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Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Notebook: Giardi - NIL is changing the draft, and will X mark the spot for the Patriots?

Originally posted on Boston Sports Journal
By Mike Giardi | Last updated 4/24/24

Consensus is hard to find when discussing the NFL draft. Braintrusts across the league are sitting in conference rooms right now debating their big boards - both the vertical and horizontal versions - and, almost as important, the boards of the other 31.

This year, however, there is a shared opinion on one aspect of this draft: day three lacks depth. Why? Only 58 underclassmen made themselves available to the league, less than half the size in 2021. The small number is primarily a result of the relatively new NCAA transfer portal and the sums of money being thrown around due to NIL (Names, Image, and Likeness), which allows athletes to benefit from their talents and marketability.

For instance, have you heard of running back Damien Martinez? He's an 1,100-yard rusher at Oregon State who was going to be a hot commodity in the April portal (There are two. The first from December 4 through January 2004. This one goes from April 15-30). But the Beavers reportedly produced $400K to keep him in Corvallis.

While Martinez couldn't turn pro this year, quarterbacks Carson Beck of Georgia, Texas' Quinn Ewers, and Shadeur Sanders of Colorado could have. They all have chosen to remain in college, and while part of the decision is to improve their craft, the money they're making doesn't hurt. Beck's NIL deals have been valued at $1.5 million, Ewers at $1.9 million, and Sanders at a whopping $4.7 million.

Obviously, they aren't the only ones.

"There's been multiple guys I've probably been (watching) for two years now, thinking they were going to (declare for the draft), and it's really interesting," said Vikings General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah at the NFL combine. "You talk about supply and demand issues. Like, (defensive) line was apparently a big issue in college, and a lot of those guys got a lot of money to go back to college. And so that's gonna affect our league and the depth of that position and different things."

That said, Adofo-Mensah thinks the athletes are deserving of this.

"I mean, I'm a markets guy. So I actually think it's great. I think the market should dictate those things. I think those players should have those choices..."

But with those choices - and more players opting to stay in school - Adofo-Mensah and GMs like him are looking at a shallower pool of prospects, and that could very well shape how aggressive they are on the first two days of the draft in particular.

"If you like a prospect and he's a cut above what you'd get from sticking and picking, it makes all the sense in the world to package some of those Day 3 selections to move up - even if it's just a handful of spots - to get the better player on your board," one college scouting director told me.

"Day 3 this year is going to be littered with players who don't even make the team that drafted them," said one front office exec. "So the question becomes, do you want to use all those picks and hope one of those developmental guys advances quicker than you think? Or are you better served consolidating those picks to move up or entirely out of a round or two?"

Of course, this could create a potential advantage for a team or teams that believe the more, the merrier regarding draft class size.

"I think there are smart teams that might buck the trend and add picks just to maximize their chances," an AFC scout told me. "If you nail even one of those selections — Puka Nacua, for instance (2023 5th round, pick 177) — then it will all be worth it."

MORE MONEY, MORE PROBLEMS?

Just days after San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk unfollowed the team on social media (kids these days), Philadelphia added fuel to Aiyuk's fire by picking up DeVonta Smith's fifth-year option, then extending his contract through 2028.

Smith gets $51 million guaranteed, and the deal's structure should allow the Eagles to keep Smith and A.J. Brown on the team for the next two years before they have to make a hard decision.

Smith's three-year cash total on the extension ($75 million) matches Tyreek Hill's and trails only Cooper Kupp ($80 million).

Not only is Aiyuk smiling over that deal, but so too are three wideouts who have decided to stay away from voluntary workouts: Ceedee Lamb in Dallas, Minnesota's Justin Jefferson, and Courtland Sutton in Denver.

The Cowboys will have to get creative with Lamb because Dak Prescott is in the last year of his contract and is carrying a $55 million cap hit (and a $40 million dead-cap hit for next year if he leaves). Jefferson will surely exceed $30 million per year (though that deal - in theory at least - will be easier to absorb with Kirk Cousins' dead money coming off the cap after the upcoming season). While Sutton isn't in the same class, he is entering the final year of his deal and is coming off a 10-touchdown catch campaign.

