn't muster a playoff appearance, and their 8-7-1 mark was a major decline from Case Keenum's 13-3 run the previous season. Cousins was in part a victim of a bad offensive line, among other things, and some Minnesota fans are already unhappy, particularly in light of his fully guaranteed contract. Is he a good quarterback with a bad supporting cast or an average passer playing at a predictable level?
-- Chris Mueller

Green Bay looks like it'll be much stronger. The Bears might take a step back, but they'll challenge for a playoff spot. Detroit is a complete wild card but has added enough pieces that it's not inconceivable that it may make a big jump. Where does that leave the Vikings? Right around the same place they ended last year. This looks like an 8-8 team with a chance to make the playoffs if some breaks go their way. The guess here is that they won't, and the grumbling in the Twin Cities will grow louder. -- Chris Mueller

The Falcons quarterback threw 35 touchdown passes and seven interceptions last season, the former total his second-most in a season and the latter tied for the fewest picks in his 11-season career. Dirk Koetter, who helped Ryan lead the Falcons to two No. 1 seeds in the early 2010s, is back as coordinator for an Atlanta offense that returns Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu — each surpassed 800 yards last season. Also, a scheduling quirk has the Falcons playing 13 indoor games; since 2015 Ryan has thrown 185 indoor TD passes and 97 outdoors.  -- Sam Robinson

In addition to Devonta Freeman playing in two games, the Falcons lost three key defensive starters — top-shelf middle linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen — in September. The Falcons (31st in 2018 defensive DVOA) will rebound , and a near-league-average defense will be enough to usurp a Saints team coming off back-to-back catastrophic playoff exits. Atlanta needs more from its edge rushers, particularly All-Pro defensive end-turned-liability Vic Beasley, but its offense will still do the heavy lifting. -- Sam Robinson

The Panthers are not receiving Saints-level buzz, but they are a perennially well-coached team that qualified for four of the past six playoff brackets. After their Week 1 Rams tilt, the Panthers' schedule lightens up considerably in a season that could feature the NFC South's top three teams cannibalizing each other like vintage Big East basketball powers. Luke Kuechly playing behind a defensive line featuring Kawann Short, Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe and Bruce Irvin poses an intriguing look for Carolina, which needs an imposing defense to succeed. -- Sam Robinson

After his Super Bowl 50 dud canceled a coronation, Newton has not finished with a top-20 QBR figure (25th, 21st, 21st) in the three seasons since. Two shoulder surgeries and inaccuracy issues passing have the 30-year-old superstar facing a critical season in advance of a 2020 contract year. The Panthers have shown they can post winning seasons without their quarterback playing at a Pro Bowl level, but an uneven Newton 2019 will not help the franchise in determining his long-term future. -- Sam Robinson

After their 2017 postseason ended in all-time ignominy, can the Saints be expected to have as good of a Super Bowl shot as they just did? Drew Brees' yards-per-attempt figures dipped late in another dominant year, and this season's Saints have road tests against the Rams, Bears and Seahawks. It is difficult to see the Saints — strong up front and with elite skill-position weapons in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas — missing the playoffs, but it is also hard to see them being as dominant as 2018. The Brees-era Saints: 1-5 in road playoff games. -- Sam Robinson

Stills is trapped as a veteran on a tanking Dolphins team and recently called Stephen Ross out for perceived hypocrisy. While Stills and Ross patched things up, he does not look long for Miami. The Saints shipped their deep threat there in 2015, and he has not matched his 931-yard 2014 season. The Saints have made a few win-now moves in 2018 in parting with draft capital for talent. With 34-year-old Ted Ginn standing as the NFL's second-oldest wideout, might the Saints consider another pick-for-player deal?
-- Sam Robinson

Last season, the Buccaneers boasted three six-sack players. Gerald McCoy (six 2018 sacks) is gone, Jason Pierre-Paul (12.5) will miss much of the season and Carl Nassib (6.5) cannot benefit from better players aiding his sack opportunities. JPP's neck injury makes it possible he has played his final game with Tampa Bay, and Nassib is not a No. 1 edge rusher. Even with Ndamukong Suh (five or fewer sacks from 2016-18), the Bucs — who boast coverage uncertainty after back-to-back last-place DVOA seasons — will struggle to thwart passing attacks. -- Sam Robinson

