NFL prop bets for Week 11 and beyond

Following Thursday night's 27-24 loss at Seattle, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are now 0-5 on the road this season and have dropped seven straight dating back to 2017.

Trailing by as many as 11 points and down 21-17 to start the fourth quarter, Russell Wilson worked his late-game magic once again finding tight end Ed Dickson for the go-ahead score with five minutes to go in the game. According to Pro-Football Reference, Wilson now has 20 fourth quarter comebacks. Speaking of the number four, the Seahawks franchise quarterback is in the third year of his four-year, $87-million contract. Whether or not free agent Le'Veon Bell will earn the coveted fifth year is where we start our Week 11 NFL prop bet rundown.

Odds: Over 4 Years (-165) | Under 4 Years (+125)

The fun part about NFL contracts is most of them are not guaranteed. So, when this is the case, the length of the contract doesn't typically matter to the front office. With so many franchises in search of consistent production out of the backfield, somebody will give a 27-year-old running back five years to be thee guy. Worst case scenario is Bell's new contract is four years, it's a push and we start back at neutral.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 365.5 (-120) | Under 365.5 (-120)

The Bengals are allowing a league-high 454.6 yards per game. However, they may have caught a break this week. Joe Flacco hasn't practiced this week after having the BYE last week to rest his injured hip. Lamar Jackson missed Thursday's practice with a stomach bug. So, we could see the return of Robert Griffin III to the starting lineup. RG3's last regular season start came Week 17 of the 2016 season. Baltimore averages fewer than 93 rush yards per game. It's hard to fathom how the Ravens light up the league's worst defense with the current state of their offense.

The Bet: UNDER

Odds: Yes +200 | No -300

After losing 34-10 at Tennessee last week, Patriots critics are coming out of the woodwork once again. New England's three remaining road games are at the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers. Obviously, the matchup against Pittsburgh gives one pause to consider if this rendition of the Patriots can stay within 10 points of the Steelers high-octane offense. However, just when we're ready to write off the Patriots, they flip the script, get just healthy enough, bend, but don't break, win the AFC East, and make a deep playoff run.

The Bet: NO

Odds: Yes -140 | No: EVEN

This is an intriguing prop bet because it insinuates that once the red-hot Texans or home-team Redskins take the lead, that they'll possess it wire-to-wire. It's not very often the NFL - in all its parity - shakes out in such a manner. Washington could very easily receive the opening kickoff, drive down and kick a 50-yard field goal before Deshaun Watson torches them the final 55 minutes of the game.

The Bet: Yes

Odds: Yes -175 | No +135

Aside from Nathan Peterman, there may not be a guy in the NFL with lower self-esteem right now than Derek Carr. It's been an ugly season from the get-go, he lost his top receiver when the Raiders traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys, the team is 1-8 and on its way to "earning" the top overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and yet, I have hope for his future. Carr is completing 71.5 percent of his passes this year, which ranks second behind only Drew Brees. Granted, his yards per attempt are only 7.65, but that's in the same ballpark as Ben Roethlisberger. With how challenging it is to find quality quarterbacks, the Raiders won't make a rash decision in letting Carr walk.

The Bet: Yes

Odds: Yes -160 | No +120

The Eagles are 9-point underdogs at New Orleans. The disrespect of the defending Super Bowl champions is amazing. New Orleans allows 6.1 points per game in the first quarter. The NFL has a funny way of tipping the balance when one team hits too low and the other team rides too high. The Saints may roll to a Week 11 victory, but Carson Wentz is going to find the end zone early.

The Bet: Yes

Odds: Yes +600 | No -1200

Just as, if not more crazy than Alex Smith's upcoming passing stat, the Bears kicker hit the upright four times in the Bears win over the Lions last week. The game of inches rears its ugly head once more. However, with how badly kickers have performed this season, it's more than likely to happen to Parkey again then never again. So, why not this week when the fear is still fresh in his head?

The Bet: Yes, at 6-to-1 why not?

