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Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins want to extend Tua Tagovailoa, here's how much his new contract will cost

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated 5/8/24

Talking about Tua Tagovailoa’s contract extension is a guaranteed way to start a Twitter/X war. Tua is the last quarterback of a legendary 2020 quarterback class that blessed the NFL with five franchise quarterbacks in Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts, and himself.

Burrow and Hurts each made Super Bowls while on their rookie deals, some pundits believe Herbert is the most physically gifted of them all, and Love has turned heads since taking Aaron Rodgers’ mantle in Green Bay. Tua just led the top passing offense in the NFL. Without starting internet beef over which quarterbacks are better than who, it’s very clear each deserves to be signed to a lucrative extension - and only Love and Tagovailoa have yet to do so.

Mike McDaniel has raved about Tua since becoming the Miami Dolphins head coach, and while their regular season offensive dominance has yet to translate to postseason success, there is no reason to suggest anyone in the building believes they’d be better off testing the quarterback carousel… despite their lack of urgency to put a deal together thus far.

After two questionable seasons to start his career, Tua has had two excellent seasons that started with McDaniel’s arrival. His 2022 campaign was marred with concussion concerns that caused him to miss four games. The biggest question he had to answer in 2023 was whether he could make it through a full season, and in a season where quarterbacks were being injured at an alarming rate, Tua stayed healthy and led the Dolphins to their second straight playoff appearance.

If we try to use Tua’s last two years and compare them against the two years before each of the below quarterbacks signed their respective deals (with Kirk’s Achilles year omitted), here’s how everyone stacks up:

Via A To Z Sports

Tua’s counting stats are a little lacking even in just a two year sample because of his missed games in 2022. His efficiency stats place him tops in this group in yards per attempt, but he had the third highest attempts per touchdown and the lowest attempts per interception. To paraphrase: he excels at moving the ball downfield, but he needs to take better care of it. The average touchdown production can easily be explained by the Dolphins league-leading 27 rushing touchdowns, it shouldn’t be a concern that heavily influences negotiations.

Because of the missed games in 2022, measuring these players against their platform years may give us a better indication of where Tua slots amongst these quarterbacks:

Via A To Z Sports

Tua’s single-season comparison echoes the same sentiments as his two-year look, but he does lead the pack in completion percentage and improves in attempts per interception, with Stafford throwing interceptions five attempts earlier than Tua.

Tua’s two-year completion percentage matches Stafford’s contract year, which was his only year with the Rams before signing his extension. They have similar yards per attempt figures - the biggest difference between the two is their touchdown production. In 2021, the Rams were dependent on Stafford’s arm, as they ranked 24th in rushing yards per attempt and 28th in rushing touchdowns.

Tua’s camp will push for compensation comparable to what Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert received, but he’s lacking the body of work to support that kind of valuation. Stafford might be considered a reasonable floor, as their efficiency metrics are very similar and could project what Tua’s stats would resemble if they leaned heavier into the passing game in Miami.

Via A To Z Sports

When Mike McDaniel was coaching the 49ers, they signed Jimmy Garappolo to a record-setting contract in 2018 after trading with the Patriots to acquire him. His cap share at the time of signing was only 15.52% despite leading the 49ers to an incredibly impressive five game winning streak after they went 1-10 without him, which in today’s dollars equate to approximately $40 million. That may be where McDaniel believes a quarterback should be capped in his QB-friendly system.

Although this $40 million valuation lines up with the Matthew Stafford comparison, Tua should push for Staffords cap share, not his APY. Stafford’s 19.21% share in 2022 equates to just over $49 million in 2024. A $49 million APY places a safe distance between Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert figures. Tua would be wise to take a shorter deal than Burrow and Herbert, since his main detractor for a bigger payday is lack of sustained success. After a couple years of repeating his 2023 performance with some improvement to his interception rate, we could see a record-setting contract for Tua. Market setting just isn’t in the cards for this extension.