Arians' comeback does not make sense unless Jameis Winston sticks around post-2019, with it seeming unlikely the brash leader would jump back into coaching to mentor a 2020 draft choice on a basement-level team. But the Bucs are counting on a spotty pass rush and a host of unproven cover men. Winston has weapons but will have a higher degree of difficulty thanks to his choppy on-field history and Tampa Bay's defense, setting up a 12th straight Bucs playoff absence and continuing the NFC's longest postseason drought. -- Sam Robinson

Subjecting their fans to poor dollar value with overly (even for the preseason) vanilla game plans, the Cardinals are doing their best to create a mysterious vibe going into Week 1. Despite Kliff Kingsbury being expected to bring more Air Raid concepts to the NFL than anyone before him, his Texas Tech team averaged 35 running plays per game in 2017. There will be plenty of Johnson volume, with no one of note behind him on Arizona's depth chart, and we will see a version closer to the 2016 superstar (2,118 yards from scrimmage) than the back limited by injuries and an awful offense since.
-- Sam Robinson

A 2018 trade demand gave way to 2019 frustration and, then, a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. No contract extension for the potential Hall of Famer appears imminent, with the eight-time Pro Bowler attached to a deal he inked in 2014. Despite the support he voiced to stay with the Cardinals this offseason, the 29-year-old cornerback figures to be a hot trade candidate near the deadline. The Cardinals are unlikely to return to the playoffs this season, and it would behoove them to acquire assets for Peterson before his 2020 contract year. -- Sam Robinson

Not all ACL tears are created equal, and the Rams' top slot receiver has by most accounts looked great following his rehab months. Kupp was averaging 10.3 yards per target last season — up from 9.2 in an 869-yard rookie year — and was well on pace for 1,000 yards. Jared Goff was not the same quarterback without Kupp, and here is betting the fourth-year passer takes full advantage of having his top chain-moving weapon back in 2019. -- Sam Robinson

The perception of 2018's Marcus Peters trade swung from big Rams win to stunning Chiefs foresight, but given Kansas City's recent (and current) cornerback issues, was dropping the rookie-contract-controlled defender for second- and fourth-round picks wise? Known for on-field gambling and a high-maintenance off-field shtick, Peters started out slowly in Los Angeles but finished the season's second half as the NFL's 13th-highest-rated corner, per Pro Football Focus. With a big contract on the line, Peters will flash his former All-Pro form and be a key reason the Rams push for another playoff bye. -- Sam Robinson

A trendy sleeper pick, the 49ers have been given two mulligan years of sorts. This one counts . Their quarterback has not experienced a setback in his ACL recovery, but numerous 49ers are dealing with injuries — Jerick McKinnon, Weston Richburg, Dee Ford, Nick Bosa among them. We still do not have much of a read on Garoppolo's trajectory, he of 361 pass attempts in five years. The 49ers ranked 28th defensively last season, and their upgrades — Bosa, Ford, Jason Verrett, Kwon Alexander — are coming off injuries, perhaps making San Francisco's contention target year 2020 rather than 2019. -- Sam Robinson

If the 49ers indeed fall short of expectations, which would be a sixth straight playoff absence, there will probably be a fall guy. Given the 49ers' extensive trips through coaching carousels post-Jim Harbaugh, it probably won't be Kyle Shanahan. Lynch, who runs the defensive side of the 49ers operation, has (thus far) missed on key investments — Reuben Foster, Solomon Thomas, Malcolm Smith. It would not be far-fetched to see the Shanahan-Lynch partnership split at season's end, with the 49ers bringing in a more experienced exec to salvage the Shanahan era. -- Sam Robinson

The 2018 Seahawks showed to never underestimate this franchise, as long as Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are involved, but the 2019 effort will be more difficult. Seattle traded Frank Clark (13 sacks last season, most by a Seahawk since Patrick Kerney’s 14.5 in 2007), saw emerging defensive tackle Jarran Reed (10.5 sacks in 2018) draw a six-game suspension and has Clark replacements Ziggy Ansah and first-round pick L.J. Collier injured. It is tough to see how Seattle will succeed at the most important defensive skill, thus weakening the consistent contender’s playoff hopes.
-- Sam Robinson

With probably the second-best receiver in Seahawks history gone, the team moved on with combine freak/iffy on-field producer D.K. Metcalf. The rookie joins Tyler Lockett as the Seahawks' highest-profile targets, with the franchise's tight end situation again looking uninspiring. But Metcalf, who is due to have knee surgery soon, never eclipsed 650 yards at Ole Miss. This situation, with Baldwin no longer drawing coverage away, will tax Lockett and Seattle's younger receivers to the point the run-based offense suffers. -- Sam Robinson

