NFL Week 17: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks betting picks, preview

Both of these teams are 8-7 heading into Week 17. For Seattle, that has them in the final playoff spot in the NFC, but for Pittsburgh they are on the bubble in the AFC. With so many teams tightly bunched in the AFC a win can change everything, and a loss is probably a death knell. Seattle, even with a loss has a better than 40% chance of making it to the postseason. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Trends and Odds   

Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023 —  4 p.m. ET
Spread: Seattle -3.5, Over/under 41, Pittsburgh +154 | Seattle -185

Seattle is favored at home, though they are just 2-4-1 ATS there this season, and it does not offer the extra level of home-field advantage it did during the Legion of Boom glory days. Pittsburgh is 3-3 SUATS on the road this season and whenever they are underdogs under Mike Tomlin they draw attention. This season, it feels like they are making it up as they go every week though. 

Picks for Pittsburgh vs. Seattle

Seattle -3.5; Zach Charbonnet 40+ Yards (+255)

The Steelers probably need this game more, but that only takes you so far. It is a nice story that they have turned to veteran backup Mason Rudolph at quarterback, but he is limited and has only so much around him to work with. Also, the Pittsburgh defense is not as good as I thought it was when I looked them up. They do not give up a ton of points, but they are in the bottom half in yardage allowed, and if they cannot turnover the Seahawks, those drives add up to the home team taking control of the game with ease. Seattle can pretty much clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win so their motivation should be high and they have won back-to-back close games after a four-game losing streak. Now is the time for them to flex a little. 

I am looking for the Seahawks to be in control of this game and in the second half to especially lean on their ground game. Reserve running back Charbonnet does not get as much usage as Kenneth Walker III so the key here will be opportunity. The magic number for him is nine (carries). Every time he has exceeded number, he has bested this yardage total. This alt-line payoff is more than worth it. 

Seattle is the majority pick so far so it is unlikely we see this game drop down to -3. I am confident the Seahawks win by at least a touchdown in this home spot. So I am not worried about it. Or worried about it getting to -4 or -4.5.