NFL Week 7 Prop Picks: Measuring the Bagent Effect

This game sets up nicely for Doubs to bounce back, considering the extra rest for him and his teammates. It also doesn't hurt that the Packers will face a Broncos team that ranks dead last in pass defense expected points added (EPA) per Nfelo metrics.

This prop seems a bit short, as my projections have Doubs going over this number, given his median and average on the season.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert under 38.5 pass attempts (-115 at BetMGM)

After playing their last two games at home, the Chargers hit the road for a divisional matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City is on a five-game win streak after dropping their season opener to the Detroit Lions.

What's interesting about this Chiefs team is the fact that they've been able to lean on their defense for much of the season.

Kansas City sits third for the fewest points allowed (88) in 2023. And against the pass, the Chiefs' defense is tied for second in EPA.

While this matchup between two divisional foes has grown more competitive since Herbert's arrival with the Chargers, the Oregon product is just 2-4 against the Chiefs with three straight losses.

The line movement for the total could be foretelling, given that it opened at 49, and it's now down 47.5. That's quite a drop considering that the last four totals in this series were at least 52.5 points.

Herbert's head-to-head matchups against Kansas City provide a tell. He attempted over 38 passes in only one of six games against Kansas City.

Combined with Kansas City's defense playing well, there is value in the under.

Bears TE Robert Tonyan over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)

If starting quarterback Justin Fields (thumb) is out, this prop is even more attractive with rookie Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start. Despite signing as an undrafted free agent, Bagent defied the odds to make the Bears' 53-man roster.

To say the odds were against him would be an understatement, mainly since he played his ball in Division II. Bagent did manage to break the NCAA touchdown passing record.

You don't make it to the NFL if you don't have the ability, and Chicago must've seen enough out of him in preseason to reward him with a roster spot. Nonetheless, this is quite a step up in class for the Shepherd University product.

I don't see the Bears calling a ton of go routes with Bagent under center. Instead, look for him to play the role of a game manager to try and move his team up the field.

That should result in shorter passing plays and an increased usage of his tight ends. Based on the Bears' snap counts by position, they're using multiple tight end sets, which means Tonyan is getting opportunities to line up even with Cole Kmet (TE1) already on the field.

According to Pro Football Reference, Chicago's offensive line is facing the fourth-highest pressure rate at 28.8%, so Bagent must get the ball out of his hands quickly.

Chicago's protection woes should lead to more catching opportunities for their tight ends, particularly Tonyan.

— Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media