NFL Week 4: Picks & preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Cincinnati -3.5

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins continue to insist that the quarterback didn’t suffer a concussion against the Bills, and he isn’t in the protocol. Even taking at face value that he really does have a back injury, that combined with Hurricane Ian altering Miami’s travel plans might make the Dolphins’ time as one of the NFL’s two remaining unbeatens vanishingly brief. Miami might also want to try possessing the ball for more than 19:20 in this contest. Cincinnati finally got themselves right against the Jets, and just in time. Joe Burrow was sacked just twice, a marked improvement over the first two weeks of the season, and with actual time to throw, he made New York pay. D.J. Reader and La’el Collins both didn’t practice to start the week, so the Bengals have question marks on both lines. Still, they’re the home team on the short week, and the Dolphins’ circumstances are far from ideal; this feels like a game Cincinnati should win.

Look smart to your friends:

-Tyreek Hill is understandably the focal point of most opposing defenses, but Jaylen Waddle is no slouch. His 123 catches are the second-most all-time by a player in his first 20 career games.

-As good as Hill and Waddle are, Ja’Marr Chase has a case as the best receiver in this game. He’s bidding for his third-straight home game with 10+ catches and a receiving touchdown.

The pick: Bengals 30 Dolphins 23

TV: NFL NETWORK            LINE: Minnesota -2.5

The Vikings were the beneficiaries of some very questionable fourth-quarter coaching decisions by Dan Campbell in Week 3, but to their credit, they took advantage and made the Lions pay. That said, their work prior to the waning minutes of the game was far from encouraging. Also, not encouraging? Dalvin Cook’s dislocated shoulder. That could mean Alexander Mattison plays a much bigger role. Scan the waiver wire accordingly, fantasy aficionados. Jameis Winston’s status for this game is tenuous, which means Andy Dalton might end up getting the start for New Orleans. After a rough start against the Falcons in Week 1 – a game they won – the Saints have kept two straight opponents under 300 yards of offense…and lost both times. Even with the Vikings displaying some of their classic inconsistency so far this year, New Orleans will have to score more than the 24 points they racked up in Weeks 2 and 3 if they want to even their record at 2-2.

Look smart to your friends:

-Kirk Cousins put up huge numbers in his only other trip across the pond, passing for 458 yards and 2 touchdowns against Washington back in 2016. He’s also bidding for his fifth-straight regular-season game against New Orleans with 290+ passing yards, 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating.

-Think Alvin Kamara is licking his chops for this game? The last time these two teams met, he had 172 scrimmage yards and a single-game NFL record-tying 6 rushing touchdowns.

The pick: Vikings 24 Saints 14

TV: CBS            LINE: Cleveland -1.5

The Browns beat the Steelers in a way they had become accustomed to losing to Pittsburgh, grinding them with the running game and never blinking even as the Steelers held a one-point halftime lead. The Browns’ greatest strength with Jacoby Brissett under center is that his limitations actually help them embrace their identity. That said, Brissett deserves plenty of credit for maximizing the things he does well; he carved up Pittsburgh virtually every time he was given the chance. If he’s that sharp every week, the Browns will thrive. Cordarrelle Patterson has continued to deliver the goods for the Falcons. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry, and his 302 yards are third in the league through three games. Atlanta’s offense has shown surprising competence through three weeks, but one imagines they’ll have to get a little bit more out of the passing game to really emerge as any kind of a legitimate threat in the NFC South. Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London do make for an intriguing 1-2-3 punch, however.

Look smart to your friends:

-Nick Chubb fantasy owners should be rejoicing about this matchup; the last time the teams met, Chubb went off for a career-high 209 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns. Chubb also has the most 100+ rush yard games (24) and second-most rushing touchdowns (40) since entering the league in 2018.

-Patterson’s renaissance as one of the league’s best running backs has been a sight to behold, and he’s the only player in the NFL this year with two games of 135+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Browns 28 Falcons 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Pittsburgh -3

Pittsburgh looked good for a half against the Browns, and then the Steelers’ offense reverted to their dreadful ways in a desultory second half. Worse yet, the defense hemorrhaged yards to Cleveland’s running game and repeatedly lost the line of scrimmage. Mike Tomlin tersely indicated after the loss that he would not be considering changes at quarterback or offensive coordinator. With Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Philadelphia looming after this game, the Steelers could be staring at 1-7 if their offense doesn’t improve dramatically. The Jets’ magic, or whatever it was against the Browns, ran out quickly and unspectacularly against Cincinnati. Players are openly arguing with coaches on the sidelines, and the defense has looked rough the past few weeks. On the plus side, Zach Wilson will be back for this game, and Pittsburgh’s offense is so bad that even if the Jets struggle, they’ll probably be in the game well into the fourth quarter.

Look smart to your friends:

-Tight end Tyler Conklin was a reliable target for Joe Flacco in Wilson’s absence, and last week posted career highs in catches (8) and receiving yards (84). Wilson may find him to be a useful security blanket.

-Only five players in the NFL have had five or more games with 1.5+ sacks since the start of 2021. The injured T.J. Watt is one of them, but so too is the Steelers’ other outside linebacker, Alex Highsmith.

The pick: Jets 23 Steelers 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -3

Washington’s offense more or less no-showed against the Eagles last week, and their defense didn’t fare much better. That’s at least somewhat defensible since Philadelphia looks like the class of the NFC, but things might not get much easier against the Cowboys, who look surprisingly frisky with Cooper Rush under center. Dallas generated more pressures on Daniel Jones than any team has gotten on a quarterback this year, so that Carson Wentz might be in for a long afternoon. As for Rush, he looks, dare I say, comfortable as the starter in Big D. He’s now 3-0 in his career as a starter, and he hasn’t been along for the ride, either. Rush has actually made plays, and the Cowboys have trusted him to make crucial plays in big moments. There isn’t any actual quarterback controversy in Dallas, but the fact that the subject has at least gained some traction is a very good problem for Jerry Jones to have.

Look smart to your friends:

-Wentz has traditionally fared well against the Cowboys. In eight career starts versus Dallas, he has 14 touchdowns against just four interceptions and has a 95.7 passer rating.

-All-everything linebacker Micah Parsons is one of just two players in the NFL with two games of two+ sacks this season. He’s also going for his third game in a row with a sack against the Commanders.

The pick: Cowboys 24 Commanders 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -4

One gets the impression that the Seahawks’ season-opening matchup with the Broncos was Seattle’s Super Bowl, and that things might get pretty ugly sooner rather than later for Pete Carroll’s team. Geno Smith hasn’t really been the problem; he was very good in Week 1, and had good numbers against the Falcons in Week 3, though his late desperation interception sealed Seattle’s fate. The Lions had the Vikings on the ropes…and then Dan Campbell made perhaps the worst of three possible decisions, choosing to kick a 54-yard field goal rather than go for it on 4^th and 4 from the Vikings’ 36-yard-line. Punting might even have been a better choice. As it is, Kirk Cousins needed two 28-yard passes to K.J. Osborn to get Minnesota in the end zone, and the Lions, despite having played reasonably well in all three of their games, found themselves at 1-2. If Campbell really is starting to change the big-picture culture in Detroit, his team will handle an inferior opponent at home.

Look smart to your friends:

-Quick: Who’s the only receiver in the NFL besides Cooper Kupp to have two games with 9+ catches in 2022? If you guessed Tyler Lockett, come up and claim your prize.

-Jared Goff has been a punching bag for some time now, but he’s been lights out lately at home. Goff is 4-1, with 14 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in his past five home starts.

The pick: Lions 31 Seahawks 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Indianapolis -3

The Titans finally delivered the kind of performance that they and their fans were no doubt expecting right from the start this season, and Derrick Henry started to get himself on track. Still, Tennessee had to hang on for dear life and stop a two-point conversion attempt with just over a minute to go to secure a victory. There are still real questions about both Ryan Tannehill, and what has so far been one of the league’s worst defenses. The Colts saved their season and may have fully changed the narrative about it with a win over Kansas City. Indy wasn’t great offensively, but they did enough, and their defense stifled Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Colts’ offense has struggled overall, of course, but their defense looks perfectly geared to stop what the Titans want to do. Indianapolis has given up just 2.6 yards per carry this year, tops in the NFL. Whoever wins gets right back in the AFC South race. Whoever loses has some real work to do.

