Sam Howell still deserves a shot with the Commanders in 2024

Yes, Sam Howell has been mostly disastrous ever since Thanksgiving. He's thrown 10 interceptions while scoring seven total touchdowns (three passing, four rushing) in his past six games, all losses for the Commanders, and was going to be benched for Jacoby Brissett against the 49ers before Brissett was injured during practice.

He also looked like a franchise QB through the season's first ten games. Following a 312-yard, three-touchdown, zero-turnover performance against the Seattle Seahawks on Nov. 12, he led the NFL in passing yards and "big-time throws," per Pro Football Focus.

Howell didn't just suddenly forget how to play football. His confidence was shot by a roster and coaching staff that has thrown in the towel on the season — and there's no reason to think it can't be restored by new surroundings. Anyone wanting to give up on his potential is merely a prisoner of the moment and is failing to understand the full risk involved in drafting a first-round quarterback.

It's easy to get carried away with those hot, shiny prospects in this instant gratification-dominated culture that has taken over sports today, in which patience is nonexistent and nobody is ever more valuable than the next guy. However, the draft is a crapshoot, and a quarterback is a big investment — one that historically has a much better chance of paying off when a team is already set up to win.

No one expected Patrick Mahomes, the 10th pick in 2017, to become Patrick Mahomes. No one expected Lamar Jackson, the 32nd pick in 2018, to become Lamar Jackson. Then there's Brock Purdy, taken with the final pick in the draft in 2022 by the 49ers. What do they all have in common? All were drafted by teams with well-established structures, that were only a QB away from being Super Bowl contenders.

The success rate of quarterbacks drafted by rebuilding teams is much lower. Just take a look at 2023's No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, currently being mismanaged in Carolina. Young could still redeem himself, but not unless the team around him improves, just as it did for recent picks such as Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa, who were also once deemed as busts.

Should the Commanders draft a quarterback this coming spring, a trajectory similar to Fields or Tagovailoa may be the best hope. It would be a high-risk move with a potentially high reward, but only if the team is capable of quickly building around its new signal-caller.

Meanwhile, who is to say Howell isn't also capable of having that trajectory? Had he by some chance suffered a season-ending injury following the Seahawks game, he would be looked at as the unambiguous QB of the future in D.C. entering next season. Just because the recency-biased hive-mind has decided he's damaged goods doesn't necessarily make it true.

Unless USC's Caleb Williams — the presumed No. 1 pick who is believed to have franchise-altering superstar upside — were to fall to Washington, the safest thing for the Commanders to do at QB this offseason is to give Howell a chance to build upon a season in which he did show promise at one point, while focusing on repairing other areas of the roster such as the offensive line and defensive backfield.

The best-case scenario is that he returns to his early-season form with a mental reset and a new coaching staff, while the Commanders improve around him. The worst case is that he turns out to just not be the guy, and guess what? The 2025 draft will also have quarterbacks in it.
So Washington can take a QB if the team is confident that a new regime can come in and quickly build a roster that will maximize them. However, sticking with Howell should at least be considered a more than acceptable Plan B.