NFL picks: Week 11

While both teams have played better of late, the Seahawks and Packers have their backs against the wall in Week 11. The Packers are 0-4 on the road and just 1-3 against the spread in those games. The Seahawks expect Chris Carson to return and face a weak Green Back run defense that's allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

Dallas got a huge win at Philadelphia last week and is set to face a Falcons defense that has allowed the second-most yards per rush (5.2). The game could come down to the Cowboys defense and its ability to hold Matt Ryan, but it didn't have much problem with Carson Wentz last week.

The Jags offense started to show some spunk with the return of Leonard Fournette last week, but the defense still struggled. Pittsburgh is one of the league's hottest teams with five straight wins and has yet to lose a game on the road, while the Jags have lost five straight. The extra few days of rest after last week's Thursday game could also make a difference for the banged-up Ben Roethlisberger.

Washington's beat-up offensive line managed to hold up against Tampa Bay last week, but Houston's defensive line is a different animal. The Texans have elite talent on the ends, led by J.J. Watt, and are holding opposing teams to 6.6 yards per pass and 3.6 yards per rush. The Redskins have exceeded expectations at 6-3 against the spread, but it's hard to see how they move the ball in this one.

These two teams have been playing good football lately, and this game is big for playoff positioning. Tennessee's level of difficulty has been far greater, with games at Dallas and vs. New England, and they won both by at least 14 points with Marcus Mariota finally showing something. The Titans defense still ranks tops in the league in points allowed (16.8) and is holding offenses to less than 7 yards per pass attempt.

The Panthers are coming off a brutal showing last Thursday at Pittsburgh, but before that point they had won five of six. The Lions have lost three straight games by 14 points or more, and Matt Patricia's defense is getting pummeled, allowing 6.3 yards per play (sixth worst). Christian McCaffrey and Co. have a great shot to get back on track.

New York got on the board with its second win of the season on Monday and returns home to face a Bucs team coming off a three-point performance and still struggling to run the ball.  It's the Bucs pass defense, allowing 8.3 yard per pass attempt, that will be their biggest issue with a healthy selection of Giants weapons.

There's still no line for this game as of Tuesday evening, as we wait for Joe Flacco's status  (hip). Either Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III will start for Baltimore if Flacco is unable to go.

The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in football with six straight wins, though it's worth noting that they've scored 30 points only once over that stretch. Denver's defense presents a significant challenge coming off a bye. The Broncos have lost six of seven games, but their last three losses against formidable opponents (Rams, Chiefs, Texans) were by a touchdown or less.

Arizona's offensive line is in shambles as it showed last week, allowing Josh Rosen to be hurried on more than 50 percent of dropbacks. Fortunately, the Raiders don't pose as major a threat, ranking dead last with a sub-3-percent sack rate. The Raiders are also just 2-7 against the spread, worst in football. The Cardinals finally started to get the ball to David Johnson consistently last week under new coordinator Byron Leftwich.

The Eagles took a crushing defeat against Dallas on Sunday, not only losing a division game but also losing cornerback Ronald Darby for the year. The defense has shown flashes this season, but it's difficult to see how it holds the red-hot Saints. New Orleans has won eight straight games and scored at least 30 points in six of them. The Eagles have the passing game to put up points, but it will be difficult to keep up with New Orleans on the road.

This game could represent the changing of the guard in the NFC North if Chicago is able to pull out a win. Khalil Mack's improving health could make a big difference against a Vikings offensive line that has struggled, and Mitchell Trubisky has looked more capable in recent weeks, coming off arguably the best game of his career last week vs. Detroit.

A complete mess in Mexico City has been averted, as the game has been moved to L.A. due to poor field conditions. The offenses rank as the top two in football, but the Rams defense has been struggling significantly more than that of the Chiefs lately. The L.A. defense has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games and was gouged by the Seahawks running game last week, while the Chiefs have held offenses to 23 points or less in four straight since losing at New England. The recent return of Justin Houston has made the Chiefs even better, while L.A. lost Cooper Kupp for the year to hinder its offense.