Week 4 NFL underdog report: No love for the Dolphins, plenty for the Packers

These teams have the best chance to upset division rivals in their Week 4 matchups.  (For the latest odds, go to OddsChecker.)

Detroit Lions at Green Bay (-1.5)

Packers should be enamored with their starting quarterback after last week’s comeback win against the Saints. Trailing 17-0 after three quarters, Jordan Love threw a touchdown and ran for another to steal the game from New Orleans in the final minutes.

Love finished the day with 259 passing yards against a top-10 Saints defense. He now has 655 yards and seven touchdowns in his first three starts. More importantly, he’s yet to throw an interception.

He’s also been without the team’s best weapon lately. Running back Aaron Jones missed the last two weeks with a hamstring strain, but as wide receiver Romeo Dobbs told The Athletic, "We'll have 33 back." 

Wide receiver Christian Watson is also likely to play after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury. When asked if he would be ready for Thursday night’s game, Watson said, “That’s the plan.”

Historically speaking, the Packers have fared well against the Lions, but last year the Lions eliminated Aaron Rodgers’ Packers from playoff contention with a 20-16 victory at Lambeau Field.

Will the Packers get revenge when the Lions return to Green Bay? If Detroit can’t get players like David Montgomery, Taylor Decker and Kerby Joseph healthy by tomorrow, the Packers could get their second-straight win.

Miami Dolphins  at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The Dolphins beat the Broncos 70-20 on Sunday afternoon, making them the first team to score 70 points in a single game since Washington in 1966. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa went 23-26 for 309 yards and four touchdowns while Miami averaged 10.2 yards per play for 726 total yards against Denver.

So why aren’t the Dolphins favored? The Bills have owned their division rivals lately. Buffalo is 11-1 in their last 12 home games against Miami, winning the last seven. The Bills went 2-1 against the Dolphins last year, including a three-point home victory in the 2022 AFC wild-card game.

However, Buffalo’s two wins were decided by a total of six points, something Dolphins players haven’t forgotten. Dolphins defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah told reporters, “I want to beat them bad because they beat us multiple times.” While right tackle Austin Jackson said, “I don’t use terms like statement games and stuff like that. It’s a big game, for sure.”

Look for a highly motivated Dolphins team to give the Bills defense all it can handle and get their first road win against Buffalo since 2016.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

Beating undefeated Eagles teams is what the Commanders do. Last November, Washington was a 10-point underdog for their Week 10 matchup against Philadelphia. Washington dominated, holding the ball for 40 minutes and 29 seconds while their defense forced four turnovers on the way to a 32-21 victory at Lincoln Financial Field.

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell had four turnovers of his own against the Bills last week, but if he avoids interceptions on Sunday, Washington can take advantage of an Eagles defense giving up the eighth-most passing yards per game.

Philadelphia’s passing game has struggled under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson so far. After three games, the Eagles have the 10th-worst passing numbers in the NFL with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing half as many interceptions as he did last year.

The Eagles have less time to prepare after a road game with the Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.” If Washington finds a way to protect Howell (Buffalo sacked him nine times), the Commanders have enough weapons to hand Philadelphia its first loss.