Look smart to your friends:

-Kevin Byard is routinely (and shamefully) overlooked as one of the league’s premier safeties, but Colts fans aren’t guilty of that. Byard has an interception in two of his past three games at Indianapolis and is looking for his third straight game against Indy with 2+ passes defensed.

-Jonathan Taylor is the Colts’ workhorse, but watch out for Nyheim Hines in this game. He’s got 4 touchdowns in his past five games against Tennessee and has 5+ catches in three of his last four meetings with the Titans.

The pick: Colts 26 Titans 21

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -3

Somehow, some way, the Bears are 2-1. Their offense hasn’t been good, and in their only real test, they got smoked by San Francisco. What’s most troubling is their passing offense, which is worse in the league in attempts, yards, and net yards per attempt. The Bears have passed for a grand total of 235 yards in three games, and while the running attack is second in the NFL, the offense is dead last in total yards. Speaking of “somehow, some way,” New York is also 2-1. The Giants couldn’t beat Cooper Rush and the Giants, but stopping Justin Fields and the Bears might be an easier task at this point. What could be more problematic for New York is protecting Daniel Jones, who was under siege against the Cowboys for the majority of the game Monday night. Sterling Shepard is done for the year, and with Kadarius Toney and Leonard Williams both not practicing Wednesday, New York is hurting on both sides of the ball.

Look smart to your friends:

-Roquan Smith’s big interception set up the Bears’ win over Houston, and he became the first player since Lorenzo Alexander in 2018 with 15+ tackles and an interception in a single game.

-Jones had 79 rushing yards last week, his third-career game with 75+ rushing yards. And though you might not think it, his 1,125 rushing yards since 2019 ranks fifth among quarterbacks.

The pick: Bears 19 Giants 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Philadelphia -6.5

Raise your hand if you had this as the game of the week when the season started. The Jaguars look a new team with Doug Pederson as head coach because, well, they are. Trevor Lawrence’s development is getting most of the attention, but Jacksonville’s defense looks nasty, having suffocated the Colts and Chargers in successive weeks. If there are still Jaguars doubters out there, they’ll be gone if they win this game. Philadelphia looks like the best, most complete team in the NFC, and Jalen Hurts looks like an MVP contender. The Eagles dominated Washington last week, and like the Jaguars, boast a defense that’s flying low under the radar, but can hurt the opposition in multiple ways. Of course, gaudy records aside, the real story of this game is Pederson, who returns as the opposing coach in a city where he delivered a Super Bowl, mainly by getting an all-time game out of Nick Foles. Will Eagles fans boo him? Will they cheer him? Who am I kidding? They’ll boo.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a monster in pass coverage. He had 3 passes defensed and an interception in Week 3, and is the first rookie since Marshon Lattimore in 2017 with 3+ passes defensed and an interception in consecutive games.

-A.J. Brown typically haunts Jacksonville. The former Titans stalwart has 110+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch in two of his last three games against the Jaguars.

The pick: Eagles 28 Jaguars 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -3

None of the stats that usually tell the most accurate tale of a football game – time of possession, total yards, total plays run, et cetera – would have suggested to you that the Bills lost their game against the Miami Dolphins last week. Of course, the one that counts – the final score – showed that they did. The Dolphins discovered this One Weird Trick to beating the Bills, however, find a way to stay close. Buffalo is now 0-7 in its last seven games decided by 7 points or less. The Ravens went into Foxborough and handled the Patriots behind another command performance from Lamar Jackson, who turned a close game into a much more comfortable one for the visitors with his individual brilliance. The Jackson-to-Mark Andrews connection remains strong, but Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay are starting to give Jackson some help from the wide receiver position. This game feels like a potential AFC Championship Game preview. In other words, it’s the opposite of Jets-Steelers.

