The safest picks in the first round of fantasy football drafts

With the 2023 NFL preseason finally behind us, fantasy football drafts are beginning to ramp up. Barring injury, it's hard to make a mistake with your first-round draft pick, but some players carry less risk than others. Here are the four safest first-rounders in ESPN PPR leagues. 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver (ADP: 1.5)

The clear No. 1 pick in drafts, not much needs to be said about the 24-year-old's talent that we don't already know. Jefferson's 4,825 career receiving yards are the most by a player through their first three seasons, edging out Randy Moss' second-highest total by 662 yards with only two more games played. 

That type of unprecedented production has obviously translated to fantasy football, as Jefferson has also scored the most PPR points ever by a wideout through their first three seasons (973.3). In terms of finishes, Jefferson was the WR6 as a rookie, the WR4 in 2021 and the WR1 overall last season, when he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), and receiving yards (1,809). 

Although San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey and Chargers dual-threat tailback Austin Ekeler — the RB1 overall last season — might seem like appealing options, there's no need to overthink this one, draft Jefferson at the 1.01. 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver (ADP: 3.1)

Should you miss out on Jefferson, drafting his former LSU teammate Chase wouldn't be such a terrible consolation prize. 

Despite missing four games with a fractured hip and having his Week 17 game against the Bills canceled due to safety Damar Hamlin going into cardiac arrest, Chase finished as the WR11 overall in PPR formats. Chase may not be Jefferson, yet his underlying stats stack up well, making him a potential contender to finish as the WR1 overall.

As pointed out by FantasyPros' Andrew Erickson, Chase had a higher target share than Jefferson (30% vs. 28%) and an identical air yards percentage (39%) when healthy. Chase earned 24 red zone targets last season, the third-most for a wideout, and scored just five touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. If he and quarterback Joe Burrow can connect on a few more touchdowns, Chase could easily lead the league in that category this season. 

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs tight end (ADP: 5.6)

He may be entering his age-34 season and is being drafted earlier than ever, but Kelce continues to show that he's worth the investment and why he's the most decisive advantage in fantasy football. 

Last season, Kelce finished as the TE1 for the sixth time in his career, outscoring the TE2 (T.J. Hockenson) by 100.9 PPR points. Kelce is in such a class by himself that if he were listed as a wideout, he would've finished as the WR5. 

With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City's top wide receiver in 2022, now in New England, Kelce could easily surpass his impressive 24.76% target share from last season, which was the 15th-highest in the NFL. While he typically goes fifth overall, drafting Kelce as high as the third pick isn't a terrible move, and chances are, you can draft Patrick Mahomes in the third round to pair with him. 

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons running back (ADP: 10.3)

Historically, when a team spends a top-10 pick on a running back, the most replaceable position in the sport, that player is set up to thrive in fantasy football. Since 2015, each rookie running back that fits the criteria has finished inside the top-12 at the position in fantasy, including Giants star Saquon Barkley, who was the RB1 overall in 2018.  

Entering a fantastic situation in Atlanta, Robinson, the eighth overall pick in April's draft, is well-positioned to join this elite company. If one thing is for certain, running backs need a ton of volume to perform at their best in fantasy, and Robinson should expect to receive one of the largest workloads in the NFL.

Atlanta recorded the most rushing attempts among teams last season (559) and should continue to lead the league in the category this season. Additionally, Atlanta should get Robinson, who caught 60 passes in his collegiate career, involved in the passing game, thereby boosting his PPR value.