Why the Glowing Predictions About Bears Might Not Be Fantasy

The prediction last week by Adam Rank of a 12-5 Bears season had to send a volt through the ranks of the team's fans even though the NFL Network analyst is a self-proclaimed longtime Bears fan.

It doesn't necessarily mean he's wrong.

He's not the only one saying this sort of thing. Former NFL coach Eric Mangini, writing for The 33rd Team, tagged the Bears the team "that will surprise" this season.

To some, it might seem ridiculous for a 3-14 team to think they are capable of the playoffs after they owned the first pick in the draft, but this didn't seem to bother the Jaguars last year, the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2012 Indianapolis Colts, the 2008 Miami Dolphins, the 2004 San Diego Chargers and 1982 New England Patriots. They all went from owning the worst record in the league to the playoffs.

It takes some unusual circumstances but there are numerous reasons weighing down on the side of the Bears to make something like this possible, if not probable.

While it seems much more likely the Bears could do something like Detroit did last year and improve greatly without making postseason, the next step up to where  worst-to-first teams reside isn't a big one. 

This isn't to say it will happen, but is meant to explain why these Bears playoff predictions are not quite as silly as they sound.

Justin Fields

This is a guy so committed to improvement it almost seems comical that NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky reported teams questioned his work ethic.

On Wednesday, Bears receivers coach Tyke Tolbert told a story about what the Bears quarterback did with his Memorial Day weekend, when the team had an extra day off from OTAs.

"He was here every day, coming into work before anybody gets here, for the most part, and after people leave," Tolbert said. "He's here all the time. 

"I came back in on Memorial Day. I was out of town. I came in on Monday, my car was parked here, the driver brought me here in a car. And Justin was here on Memorial Day getting stuff done. He puts in all the work."

Before last year, very few would have been bold enough to predict Jalen Hurts would be the major reason the Philadelphia Eagles would make the Super Bowl for the 2022 season. He had a mediocre 84.7 passer rating, a 3.8% touchdown rate and completed below 60% of his passes. Then his TD rate went up a full percentage point, completion rate went up to 66.5% and passer rating surged to 101.5. Fields' stats in 2022 were similar in many ways to what Hurts had through his first two seasons.

"We want to see more completions," Bears quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko said. "We want to see more explosives, everything that coach Flus has laid out for us in the offseason where we can grow as an offense.

"We know that we ran the ball well. We know that Justin has special talents doing that. Where our weak spots (are) at and are we seeing growth there? We're seeing growth within his progressions. We're seeing growth within him as he continues to understand the offense. We're seeing that."

Improved Weapons

Getting DJ Moore and last year adding Chase Claypool made a drastic difference. Moore will finally have QB stability after showing he was a model of consistency without ever having it in Carolina.

"I don't want to get too far ahead," tight end Cole Kmet said. "I mean, it's OTAs right now. But you can tell. You see his (Moore's) tape in Carolina and you see what he does just on the field in routes versus air and just how he moves that he's going to be a big impact player for us. For the tight end room, it's big. You've got a guy that can threaten vertically and can do those things and open up zone and holes for us.

"So it's real exciting, and along with the other receivers we've got, with Darnell, Chase, Dante, I think it will be a good group there and we're looking forward to see how it goes."

Better Defense

The Bears offense was so one-dimensional last season it often hid the root of their greatest problem. In fact, Fields was good enough that he was carrying the team, not being a root cause of their problems.

Their defense was the worst in the league over the second half of the season. There was no pass rush. There was no run defense. The pass coverage had been solid and faded from carrying the rest of the defense and also from injuries.

You don't finish last in scoring defense, next-to-last defending the run, last at rushing the passer and last at net passing yards allowed per attempt without realizing Fields' passing wasn't the root of Bears problems last year. When a team gives up 33.1 points a game over the last 10 without ever limiting anyone to less than 25, then fingers of blame get pointed at their QB or receivers, someone needs to learn how to watch the sport of football.

Even without bringing in a big-name edge rusher it's hard to see how they can be close to as bad rushing QBs off the edge this year. The focus of offseason defensive improvement was stopping the run first, as it should be. A defense without the ability to stop the run doesn't have an ability to defend the pass because everyone will simply run on them and then go play-action in the pass game. And opponents did against the Bears all last year. Tremain Edmunds and T.J. Edwards were linebacker additions that address both issues and it should be improved, although there definitely is room for the improvement.

Softer Schedule

The Bears last year played eight games against playoff teams, 10 against teams with winning records and, based on wins and losses of opponents played, had by far the toughest schedule in the NFL last year. What else could be expected from a team with a gutted roster under those circumstances?

This year it's one of the eight easiest schedules based on last year's schedules, which may or may not mean much. At least they know it's a last-place schedule with 11 games against opponents that did not have winning records in 2022.

Four of their first five opponents had losing records last year and one of those is Minnesota, which looks much less formidable than their 13-4 record last year said.  The last four opponents the Bears have this year had losing records last year, as well. The eight opponents the Bears face before the friendly crowd at Soldier Field had a .434 winning percentage last year. The old adage of winning all your home games and than trying to go close to .500 on the road could be an attainable goal with a schedule like that.

Division Instability

It seems everyone is conceding the division to the Detroit Lions, but it's never guaranteed when a team has been perpetually losing and then seems to be on the verge. The Lions had the chance for a breakthrough last year and didn't do it when it was there to be taken. 

The Vikings spent the offseason trying to get rid of players who made the big difference in a 13-4 season that was kissed by the lips of serendipity time and time again. Their true talent level showed in the playoffs. You don't get rid of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Patrick Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson and Erick Kendricks, and then say you're improved. Green Bay doesn't even need to be explained. The Bears would have had one more division title, another Super Bowl appearance and possibly a few more playoff appearances in the last 13 seasons without Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and now he's gone. The division truly is up for grabs without Rodgers around, but the truth is it was actually that way last year while he was still there. The Packers simply have declined. Take him away from Green Bay and what's left?

Bottom Line

The opportunity for a rising team in the NFC North to seize control exists with Minnesota changing over at numerous positions, the Packers obviously at a lower level and Detroit still lacking the certification required to be a playoff team.

It's a perfect setup for a team to shock the division and take control of the North. Whether it's the Bears doing it depends greatly on if they did enough at edge rusher, whether rookie defensive tackles can do enough to compensate for the lack of a dominant edge and—more than anything else—whether Fields gets the blocking to ascend and then does.

None of that appears so far-fetched that the utterings of Adam Rank and Eric Mangini seem like lunacy.