Week 16 AFC South predictions: Texans get bad week to be without C.J. Stroud

With just three games left in the 2023 season, the race for the AFC South crown will likely come right down to the wire. The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars are in a three-way tie for first place with the five-win Tennessee Titans bringing up the rear. Here are predictions for Week 16’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (8-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (9-5): Houston should be 7-7 heading into this week, and the only reason it’s not is because the Titans couldn’t stay out of their own way last week, blowing a 13-0 lead and letting the Texans stick around at the top of the division. With C.J. Stroud likely out again this week, don’t expect the No. 1-ranked Browns defense to let the Texans hang around or come back from a double-digit deficit like Tennessee did.

Case Keenum is a below-average quarterback who will look below-average against Cleveland, which allows the fewest passing yards per game and has the eight-most sacks in the league. Without Stroud and rookie receiver Tank Dell, the Texans just don’t have the horses to keep up. Joe Flacco has thrown for over 300 yards with five total touchdowns in back-to-back starts (both wins), and the Browns are just too good for a depleted Texans roster to compete with.

PREDICTION: Browns 24, Texans 13

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-8): The Falcons are a mess this season, and Arthur Smith very well may be coaching for his job over the final three games. Atlanta is making a quarterback switch again, going from Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke for the second time, hoping to find some shred of an offensive spark.

Conversely, the Colts are a team playing some of their best football of the year having won five of their last six games with a real shot at winning their division. Gardner Minshew is 5-4 since taking over as Indy’s starting QB, and the team has averaged 332 yards and 24.8 points per game over that span. Regardless of who he’s handing the ball to or throwing to, Minshew has put up several big performances, and I trust him to win a game more than I do Heinicke.

PREDICTION: Colts 31, Falcons 20 

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7): Baker Mayfield may be one of the hottest QBs in the NFL over the last two months, and slowing down Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White will be no easy task for the Jacksonville defense, which ranks in the bottom six of the league.

Losers of three straight, the Jaguars have to give quarterback Trevor Lawrence more help than they have, and that starts with the run game. Travis Etienne hasn’t rushed for more than 50 yards since Week 12, and he’s totaled 75 yards or more on the ground just four times this season. Additionally, with receiver Christian Kirk out, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones and Evan Engram need to step up and be more effective in the passing game. That said, I believe one of the Jags’ playmakers has a big game this weekend and they pull it out in a close one.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 25, Bucs 19

Tennessee Titans (5-8) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-7): With Ryan Tannehill likely starting at QB in place of the injured Will Levis, expect more of the same stagnant offense from Tennessee that was so prevalent through the first six games of the season when the team was 2-4 and barely averaging 17 points per game.

The Titans have little left to play for (despite what some of the players may be saying) and they’re very much a team that can’t wait to get to the offseason when the core of the roster will likely be gutted and revamped. Seattle is still playing for a playoff spot, and whether it’s Drew Lock or Geno Smith slinging the ball around, the Seahawks are clearly the better team.

PREDICTION: Seahawks 27, Titans 16