With chaos set to take place this season — defensive holding calls can be changed to pass interference and vice versa, away-from-the-play pass interference infractions (and non-infractions) now reviewable, the Hail Mary loophole, etc. — headsets and tablets will be broken. Suddenly, the Bengals — the one team to vote against this radical change — will look prescient. The NFL instituted a pass interference review policy, and did not follow the AAF's sound sky judge format, on a one-year trial run and too much weirdness will occur for owners to approve it long term at season's end.
-- Sam Robinson

While undoubtedly interesting (and occasionally successful), the Saints managed to take their MVP candidate off the field frequently to insert a gadget player. If Sean Payton saw fit to yank Drew Brees or station him at wide receiver, other teams will make announcing crews learn third-string quarterbacks' histories by trying it. This should not be encouraged for teams with accomplished passers, but with Hill's name buzzing around the league since his debut in this role, more will do so in 2019.
-- Sam Robinson

In hopes of not having potentially contentious collective bargaining agreement negotiations overshadow its 100th season, the NFL set an unrealistic-looking goal of a new deal being hammered out before Week 1. Not only will the owners and players fail to meet that soft deadline, but the talks also will spill over into 2020. With the previous such process having produced a lockout in 2011, there is no reason to think the players will rush into an agreement over a year in advance (the current CBA expires after next season) — especially after it was widely viewed the owners outfoxed them the last time. -- Sam Robinson 

Although Frank Reich and GM Chris Ballard received the bulk of the credit for the Colts turnaround, Eberflus served as the franchise's top defensive voice and guided Indianapolis from 30th in 2017 on defense to 10th last season. He helped a Division I-FCS linebacker (Darius Leonard) beat a loaded field to become Defensive Rookie of the Year. Working without much high-priced talent (and now without Andrew Luck), Eberflus keeping the Colts on the same defensive level will entice a team to swim against the offense tidal wave and hire Indianapolis' defensive coordinator as its next head coach in 2020. -- Sam Robinson

Tagovailoa will go first ahead of Oregon's Justin Herbert, as NFL teams won’t be scared off by his relative lack of height, instead focusing on his accuracy, arm strength and ability to keep plays alive with his feet. The old NFL wisdom would have seen Herbert get the nod, as he possesses the more traditional physical attributes that NFL general managers have long coveted at the position, but the success of shorter quarterbacks around the league will make Tagovailoa too tempting to pass up. The “short” quarterback movement will continue to build momentum in the NFL. -- Chris Mueller

The combination of the Rams' cryptic comments, their third-round selection of Darrell Henderson and their loss of two veteran linemen (guard Rodger Saffold and center John Sullivan) point toward a tougher Gurley year. The reported arthritic knee the 25-year-old running back is dealing with lends to the 2019 Rams using Henderson plenty and even venturing into the NBA-style "Out: load management" realm to preserve their two-time first-team All-Pro. This does not spell doom for the Rams, though; Henderson averaged 8.9 yards per carry in each of his final two Memphis seasons.
-- Sam Robinson

The Kliff Kingsbury-Kyler Murray combination represents one of the more captivating pairs in modern NFL history. A lot will be in play for the one-year phenom, who became the second college quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards and eclipse 1,000 on the ground. Only three rookie QBs have thrown for 4,000 yards and just six have eclipsed 500 rushing yards. Even though the Cardinals will trail a lot, Murray will not hit the 4,000-yard passing barrier. But he will move past 500 on the ground and altogether clear 4,000 total yards. -- Chris Mueller

With a fourth of the league firing coaches after last season, that does not leave as much room for a busy Black Monday (and before and beyond) this time around. That said, there are some surefire hot-seat occupants. This looks like the end for Doug Marrone in Jacksonville, and if the Texans regress, it is hard to see the enduring Bill O'Brien make a case to avoid joining Jay Gruden on the prospective chopping block. (But Andrew Luck's retirement may save one of these embattled coaches' jobs, adding some spice to a now-duller division.) -- Sam Robinson

It's not easy to go from being a supporting actor to the lead. Regardless of what the numbers last year say, Antonio Brown was still the star of the show for the Steelers. Smith-Schuster thrived against single-coverage for much of the year, dominating opponents from the slot on his way to eight 100-yard games and 1,426 yards receiving on 111 catches. This year, he'll face a major uptick in double-team attention, and while he will still produce his numbers will be more in line with what he did as a rookie, and there will be no arguments that he is superior to Brown, as many Steelers fans are hoping. -- Chris Mueller

Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo sang Mayfield's praises when I had a chance to speak with him about the Browns' quarterback, and there's no reason to think that he will regress in year two. Mayfield was excellent throwing both short passes and deep balls, and the only area he struggled was with intermediate throws. Enter Odell Beckham Jr., one of the sport's preeminent playmakers at the intermediate level. Beckham's presence should up Mayfield's game so that he's dangerous all over the field, and should bump him into the mid-30s for touchdown passes — a fitting encore to his record-setting rookie season. -- Chris Mueller

The Ravens did something smart by making sure their backup quarterback had a skill set similar to Lamar Jackson's, because if they run him as much as they have publicly said they will, a contingency plan will be necessary for when he invariably gets hurt and misses time. Griffin's rookie season was vastly superior to Jackson's, but injuries have robbed him of some what made him so special. He'll get a chance to prove he can still hack it this season, though, as Jackson will take a beating and miss at least three games. -- Chris Mueller

Big brother is a five-time first-team All-Pro, who has twice topped 20 sacks in a season, twice led the league in sacks and would be in Canton if his career ended today. He'll be the second-most productive Watt this season, however. T.J.'s 13 sacks paced the Steelers last season, and with defensive coordinator Keith Butler taking a more active role with the outside linebackers, his particular area of expertise, Watt should make an even bigger jump in year three. Put T.J. down for at least 16 sacks this year and possibly close to 20. It's the rest of the Steelers defense that needs to carry their weight.
-- Chris Mueller

Brown has seen supporters abandon ship left and right of late, with James Harrison, Le'Veon Bell and Shannon Sharpe the latest former allies to criticize him. His time with Oakland has been a complete circus and almost too absurd to believe. Guess what? He'll still put up monster numbers. Derek Carr isn't Ben Roethlisberger, but he's not a chump either, and Brown has always been adept at dealing with extra defensive attention. Tyrell Williams' presence will mean teams can't sell out to stop Brown, and that means that he'll get plenty of targets and convert those into plenty of big plays for Oakland. -- Chris Mueller

The Giants are a mess on defense, and Daniel Jones' excellent debut and successful encore have some Big Blue faithful already clamoring for him to take the starting job. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but no matter who is under center, Saquon Barkley will be the focal point of New York's offense and will once again lead the league in yards from scrimmage. What might be more interesting is whether he can do it with fewer touches than the 352 he got as a rookie. -- Chris Mueller

Samuel flashed his big play ability in his first taste of NFL action, notching a 45-yard reception in the Niners' first preseason game. He further showed how dangerous he could be the next time out, taking an end-around 45 yards and showing a major burst of speed in the process. Jimmy Garoppolo's alarmingly bad preseason debut may have scared off some who were previously bullish on the 49ers, but Samuel is the kind of weapon that might make Jimmy G's life much easier once the real action starts.
-- Chris Mueller

You were expecting someone else? Donald has won two Defensive Player of the Year Awards in a row; a third would tie him with Lawrence Taylor and J.J. Watt for most all time. It would also make him the only man in history to win the award three years in a row. Donald is a singularly disruptive force and a unique talent whose speed and strength make him virtually unblockable. He led the NFL with 20.5 sacks last season, and there’s no reason other than injury to doubt that he’ll take home the hardware yet again. Khalil Mack might be the only player with a realistic chance to challenge Donald, whose career is on an incredible trajectory. -- Chris Mueller

Had Ezekiel Elliott not smartly recognized he needed to hold out, he would still be the odds-on favorite to win three rushing titles in four years. Conner checks key boxes — a Steelers backfield largely to himself, a top-class offensive line, a team that will likely lean on the run more post-Antonio Brown and, as the Le'Veon Bell era showed, one unafraid to feed its RB1 —- and averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2018. Saquon Barkley should be favored to out-do Conner, but the Steelers boast a superior passing dimension that should keep defenders from loading up boxes on Conner.
-- Sam Robinson

An offensive lineman has never won this award, hence the Dallas center is plus-3,000 odds coming into the season. But of all the players in contention, Frederick had to come back from the worst setback — a career-threatening Guillain-Barre syndrome encounter. Given the Cowboys' success with a former fourth-round quarterback pick and the team producing three rushing titles in the past five years, another successful Dallas season points to this comeback — and the prospect of a lineman winning an award — gaining acclaim as the season progresses. -- Sam Robinson

