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Super Bowl prediction: Expert projections reveal most likely final score

Originally posted on Action Network | By Matt Trebby | Last updated 2/8/24

The 49ers vs. Chiefs spread shows that this matchup is very, very close.

On one hand, there is a juggernaut San Francisco offense led by a quarterback whose Cinderella story could go from Mr. Irrelevant in April 2022 to Super Bowl MVP less than two years later. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes could add yet another Lombardi Trophy to his resume as he continues creating an impressive "GOAT" resume.

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The Super Bowl point spread is 49ers -2, with a couple of shops posting -2.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The game total is at 47.5 across the board.

One of our data-driven analysts created a simulator for a Super Bowl prediction based on 25,000 simulations of 49ers vs. Chiefs on Sunday in Las Vegas. The goal was to answer the question "What is the most likely final score for Super Bowl 58?"

Super Bowl Prediction: Expert Projections Reveal Most Likely Final Score

Super Bowl Final Score Projection

49ers 24, Chiefs 21

Predictive analyst Nick Giffen has the spread projected as at Chiefs +1.9 and the total at 47.25. Giffen has 49ers 24, Chiefs 23 at the median individual score for each team. What does that mean? It means 50% of the time, the 49ers will score 24 or more points and the same for the Chiefs scoring 23 or more points.

The single most-common combined score, though, is 49ers 24, Chiefs 21, with 49ers 27, Chiefs 24 coming in not far behind. The most common final total for the game is 47, which is directly in line with the betting market.

One of his 25,000 simulations ended 49ers 18, Chiefs 17. San Francisco scored through two touchdowns and extra points and two safeties, while Kansas City got to 17 points through two touchdowns and extra points to go with a field goal.

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