Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 7

The result was obviously disastrous, but the decision wasn’t much better because this cost Washington 6.4 points of expected win probability. That might not seem like much, but considering the Commanders’ low odds to win regardless of the fourth-down decision, a go-for-it call improved their odds by about a quarter.

Second-best: Not Playing To Get A Stop And Get The Ball Back

The Situation: 2:50 to go in the fourth quarter, Bills down five, fourth-and-2 from the Patriots’ 8-yard line

The Decision: Go for it

The Result: A Josh Allen completion then a subsequent touchdown and successful 2-point conversion, only to lose to an inexplicable Mac Jones two-minute drill

It would be pretty easy to overlook this decision as a no-brainer, but the fact of the matter is there are a lot of coaches who would have kicked the field goal, especially considering Mac Jones was the opposing quarterback. The Buffalo Bills had two timeouts and the two-minute warning left, so it may have been tempting to send the field goal unit out and angle for a defensive three-and-out.

Going for it was comfortably the correct decision because it increased the Bills’ expected win probability by nearly 13 percentage points compared with a kick, which, considering the game state, improved their odds by 50 percent.

When the New England Patriots got the ball back, their win probability was 30 percent, so I would say this is an example of a good process leading to good results — but unfortunately for Buffalo, the impossible happened when Jones led an eight-play, 85-yard touchdown drive to win the game.

Worst: Kicking A Field Goal On Fourth-and-1 In An Important Divisional Game

The Situation: Late third quarter, Falcons and Buccaneers tied, fourth-and-1 from the Buccaneers’ 23-yard line

The Decision: Field goal attempt

The Result: Made field goal

This was pretty comfortably the worst decision of Week 7, ceding about 10 percentage points of expected win probability compared with a “go” call. The Atlanta Falcons had just been stuffed on third-and-1 but had been averaging 3.8 yards a carry prior to this fourth down.

Atlanta entered the week ranked seventh in Total Points/rush and had the third-highest neutral-script run rate. This is a run-first team, at least by modern NFL standards, and the Falcons didn’t play to their strength on this fourth-and-1 in a tied, divisional game on the road.

It worked out in the end — the Falcons won by a field goal and are now first in the NFC South — but this wasn’t a great thought process.

Best: Going For It On Fourth Down, Getting It And Doing It Again on Same Drive

The Situation: 11:52 to go in the fourth quarter, Packers down six, fourth-and-1 from the Broncos’ 29-yard line

The Decision: Go for it

The Result: Hitting undrafted rookie TE Ben Sims for a 2-yard conversion

Matt LaFleur has historically been good in his fourth-down decision-making, and this game was no different. The Green Bay Packers went for it not once, but twice on this drive; first on the 29-yard line and then three minutes later on the 4-yard line with two yards to go.

Green Bay converted on both, added 22.5 percentage points in expected win probability by doing so, and ultimately scored the go-ahead touchdown.

This article was written by Bryce Rossler.