Look smart to your friends:

-Despite a very disappointing result in Miami, the Josh Allen MVP vibes are strong. He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,014) and is second in touchdown passes (9) so far this season.

-Who’s ahead of Allen in touchdown passes? Why, it’s Jackson, the presumptive MVP favorite through three games this season. He has 10 on the season, and also leads the league in passer rating, at 119.

The pick: Ravens 34 Bills 30

TV: CBS            LINE: Los Angeles -5.5

The Chargers are reeling, and not just because Justin Herbert is hurting. Rashawn Slater is done for the year. Joey Bosa is having surgery and going on IR, though his season isn’t necessarily over. Oh, and Los Angeles has lost two games in a row in awful – yet different – fashion. In other words, it’s a classic Chargers season, and we all should have seen this coming. Brandon Staley made an absurd choice to keep Herbert in at the end of a blowout, too. Houston should be a needed tonic, but again, these are the Chargers. The Texans played Chicago tough, but a late Davis Mills interception was a backbreaker. It goes without saying that Houston is bad, but Davis is just interesting enough that I want to see more. Rookie Dameon Pierce is more than interesting and gives you a reason to watch the Texans that doesn’t necessarily require you to be a degenerate gambler or over-the-top fantasy football obsessive. 

Look smart to your friends:

-Receiver Mike Williams has been a reliable playmaker on the road; he’s going for his third-straight road game with a touchdown catch and fourth-straight road game with 110+ receiving yards.

-Pierce has so far lived up to much of the preseason hype he’s generated, leading all rookie running backs in rushing yards (182) while ranking second among all rookies in scrimmage yards with 217.

The pick: Chargers 24 Texans 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Carolina -1.5

I can scarcely think of a team I enjoy watching less than the Cardinals. I don’t know what it is, either. Kyler Murray should be fun personified, but there’s something oddly joyless about watching Arizona’s offense. The Cardinals are an atrocity on defense, and can’t defend the pass whatsoever, and yet their offense really is what has me peeved. Kliff Kingsbury and Murray should be fun, but at least to my eye look stale and ineffective far too often. Are you ready for Christian McCaffrey’s yearly injury some more Panthers football? McCaffrey sat out Wednesday’s practice because of his thigh injury, and if he doesn’t go in this game, what has already been a disappointing offense will get that much worse on paper. Carolina got a win last week, but they’ve yet to reach 300 yards of offense in a single game, and Baker Mayfield looks quite awful thus far, completing barely 50 percent of his passes. It looks like a great matchup of former Oklahoma Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks!

Look smart to your friends:

-Murray has fared well against the Panthers. He had 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 116.7 passer rating in his last road meeting with Carolina, though the Cardinals lost the game, 31-21.

-Mayfield hasn’t been good, but he has done well against the Cardinals, much like Murray has performed against Carolina. Mayfield is going for his third in a row versus Arizona with 2+ touchdown passes and a 90+ passer rating.

The pick: Panthers 21 Cardinals 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Green Bay -9.5

It feels like the bloom is fully off the Bill Belichick rose. There was a time when you’d see Belichick gearing up for a big-name quarterback and know that guy was in for a long day at the office. Those days are gone. Lamar Jackson ran roughshod over the Pats, and Aaron Rodgers, though he’ll go about it differently, might do the same. Making matters worse for Belichick is the fact that Mac Jones will miss at least a few and possibly several games with a high ankle sprain. Green Bay wants to ground and pound opponents these days, but A.J. Dillon was limited in practice Wednesday. If he is healthy and can go, the Pack will no doubt stick with their formula of putting Dillon and Aaron Jones on the field at the same time. Will Belichick have an answer? It’s hard to say yes when Green Bay can fall back on Rodgers. If the Patriots lose, by the way, a 1-5 start isn’t out of the question.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brian Hoyer will be the starter for the foreseeable future in New England. He threw for 130 yards on 15-of-24 passing in his only previous start with the Patriots.

-Rodgers torched the Patriots the last time they came to Lambeau Field, throwing for 368 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions the last time the Pats came calling.

The pick: Packers 27 Patriots 19

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -2.5

Congratulations to the Broncos for winning one of the most hideous football games I have ever laid eyes on. They shouldn’t feel good coming out of Sunday night’s blindfolded slap fest, and Russell Wilson’s play has to be a growing concern in the Mile High City. Wilson, Klint Kubiak, and Nathaniel Hackett better draw up some things that work in the passing game, because Denver won’t stay afloat long in the AFC West without massive offensive improvement, even with their stout defense. The Raiders are already circling the drain, despite arguably outplaying two of their first three opponents. Las Vegas just can’t get out of its own way, but the Raiders can quickly climb back into the division race with a win here and one more next week in Kansas City (easier said than done on that part, I know). The remedy for Vegas is pretty simple; Derek Carr simply needs to play better, a lot better in fact. Carr is completing just 60 percent of his passes despite having completed roughly 68 percent of his throws over the four previous seasons. He’s the foundation of what the Raiders are trying to build, and right now, he’s showing cracks.

Look smart to your friends:

-Courtland Sutton has quietly become one of the league’s upper-echelon receivers. He’s looking for his third game in a row with 7+ catches and 95+ receiving yards.

-Davante Adams has had a solid start to the year, but it’s slow by his standards. Since 2016, he leads the NFL in catches (598) and receiving touchdowns (72), and is second in receiving yards (7,381).

The pick: Raiders 30 Broncos 24

TV: NBC            LINE: Kansas City -1

Is there some real actual trouble in Kansas City? Patrick Mahomes and Eric Bieniemy were jawing at each other as the team headed into the locker room at halftime last week, and the Chiefs’ poor offensive performance raised a few eyebrows. Mahomes, despite playing his second mediocre game in a row, still had a chance to pull out a win in the end, so things aren’t in crisis mode for Kansas City just yet, but there’s no denying that the team hasn’t looked like its juggernaut self. The Bucs might end up having to play this game in Minneapolis or New Orleans depending on the humanitarian situation on Florida’s gulf coast, but even if they do, their defense should travel, and travel well. After getting torched early by Aaron Rodgers, Tampa Bay put the clamps on the two-time defending MVP the rest of the way. There’s no reason to think that they won’t be able to exert the same influence on Mahomes. Having said that is this Tom Brady guy ever going to do anything for Tampa? You’d think, for once in his career, he’d pull his weight.

Look smart to your friends:

-This game is a chance for Travis Kelce to climb a little higher in the pantheon of tight ends. He has 9,236 career receiving yards and can surpass Rob Gronkowski (9,286) for fifth-most by a tight end in league history.

-Mike Evans will be back for the Buccaneers, and not a moment too soon. Since 2014, the rangy receiver is tied for first in the league with 76 touchdown catches.

The pick: Buccaneers 23 Chiefs 21

TV: ESPN            LINE: San Francisco -1.5

I don’t know what to make of the Rams, to be perfectly honest. Sometimes, they look good enough to trounce the NFL’s best. Other times, they look like they would struggle with the dregs of the league. Usually, this juxtaposition happens in the span of just one quarter. Los Angeles didn’t exactly look commanding last week against Arizona, and the Cardinals have their own problems. On the plus side, Matthew Stafford didn’t throw an interception last week. That remains a stat to monitor moving forward. San Francisco gave away last Sunday night’s game against the Broncos. The Niners did just enough to open the door for Denver, never more than when Jimmy Garoppolo stepped out of the back of the end zone, a move known as an Orlovsky. There is still time for Kyle Shanahan and Garoppolo to figure things out and get San Francisco going, but the upcoming schedule features three of four on the road, with the one home game being Kansas City. To their credit, though, the 49ers do play the Rams tougher than perhaps any team in the league.

Look smart to your friends:

-The 49ers have challenged Jalen Ramsey, and it has largely not gone all that well. He’s bidding for his fourth-straight game against San Francisco with a pass defended.

-George Kittle has been a prime-time player. He’s bidding for his third Monday Night Football game in a row with a touchdown reception.

The pick: 49ers 24 Rams 16