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Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

What Brandon Aiyuk's contract would look like if the 49ers, or any other team, decides to extend him

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated 5/8/24

Now playing on his 5th year option, Brandon Aiyuk is openly pushing for a contract extension. There are reports (that his representation is refuting) that he has gone so far as to ask for a trade in an effort to find a team willing to give him the long-term deal he has clearly earned. But to this point he and the 49ers have not found a deal that is suitable to both parties.

With San Francisco already paying at or near the top of the market for their left tackle, running back, middle linebacker, and defensive end, not to mention the wide receiver that plays opposite Aiyuk, they may not be motivated to lock themselves into another large long term deal at this time.

The 5th year option means Aiyuk does represent a non-insignificant cap hit in 2024 ($14,124,000) but it is still an extreme bargain for the production he has brought over the past three years. But an extension could free up room this year. However, with the bulk of free agency in the rear view mirror, cap savings at this point aren’t nearly as impactful as they could have been in mid-march. So the 49ers may just be content to let Aiyuk play this year on that option.

But what if they want to cash in on Aiyuk’s value in exchange for more cost-controlled talent. He could easily fetch a king’s ransom via trade. A similar deal was struck in 2022 between the Titans and the Eagles that saw a young premier receiver in A.J. Brown dealt to Philadelphia in exchange for the 18th and 101st overall picks in that year’s draft. The Eagles then gave Brown a near top-of-the-market deal of four-years and $100 million.

Aiyuk’s last three years compares favorably to Brown’s three leading up to his trade and extension:

Via A To Z Sports

Brown holds the advantage in efficiency (higher yards per catch and yards per route run) with an extra touchdown per season, but Aiyuk leads the way in every other category. Simply extrapolating that situation signals San Francisco can get a mid-first round and a late day two pick to help restock their roster, while the acquiring team would still have to pony up for a big contract for Aiyuk.

Simply adjusting for cap inflation; the NFL salary cap has risen 23% since 2022 from $208.2 million to $255.4. That would set the market for Aiyuk at four years and $122.5 million and an APY of $30.625 million, just barely outpacing the current position high-water mark of $30 million held by Miami receiver Tyreek Hill. Interestingly, while Hill’s APY is technically the top of the market, in actuality the deal is more of a three-year, $75 million contract with a true APY of $25 million. Aiyuk’s deal would easily supplant Hill’s total along with the rest of the market who’s true leader is Cooper Kupp and his $26.7 million APY.

And Aiyuk may push for a bit more. His 2023 season is easily better than any season Brown produced prior to his trade.

Via A To Z Sports

Aiyuk can reasonably argue that he is improving in volume stats while also leveraging his efficiency metrics up to Brown’s level.

The length of Aiyuk’s deal will be interesting. He just turned 26 in March so a four-year pact would cover his age 26-29 seasons and line him up for his third contract following his 30th birthday. He and his representation may want to avoid that situation and look for a three-year deal in a similar vein to Mike Williams, Chris Godwin and D.K. Metcalf.

But if this extension comes on the heels of a trade where the acquiring team gives up two top-100 picks they will most likely push for a 4th year. That final year would be at a bargain for where the salary cap will be at that point and unguaranteed. So the benefits for the team would be aplenty while the risk would be marginal-to-non-existent.

The whole process will be fascinating to see play out, but one thing's for certain. Brandon Aiyuk will soon be one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL.