Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2). Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

NFL playoff betting: This 63.3 percent trend points to 4 wild-card wagers

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 1/9/24

The 2024 NFL playoffs begin this Saturday with six games on wild-card weekend. If you're trying to figure out how to attack this loaded slate in the betting market, we're here to steer you in the right direction.

Can we interest you in a wild-card trend that's hit at a 63.3 percent clip dating back to 2002? Of course we can.

Fade the quarterbacks making their first career playoff start

Winning in the NFL playoffs is no easy feat, especially for quarterbacks making their first career playoff start. Over the years, fading QBs in their postseason debut has been quite a profitable strategy for sports bettors.

According to Sportsbook Review, NFL quarterbacks are 27-50 straight up in their first playoff start dating back to 2002. Those QBs are 30-46-1 against the spread in postseason debut games (39.5 percent), and if you take out the matchups between two first-time playoff starters, that ATS record drops to 22-38-1 (36.7 percent).

So, quarterbacks with previous playoff experience going up against playoff rookie QBs have covered at a 63.3 percent clip in the postseason since 2002. Is that any good?

Luckily for us, there are four quarterbacks who will be making their first career playoff start in this weekend's wild-card round: C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Mason Rudolph and Jordan Love. All four will be facing off against quarterbacks with previous playoff experience, and two will go up against Super Bowl-winning QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Joe Flacco).

If you're a believer in this profitable trend, here are the four bets you should target on wild-card weekend:

Cleveland Browns (-3) at Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers