Week 10 AFC South predictions: Jaguars, Texans facing measuring-stick games

It was another solid showing for the AFC South last week as the Houston Texans pulled off a thrilling last-second win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Carolina Panthers. The Jacksonville Jaguars were on a bye and the Tennessee Titans were the only team in the division to suffer defeat. Here are predictions for Week 10’s slate of AFC South games:

Houston Texans (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3): Following C.J. Stroud’s record-setting 470-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Bucs last week, it’s awfully tough to bet against him and the Texans. But if there’s a QB hotter than Stroud over the last month, it’s Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow. Houston’s pass defense ranks in the bottom third of the league and Burrow has thrown for 1,133 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions during Cincy’s four-game win streak. 

If he gets off to a fast start, the Texans may not be able to keep up. Stroud has gotten virtually no help from his run game – Houston has the fourth-fewest rush yards in the NFL) – and asking him to beat Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins singlehandedly may be putting too much pressure on the rookie, regardless of how much he’s played like a 10-year veteran.

PREDICTION: Bengals 33, Texans 24

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7): This AFC rivalry just isn’t what it used to be. In a matchup of two bad rosters each dealing with season-ending injuries to key offensive players, I wouldn’t expect much from this game. Gardner Minshew has done an admirable job at QB in Anthony Richardson’s place and Jonathan Taylor gets closer every week to being the game-breaking RB he once was before an injury setback kept him out for the first four games of this year.

The Patriots have lost five of their last six games and they’ve scored more than 20 points just once this season. Bill O’Brien has been a disaster as offensive coordinator and Mac Jones is seemingly seconds away from getting benched at any moment. The Pats don’t really pose much of threat on offense or defense, so if Indy can play a clean game, it should cruise to an easy win.

PREDICTION: Colts 21, Patriots 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-3): The Jaguars are facing the 49ers at arguably the worst possible time. Star receiver Deebo Samuel will be returning to the lineup after missing the last three weeks and former No. 2 overall pick Chase Young will be making his team debut opposite Nick Bosa after being acquired at last week’s trade deadline.

Jacksonville’s offensive line, which has allowed just 19 sacks this year, will face its toughest test to date and running back Travis Etienne, who ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing with 583 yards, will have his work cut out for him against a 49ers run defense that allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (86.1).

PREDICTION: 49ers 31, Jaguars 22

Tennessee Titans (3-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5): Will Levis has been handed the key to the franchise and now the rookie has nine games to show the Titans what he can do. Tennessee has averaged 74 more yards of total offense, 62 more passing yards and five more points per game in Levis’ starts than it did with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, so expect to see the Titans really challenge the Bucs secondary.

Conversely, Tampa has had a rough go of things, dropping four straight after a 3-1 start. The Bucs lost a last-second heartbreaker to Houston last week and one has to wonder if they’ve fully recovered from it. Tennessee is just outside the top 10 in scoring defense, and the Bucs don’t put up very many points (they’ve scored more than 20 points once in the last four weeks). This likely won’t be a high-scoring game, but the Titans have just a little more offensive firepower to pull out a win.

PREDICTION: Titans 26, Bucs 20