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Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1). Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday Six-Pack: Week 18 NFL betting guide

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/6/24

For the last time this season, we have all 32 NFL teams in session, and there's plenty to care about before the playoffs begin. We've crunched the numbers, studied the matchups, and what's come of it is our six favorite bets for Sunday.

We went just 2-4 last week and need to end this year on a high note. We're currently 51-44-1, and the below is just what is needed to end the regular season right.

Losing sucks: Titans +3.5 (-108 DraftKings)

Mike Vrabel has gone on record stating "losing (bleeping) sucks" so don't expect Tennessee to roll over and this year with a whimper. Jacksonville is incredibly banged up right now and really struggling to find wins over the past month and a half. We'll take the home 'dogs to at least keep this close and perhaps even keep Jacksonville out of the playoffs altogether.

WR1 should win: Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown (+140 Caesars)

Minnesota ranks among the best targets in the NFL for wide receiver receptions and touchdowns, and that's where Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown comes in. He scored two weeks ago against the Vikings and now has a touchdown in six of his last eight games.

The Lions seem likely to play their starters and keep momentum rolling into the postseason, we're liking St. Brown to find the end zone.

Playing spoiler: Bears +3 (-115 DK)

Chicago is playing extremely well right now, and if they could have just picked up one more win this year, we'd be talking about them as a team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. Justin Fields is playing for his future with Chicago, and Matt Eberflus would surely like to end this year strong to help carry over this momentum into 2024.

It sure would be sweet for the Bears to end their rival Green Bay's season here, and with the Packers defense being shaky of late, we think they can.

This feels ugly: Eagles -5.5 (-110 DK)

We're acknowledging how ugly it feels to back Philadelphia in this spot; we've been fading them the last few weeks. But on this day, it just seems time for the Eagles to deliver a semi-convincing win and head into the playoffs on some semblance of a high note.

The Giants are awful, and they were only in the Christmas Day game against the Eagles because of a few fluky plays. Back Philly to win by 6+ here; they've had the Giants' number for years.

Pour it on: Cowboys -13 (-110 DK)

Staying in the NFC East, it feels like an inevitability that Dak Prescott and these wide receivers are going to torch Washington. The Commanders clinch the second spot in the draft with a loss, and their secondary is horrendous.

We expect some not-so-subtle tanking from Washington here as Dallas cruises to a road win and the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Run, don't walk: Kenneth Walker over 59.5 rushing yards (-110 ESPN)

Kenneth Walker seems poised for a big game on Sunday against an Arizona Cardinals defense allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs. Walker has enjoyed some strong outings against Arizona in his young career, going for 97+ yards in three straight meetings. We only need 60 on Sunday.

Seattle is fighting for a wild-card spot and the Seahawks should be giving it their all in this one.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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