Super Bowl referee Bill Vinovich. Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Super Bowl LVIII referees: How to bet based on prior trends

Originally posted on Action Network | By Malik Smith | Last updated 2/1/24

The Super Bowl referee will be Bill Vinovich. The Action Network has compiled a litany of data on Vinovich to indicate what type of referee he is for bettors. A massive hat tip to Action Network's director of research Evan Abrams for the information in this story.

Super Bowl 58

Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

49ers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-2 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	-130

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+2 -110	47.5 -110o / -110u	+110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

49ers vs. Chiefs Referee: Bill Vinovich

There are specific Super Bowl trends, but they're tiny. Vinovich has reffed three Super Bowls (including the last time these two teams met) but since the sample size is small, we'll skip those trends.

The most pressing trend involving Vinovich is on the under. Over the last decade, Vinovich-led games are 97-66-1 (60%) on the under. A $100 per game bettor wagering blindly on the under for games with Vinovich as the head referee would have made $2,468 for a 15% ROI — the best in the NFL by far.

In all, the under is 73-43 (63%) in Vinovich games since 2017.

For reference, you need to win roughly 52.4% of over/under bets to be profitable. Blindly tailing Vinovich far exceeds that mark.

In addition, underdogs do well with Vinovich as referee, too. Dogs are 57-41-2 ATS (58%) since 2018, making Vinovich the fourth-most profitable referee for underdogs over that timeframe. That trend actually regressed this season, though, with underdogs going 7-8-1 ATS.

On the moneyline, it's a different story. If you bet $100 on every underdog under Vinovich since 2017, you'd have made over $3,600, a 31% ROI and the best out of any other referee.

For those interested, Vinovich's third Super Bowl reffed was Patriots vs. Seahawks in the famous goal-line interception game.

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