Odds: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-130)

After learning the quarterback likes to put ketchup on his steak and mac and cheese (I know, but we don't have time), iconic ketchup maker Heinz offered Mahomes a lifetime supply of its product if he passed for 57 touchdowns this season. He's averaging better than three touchdown passes per game. He'd have to average 4.6 touchdown per game to reach Heinz's requested milestone. It's not happening. This prop bet asks that he maintain his three pass TD's per game average to hit the OVER. There isn't much juice on the UNDER and think it's more than likely he falls just short.

The Bet: UNDER

Odds: Yes (+155) | No (-220)

In case you missed it, one of Jared Goff's audibles last week against the Seahawks was "Halle Berry." Well, the famous actress caught wind of it and tweeted at Goff to ask him what the play was and Goff replied "It's my favorite play, ever." Good on Goff to shoot his shot when he had the opportunity, but I think the Berry audible will be one-and-done.

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes (+105) | No (-135)

Michael Roberts is hurt. Luke Willson is hurt. You'll need to check their playing status Sunday morning to see if they're active. The only healthy tight end is Levine Toilolo and he's the Lions primary pass-blocker at the position. Who is going to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that has allowed seven touchdowns over the past five games and four the past two weeks?

The answer: Toilolo

The Bet: YES

Odds: Over 79.5 | Under 79.5

The Panthers second-year running back has been held under 80 rush yards in all but one game this season. McCaffrey rushed 28 times for 184 yards against the Bengals 31st-ranked rush defense, which has allowed 141.2 rush yards per game. The Lions allow 132.7 rush yards per game. My only concern with McCaffrey is usage in the run game. At times, he's a forgotten man and produces more as a pass-catcher than a between-the-tackles runner. Yet, it's hard to ignore how bad both the Bengals and Lions are against the rush and the fact McCaffrey is averaging 15-16 carries per game over the past three weeks.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes (-120) | No (-120)

The Falcons are messing with us, right? After winning three straight and blowing out the Redskins on the road two weeks ago, they traveled to Cleveland as 4-point favorites last week and laid a stinky egg. One bright spot in the loss was that Julio Jones scored for a second consecutive game after being held out of the end zone the first seven weeks of the season.

The Cowboys secondary has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns this season, 12. However, with Atlanta on their home turf and Jones seeing double-digit targets per game, I like him to hit the touchdown trifecta this week.

The Bet: YES

Odds: Over 178 | Under 178

One of the craziest stats heading into Week 11 is that Redskins quarterback Alex Smith has passed for EXACTLY 178 in three of his past four games. Houston's secondary has allowed 251 pass yards per game this season, but only 220 over their last five games as they start to get guys back from injury.

With Washington's offensive line missing three starters due to injury and how well the Texans front seven have played as of late, Smith isn't going to have time to game manage his way to a big day. This could be Smith's worst game of the season.

The Bet: UNDER

Odds: Yes (+105) | No (-135)

For as poorly as the Lions have played over the past five games, their pass defense remains ranked in the top seven. So, it should have come as no surprise that Adam Thielen's streak of eight consecutive games with 100-or-more receiving yards came to an end against Detroit. However, four receptions for 22 yards was a little shocking. Despite the streak ending, Thielen extended his touchdown streak to one in each of the past six games. It'll be challenging to reach seven. Pro Football Focus grades his matchup against Bears cornerback Bryce Mitchell as one of the least favorable this week.

The Bet: No

Odds: AFC (EVEN) | NFC (-140)

While four of the top six favorites to win Super Bowl LIII reside in the AFC, the NFC stakes claim to the top two. The Los Angeles Rams opened the season at 20-to-1, meaning for every dollar wagered, you could win $20, but are now up to 11-to-4 odds, while the only team they lost to this season, New Orleans, opened at 16-to-1, but are now 11-to-4, too.

Kansas City, Pittsburgh, New England and Los Angeles Chargers round out the top six favorites with each boasting 12-to-1 or better odds.

The precision in which the Saints are executing on both sides of the football, and not necessarily their eight-game winning streak, leads me to believe they deserve to be the favorite indefinitely.

The Bet: NFC