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New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17). Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sunday Six-Pack: Week 6 NFL betting guide

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 10/13/23

Sit back and relax, we've got your NFL Week 6 looks covered with our refreshing Sunday Six-Pack. We've looked at plenty this week, and it's these six that really stand out for the weekend slate.

Last week was our first losing week here, going 2-4. That brings our year's total to 17-13 (56.6%). Let's get back to our winning ways in Week 6.

Watson-Shmatson: Back the Browns at +10 (-110 DraftKings)

This is a massive spread, especially when you consider Cleveland is at home. We get it, Deshaun Watson is out again. The drop off is tough at QB, but this spread is simply too large.

Let us say again, we get it. San Francisco has looked like the most dominant team this season, often blowing the doors off teams. While the Browns offense may have a tough time here, the defense should be up to the task.

Don't sleep on this Cleveland defensive unit. They're allowing the third-fewest points per game and the fewest yards per game. DVOA has the Browns as the best defense in all of football.

The trend making its round this week is that around Cleveland's defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz. Schwartz has had San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan's number, currently 8-1 against him in nine meetings.

We're not saying Cleveland beats San Francisco without Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but we are saying they can keep this game within 10 points.

Going chalk: Raheem Mostert TD (-140 Caesars)

We completely acknowledge how chalky of a pick this is, but can you really blame us? De'Von Achane is out, which should give Raheem Mostert a few extra carries in this Miami offense.

Mostert leads the NFL with eight touchdowns, and how he's playing a Panthers team that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs this year. Can we end our analysis there? Great.

Pass the points: Minnesota-Chicago over 44 (-110 DraftKings)

We've got both Minnesota's and Chicago's secondaries as targets we want to bet against. D.J. Moore should pop against the vulnerable Vikings, and T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison feel set to take over Justin Jefferson's usage and pile up the yards against a truly horrible Bears secondary.

Rather than figure out the exact players who are going to score and have big games, we're thinking the over is just the way. Two of the past three meetings between these two has exceeded this total.

Time to do it again: Calvin Ridley over 59.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

Calvin Ridley and the Jaguars are facing the Indianapolis Colts for the second time this season. In the first meeting, Ridley went for 101 yards. Last week, Ridley had his best game as a Jaguar, going for 122 yards against a tough Buffalo defense.

Now, he gets the Colts again, one of the worst secondaries in football who just let DeAndre Hopkins pile up 140 yards against them.

Can it really be that simple? It sure feels like it here.

Las Vegas Reunion: Raiders -3 (-110 DraftKings)

Have you watched any of these Patriots games lately? Even if you haven't, have you at least checked the results lately? Over the past two weeks, the 1-4 New England Patriots have been outscored 72-3. Yep, that is not a typo.

Mac Jones and this offense look like the worst unit in all of football, and the defense isn't doing much to help out.

Now, Bill Belichick will face off against his former protege Josh McDaniels and his former backup QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders are sitting here at 2-3 and have shown some toughness this year that we candidly did not expect.

Three points feels like a gift for any team that plays the Pats.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

Philly's Achilles' heel: Garrett Wilson over 50.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)

The Philadelphia Eagles have shown absolutely no ability to slow down opposing wide receivers. Cooper Kupp went for 118 last week and Puka Nacua piled on 71 of his own. In four out of their five games this season, multiple WRs have gone over their receiving yardage prop, fueling the eighth-most passing yards allowed this season.

Garrett Wilson has been Zach Wilson's top target and seems sure to get some work in this one. Wilson has gone over this number in three of four and should see little resistance against an Eagles defense that is allowing the third-most receptions per game to WRs.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for more previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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