Of course, there's no guarantee any of these players will remain with their current teams, and I include Aiyuk in that conversation. Someone in the Vikings' front office was undoubtedly behind the leak that Jefferson had turned down $30 million yearly. That feels slightly dysfunctional and is a way to broadcast to the fan base, "Hey, we tried, but Justin wasn't willing to play ball," when they include him in a package to move up in the draft or ship him off to some AFC team.

Let's say you're a team like the Patriots and need all the help you can get. Do you turn valuable first — and/or second-day selections in this or future drafts to acquire one of these players, or do you wait until next offseason, when Tee Higgins might be a free agent with no strings, or perhaps Aiyuk plays on the fifth-year option only and also pops free? I know where I stand (see my feelings on Calvin Ridley). But how does Eliot Wolf view the ever-changing, ever-increasing wide receiver market? We may get our answer soon.

LEANING LEGETTE?

One of the more intriguing prospects in the upcoming draft is South Carolina's Xavier Legette. Aside from being built like a Greek god, Legette did little to move the needle during his first four seasons with the Gamecocks. He had just 33 receptions, and while he was fairly electric as a kick returner - averaging 29.4 yards per with a TD in 2022 - it didn't feel as though it would ever click for the South Carolina native.

But Legette went full beast mode in 2023, setting career-highs in catches (71), receiving yards (1,255), and touchdowns (7). Those numbers could have been even better had USC actually had an offensive line (they started a different combo every week, which is hard to do). He ended up being named a second-team All-SEC performer (an argument could be made that he was the most valuable receiver in the conference).

Legette didn't have a great Senior Bowl week and missed the game because of a lower leg injury, but he then tested like a Valedictorian at the Scouting Combine, running a 4.39 40, recording a 40-inch vertical, and launching himself into space with a 10'6" broad jump — all that at 6'1", 223 pounds.

"He's a freak," said one NFC scout. "When he elevates for a ball, he hangs in the air like Michael Jordan (the basketball player). I found myself hitting rewind to figure out how that's possible."

Based on that quote alone, you'd think Legette would be a first-rounder, but most folks in the league expect him to go somewhere in round two or at the top of round three (once again, it's about what kind of flavor teams are looking for). Part of that traces back to the 23-year-old's flawed route running and, despite those wheels, his inability to consistently create separation both early in routes and at the top.

"I'd like to see more from him," said an AFC front office exec. "Looking like that, moving like that, he should have blossomed sooner. He definitely needs to be coached up on the nuances of route running. Even a moderate improvement would go a long way because of his physical gifts."

But the important thing here is that Legette is one of those receivers in this class, and you can automatically book 3 to 5 touches a game on bubble or tunnel screens, shallow crossers, and jet sweeps. For a team like New England, one that struggled to create explosives last year, plugging Legette into their offense would give it some desperately needed juice even as the player works through some of his issues.

"He's a bada--," an NFC scout told me. "They love him (at South Carolina). He practiced hard, played hard, and blocked like he wanted to knock that defender's head from his body. I want a guy like that on my team."

FILED UNDER 'NOT WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR'

After a miserable season that saw them win just four games, will life get any easier for the Patriots this season? Warren Sharp released his 2024-25 strength of schedule metric, and he has the Pats with the second most difficult schedule in the league, trailing only the Steelers.

Sharp is a gambler, among other things, so he bases this metric on Las Vegas odds. What is the track record of this, you ask? Warren's website (sharpfootballanalysis.com) points to last year as the most recent example of why this matters.

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)
Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)
Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier-than-average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)
Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder-than-average schedules, all 7 had losing records, and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals).

Currently, the over/under on Pats wins in 4.5. As for the other AFC East teams, the Bills are at 10.5 (10th hardest schedule), the Jets 9.5 (3rd easiest schedule), and Dolphins 9.5 (8th easiest schedule). The division plays the NFC West this year.

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