'TNF' preview: Where Jaguars may have edge on Saints

"I feel a lot better today than I would have thought," he said Tuesday. "I'm going to do everything I can to be out there on Thursday."

Fortunately for the Jags, the Saints have not taken advantage of golden opportunities against weakened opponents, such as the Packers and Bucs, this season. In its 18-17 win in Week 3 win over the Saints, Green Bay was without several starters, including running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson. 

The following week, Tampa Bay was without multiple defenders and lost wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) at halftime of its 26-9 victory. The backup QB in Jacksonville is C.J. Beathard, the former 49ers QB who last started in 2020. He'll be under center if Lawrence can't go.

Jaguars receivers vs. Saints secondary: Jaguars receivers Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley may have a challenging game against a deep Saints secondary. New Orleans ranks second in opponent completion percentage (55.9 percent), has the most passes defended (40) and is fifth in interception rate (4 percent).

Kirk leads Jacksonville with a 23.6 target share and is on pace for 1,088 yards receiving. Ridley and tight end Evan Engram had higher shares in Week 6 and round out a receiving group that will be an excellent matchup for the Saints.

Does Jacksonville lean on Travis Etienne? The Texans discovered something against New Orleans in Week 6 that the Jaguars could be keen to duplicate. Houston ran 31 times for 120 yards against the Saints, with the bulk of those yards coming in the first half. 

Etienne leads the league with 113 rushing attempts and has already matched his touchdown total from his rookie season (five). He's had an up-and-down season, averaging over four yards per carry in Weeks 1, 3 and 5 and fewer than four yards in Weeks 2, 4 and 6, which bodes well for his output in Week 7.

Ball security: Jacksonville's second-best turnover margin suggests ball security isn't an issue, but New Orleans has developed a penchant for forcing mistakes. The Saints have forced a turnover in 11 consecutive games dating back to Week 13 of the 2022 season, and Jacksonville has turned the ball over in all but one game this season (Week 4 against the Falcons). 

New Orleans might struggle on offense, but one of the ways the team can stay competitive — and get the Caesars Superdome crowd into the game — is for the defense to force turnovers.

WHEN NEW ORLEANS IS ON OFFENSE

Red-zone woes: New Orleans took a step back last week despite gaining a season-high 430 yards. The offense was 0-3 in the red zone, dropping it to 28th in the league inside the 20 this season, scoring touchdowns only 36.8 percent of the time.

Quarterback Derek Carr hasn't been good in that area, going 11-of-25 for 68 yards and four touchdowns. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 red-zone pass attempts, only Seattle's Geno Smith (43.3 percent), Houston's C.J. Stroud (41.7 percent), Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett (37.5 percent) and the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford (34.6 percent) have worse completion percentages.

Get-right game for Jags defensive front? An early mystery this season has been the nonexistent Jaguars pass rush. Jacksonville is tied with New England for fifth-fewest sacks (12) in the league, despite three first-round picks on defense (edge-rushers Josh Allen, K'Lavon Chaisson and 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker). The Saints are tied for sixth most sacks allowed (19) and benched the 19th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, tackle Trevor Penning, in Week 6, before reinserting him into the lineup after James Hurst suffered an ankle injury.

Need for (Rashid Shaheed's) speed: New Orleans's most explosive playmaker is the undrafted second-year wideout Shaheed. At Weber State, he set the FCS record for kick-return touchdowns (seven) and has translated that big-play ability to the NFL. He has 298 receiving yards on 16 reception, with an average depth of target of 18.2 yards. 

Jacksonville has allowed the most receiving yards this season, but that's misleading. Per Pro Football Reference, the Jags are ninth in expected points added by its pass defense, allowing nine touchdowns to eight interceptions, and are second to New Orleans in passes defended (36).

Pete Carmichael Jr.'s play-calling: The Saints talent-to-scoring ratio places them among the worst offenses in the league. How does an offense with Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Taysom Hill and Shaheed struggle so much? 

It's becoming harder for general manager Mickey Loomis to rationalize maintaining the status quo when it isn't leading to wins. The Saints should have a record better than 3-3. That reflects poorly on offensive coordinator Carmichael Jr., who has been in his post since 2009. If the offense continues struggling to do the simplest things right, the unit will need a massive shakeup.