While the Eagles' Miles Sanders and Bears' David Montgomery landed in good situations, they do not have as clear of a path toward every-down work. Jacobs is a strange commodity, having had 251 carries in three Alabama seasons yet having flashed enough potential to be a first-round pick. The Raiders' interest in Jacobs made that part of 2019 mock drafts easier, and he will have more rushing and receiving opportunities — with an offensive line that includes Pro Bowler Rodney Hudson and additions Trent Brown and Richie Incognito — than anyone in this draft class.
-- Sam Robinson

The clapping flap was strange and possibly a case of overzealous officiating, and the Cardinals still don’t have a good roster, but they made the right move by turning the keys to the franchise over to Kliff Kingsbury and Murray. There will be growing pains, but Murray’s talents are unique and undeniable, and because he’ll have so many chances to prove himself— barring injury — it just makes sense to assume that he’ll walk away with the hardware. Being a quarterback helps, too. Josh Jacobs was a tempting choice as well, but Murray will have the ball in his hands on every offensive play Arizona runs — so long as he stays healthy. -- Chris Mueller

Tomlin certainly has his share of doubters. His defenses have underwhelmed in big moments for years, and the 13th-season Steelers coach's control of his locker room consistently draws questions. But we are seeing how difficult that task probably was, with Antonio Brown's historic wins over replacement (drama division) 2019 showing. The Steelers boast more defensive talent than at any point since Troy Polamalu's retirement, and if they can hold off the much-hyped Browns and win the AFC North without Brown and Le'Veon Bell, Tomlin is a strong bet to win his first Coach of the Year Award. -- Sam Robinson

Everyone wants to tear down the Browns because Baker Mayfield is unafraid to speak his mind. Many of those same people want to mock Freddie Kitchens as the new Browns head coach, suggesting he’s in over his head. I think there’s something to the idea that the guy who called plays for Mayfield last year, when he set the rookie record for touchdown passes in a season, might be pretty sharp and pretty ready for the task at hand. Here’s a nightmare scenario for the rest of the AFC North: The Browns don’t have any drama derail them, Kitchens presides over everything with an easy, folksy manner, but his players love him and play hard for him, and the Browns go 12-4 and run away with the division. They might not hit that exact record, but I think they’ll be close. -- Chris Mueller

If Tomlin is going to take home Coach of the Year honors, Bush will need to reward the Steelers' Round 1 trade-up. The Michigan product with a 4.43-second 40 time flashed throughout his preseason debut , and the Steelers — after showing odd apathy toward replacing Ryan Shazier in 2018 — parted with key draft capital to add an impact three-down talent this year. The second-generation NFLer will be given every opportunity to showcase his sideline-to-sideline ability in Pittsburgh and become the 10th off-ball 'backer to win this award this century. -- Sam Robinson

Allen flashed in his second preseason game, notching a quarterback hit after picking up a hurry in his first-ever NFL contest. Most were stunned that he was still around when the Jaguars picked him seventh overall, as he was considered the best edge rusher in the draft after Nick Bosa. Adding a high-ceiling rookie to a defense that is loaded as it seems like a good recipe for a possible monster season. Allen's toughest task might be practicing well enough to take away reps from some of his more established teammates. That said, the Jaguars didn't draft him to sit on the bench. Allen will reach double digits in sacks and take home the hardware. -- Chris Mueller

With barely a half-season from all-purpose running back Kareem Hunt and No. 2 wide receiver Sammy Watkins, Mahomes dominated throughout 2018. Not much has changed for the Chiefs, who have an all-time offensive mind ( Andy Reid), the league's best tight end (Travis Kelce), its top deep target (Tyreek Hill) and less of a rushing presence post-Hunt. This award has gone to a quarterback on a team with a playoff bye nine times in the past 10 years, and the Chiefs are loaded up for another run. A boring pick, but this situation combines an elite talent in an ideal situation.
-- Sam Robinson

Rodgers has something to prove , as his 25 touchdowns against only two interceptions looked gaudy, but he wasn’t forcing the ball downfield as aggressively. Rodgers' 7.4 yards per attempt was almost a half-yard lower than his career average. Part of that was injury-related, and part was Mike McCarthy-related, but Rodgers is healthy and has a new head coach with a reputation for being the anti-McCarthy, particularly with regard to scheming wide receivers open. Tight end Jace Sternberger, provided he recovers well from his concussion, should give Rodgers another intriguing weapon to pair with Davante Adams, and with his receivers running free, the only obstacle left will be keeping the 2011 and 2014 MVP upright. -- Chris Mueller

