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Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison. Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: There's value on Alexander Mattison leading the league in rushing

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 8/31/23

If you're looking for a big potential payout in the NFL futures market, look no further than Alexander Mattison leading the league in rushing yards.

Mattison has been the backup to Dalvin Cook in Minnesota for the past four seasons. Cook is now gone, giving the 25-year old Mattison the opportunity to shoulder the full-time load in this Vikings offense. Mattison's efficiency has left something to be desired the past two seasons, but the workload and the schedule makes this a bet I'm comfortably sprinkling on.

Alexander Mattison: +2500 to lead NFL in rushing yards (DraftKings)

As I prep for Week 1 and the early bit of the NFL schedule, I'm taking stock of the quality of every defense over on my Substack. My latest dove into the worst rushing defenses from 2022, and who seems primed to be in the basement once again.

Curiously, there's a large NFC North contingent on this list, with Chicago, Detroit and Green Bay's running defenses all among the NFL's worst. That certainly catches the eye as it relates to Minnesota and Mattison, as the Vikings will face these rush defenses six times in 2023.

Minnesota will also see two other defenses I've identified as some of the worst at stopping the run in the Chargers and Raiders, giving Mattison quite the path to some big rushing outputs.

Last year, Dalvin Cook was sixth in the NFL in rushing yards at 1,173. Two years ago he was fifth with 1,159 yards. Three years ago he was second at 1,557 yards. Four seasons ago he was tenth despite missing two games.

I say all this to suggest that this offense is conducive to success from the running back position, and now it's Mattison's turn to take advantage.

The past five games Mattison played without Cook in the lineup, he averaged 21.4 carries per game and 90.2 yards per game. It's imperfect to stretch that out, but an average of 90.2 for a full season would put Mattison at 1,533.4 rushing yards on the season. That's about what the runner-up for the rushing title has seen in each of the past three seasons.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

We'd need to see a bit more of a pop, plus Mattison staying healthy which is of course no sure thing for this position, but at +2500 I'm willing to stake a small-unit wager on this market.

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