Odds of Jeff Saturday's Dismissal Revealed By Bettors

Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay took a big risk when firing head coach Frank Reich midseason and replacing him in the interim with Jeff Saturday.

Things had gone sour under Reich as the team often showed up on gamedays flat and uncompetitive. Despite having no college or professional coaching experience, Irsay appreciated Saturday for his fiery demeanor and accountability as a former Colts player. However, things have predictably gotten even worse under Saturday as the Colts sit with a record of 4-11-1 ahead of their final game of the season.

As a result of this downward spiral, sports bettors aren't giving Saturday very good odds of being retained as the team's permanent head coach moving forward.

Actually, Bookies.com has Saturday as the second-least-likely coach to be retained by their team, trailing only Lovie Smith of the Houston Texans. The site's Bill Speros describes the situation, "Reich was dumped by the Colts and replaced with Jeff Saturday, who has trouble winning on any day."

• Lovie Smith, Houston Texans: -175 | +150
• Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis Colts: -150 | +130
• Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders: -145 | +125
• Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals: -135 | +150
• Steve Wilks, Carolina Panthers: -125 | +105
• Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns: +115 | -135
• Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +160 | -190
• Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders: +180 | -250

The Colts, Carolina Panthers, and Denver Broncos are the three teams that have already fired their head coaches and appointed interim, so it's not necessarily that Saturday would be fired, but more that he wouldn't be retained or hired in an official capacity as the full-time head coach.

The Colts offense hasn't been good at any point this season regardless of the head coach, but despite the offensive line improving, the unit as a whole has remained abysmal. They currently rank 29th overall offensively (306.3 YPG), 29th on third down (33.0%), tied-30th in scoring (16.1 PPG), 31st in red zone scoring (44.2%), and 32nd in turnovers (31).

The Colts have five games scoring 10 or fewer this season, including three with 3 points or fewer (Saturday's group has one of each). The Colts also have three games reaching 10 or fewer first downs (Saturday with one), and two games where they didn't convert a single third down (Saturday with one). Saturday's team also has one of the team's two games amassing less than 200 yards of offense.

The defense had been awesome for much of the first half of the season, typically ranking in the top five overall. However, the dam finally broke and the defense could no longer carry the entire team. As a result, they've slumped to 16th overall defensively (332.4 YPG), tied-23rd (18) in takeaways, 28th in scoring (24.7 PPG), and 31st in red zone scoring allowed (67.4%).

As a matter of fact, according to Horseshoe Huddle's Zach Hicks, the Colts have more losses by three or more scores under Saturday than their final opponent, Houston, does all season. The Texans are widely considered the worst team in the NFL.

Per Hicks, with a loss on Sunday, Saturday (.142) would join Dave McGinnis of the Arizona Cardinals (.111) as one of just two interim head coaches in the NFL since 2000 to have a win percentage under .200 (minimum 8 games coached).

Since 2010, there have been nine interim head coaches that have coached eight or more games in a single season. Saturday (who will be coaching his eighth game this Sunday) is the only one of the nine to not lead the team to a better record in the interim than the coach they replaced, per Hicks.

"The Colts have lost six straight under Saturday and have been outscored by 86 points since he took over," The Athletic's Zak Keefer wrote recently. "In three of their last four games, the Colts have allowed their opponent runs of 30 or more unanswered points — 31 to the Giants, 32 to the Vikings, 33 to the Cowboys."

The aforementioned references a Dallas Cowboys-record 33 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, and the Minnesota Vikings coming back from being down 33-0 to complete the biggest comeback in NFL history.

While Saturday was put in an impossible situation and much of what the Colts put on the field has looked worse than before he got there, he did reflect this week on what he feels has improved.

“Oh man, I’ll have a lot more time to reflect when it’s over," Saturday told reporters on Friday. "I think from an offensive line, they’ve gotten better. The two young guys (Bernhard Raimann and Will Fries) have gotten better. I’ve seen receivers continue to get better. From running backs, we’ve got two guys who really didn’t have much going (Zack Moss and Deon Jackson) and those guys have continued to work – tight end. And then obviously defense, you’re seeing a lot of young guys because of injuries and guys moving in and out. I think guys have responded well."

"So, when you’re looking at it from a foundational piece, what pieces can you build on?" Saturday continued. "I think that’s what you’ve been trying to find the last eight weeks, is what’s the nucleus of this team really look like and who are those guys.”

If the Colts do promote Saturday to the full-time head coach, what does a Colts team look like with him pulling the strings for a full offseason rather than being tossed into the fire? We'll have to wait and see.