Credit the Ravens, saddled with an unremarkable quarterback for years, for attempting to reach a high innovation level with Lamar Jackson. But I'm with Chris on this one , betting there will be too much ground to cover for Jackson as a passer to allow this experiment to work once teams see this offense on film. While the Ravens rarely have issues replacing pass rushers — as the likes of Za'Darius Smith, Pernell McPhee and Paul Kruger have shown fairly recently —their post-Terrell Suggs defense (No. 3 in 2018 DVOA) will not be able to protect Jackson enough to allow for January 2020 football.
-- Sam Robinson

The Texans are in some ways like the 2018 Steelers South: loaded with spectacular individual talent but possessing a fatal flaw that will keep them from making the postseason. In Pittsburgh's case last year, it was internal turmoil roiling the team as well as its usual spate of inexplicable losses to inferior opponents and Chris Boswell's suddenly unreliable right foot. Houston's problem is that it can't keep Deshaun Watson upright. When Watson is healthy, he'll produce, and so will DeAndre Hopkins as well as J.J. Watt on defense. Problem is that Watson will get hit too much, get hurt, and the Texans will find themselves on the outside looking in. -- Chris Mueller

Seeds: 1. Chiefs; 2. Patriots; 3. Steelers; 4. Texans; 5. Browns; 6. Chargers

Wild-card round: Browns over Texans; Steelers over Chargers

Divisional round: Chiefs over Browns; Patriots over Steelers

AFC championship game: Chiefs over Patriots

-- Sam Robinson

Seeds: 1. Patriots; 2. Chiefs; 3. Browns; 4. Jaguars; 5. Chargers; 6. Jets

Wild-card round: Browns over Jets; Jaguars over Chargers

Divisional round: Patriots over Jaguars; Browns over Chiefs

AFC championship game: Patriots over Browns

-- Chris Mueller

Pete Carroll should have received stronger 2018 Coach of the Year consideration, but it will be a lot to ask of Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Co. to drag this year's Seahawks back to January play. In addition to the previously discussed issues affecting key offensive and defensive components, the Seahawks have road trips slated for Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Charlotte. This schedule, coupled with what could somehow be an even run-heavier offense ( after 534 rushing attempts last season ) post-Doug Baldwin, will make developing for 2020 logical. -- Sam Robinson

Jerry Jones has always courted controversy, but as his war of words with Ezekiel Elliott and his camp escalates, it's fair to wonder if the whole circus could have a tangible impact on this year's team. If Elliott stays away into the regular season, the impact will be felt immediately, as Dallas opens against the Giants and Redskins, two games in which it will be vulnerable if its star running back isn't around. Tony Pollard has looked good so far, but he's not Elliott. The whole situation seems like too much, too soon in terms of drama, and it will sink the 'Boys this season. -- Chris Mueller

Seeds: 1. Rams; 2. Eagles; 3. Falcons; 4. Vikings; 5. Saints; 6. Cowboys

Wild-card round: Saints over Vikings, Falcons over Cowboys

Divisional round: Rams over Saints, Eagles over Falcons

NFC championship game: Eagles over Rams

-- Sam Robinson

Seeds: 1. Packers; 2. Rams; 3. Eagles; 4. Saints; 5. Seahawks; 6. Falcons

Wild-card round: Eagles over Falcons, Saints over Seahawks

Divisional round: Packers over Saints; Eagles over Rams

NFC championship game: Packers over Eagles

-- Chris Mueller

Although the Chiefs offense should again be must-see weekly and book the team all the Al Michaels time slots allowed, banking on Steve Spagnuolo's defense is dicey considering four of his past five units have ranked either 31st or 32nd in yards allowed. The Eagles boast a more complete roster; their staggering depth makes them better-equipped than the Chiefs to withstand injuries. Carson Wentz pulls off what he was not healthy enough to do two years ago, helping the Eagles to a 34-30 conquest (in the Andy Reid Bowl) to give Doug Pederson and ace GM Howie Roseman two Lombardi Trophies in three seasons.   -- Sam Robinson

Why would I go against New England? Why would anyone? It’s a fair question. Every year, doom prophets suggest that the league and/or Father Time will finally catch up with Tom Brady. Every year, those naysayers are wrong. There might be some early-season bumps in the road while Belichick dials in the defense, and Brady searches for a Gronk replacement. But by the end of the year, you know what you’ll be watching: a team with no discernible weaknesses steaming through the playoffs. Football fans will get their dream matchup, with Brady facing off against Aaron Rodgers, and coming out on top, 38-34, for their record seventh Lombardi Trophy. Steelers fans will weep.
-- Chris Mueller