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NFL futures: Finding value in some division winners
Four weeks into the year, and we're most definitely starting to get a clearer picture around the quality of each team. As with every year, there are some surprises. Who would have thought Cincinnati would sit at +700 to win the AFC North after just four games, for one thing.
After some key divisional games in Week 4, there is some value on the board to load up a pair of division winners, starting with this week's biggest win.
Buffalo (+100 to win AFC East)
I am surprised to see that Buffalo is still tied with Miami at +100 to win the AFC East. The Bills just blew the doors off the Dolphins, taking their Week 4 contest, 48-20.
Not only did that show just how far apart these two teams remain, it was also the third-straight dominant effort out of Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo has won each of their past three games by at least 28 points. They are one of the most well-balanced teams in the league, and it has led to Allen being MVP favorite.
Could this be an example of us getting bored of Buffalo and looking elsewhere this offseason in the futures market? The Bills have been among the Super Bowl favorites the past few seasons, but their dismal Divisional Round showing last year against the Bengals soured many's views on their 2023 outlook. Even I had mentioned this summer that perhaps the Bills missed their Super Bowl window.
Not so fast. This is the best team in the AFC East and arguably the AFC. Buffalo has a stretch coming up of the Jaguars, Giants, Patriots, Bucs, Bengals, Broncos and Jets. It's not inconceivable to think Buffalo heads into a Week 12 date with the Eagles at 11-1.
Grab Buffalo at even money while you still can.
Tampa Bay (+165 to win NFC South)
Now sure, I just glossed over the Bucs as a potential and likely win for Buffalo, but that doesn't mean Tampa Bay is a bad team. On the contrary.
Tampa has gotten surprisingly strong play from Baker Mayfield thus far, leading the way to a 3-1 start. His best performance of the year arguably came in the Buccaneers's blowout win over New Orleans. It's that result that has us surprised in this price.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
The Saints seem to distrust Jameis Winston so much that they trotted out a clearly hurt Derek Carr who couldn't throw the ball down the field. Shoulder injuries are nothing to scoff out when it comes to QBs, and if this lingers, the New Orleans offense feels likely to stay neutered.
Elsewhere in the NFC South, Carolina is looking hopeless at 0-4, and Desmond Ridder is just not a good QB in Atlanta.
The Bucs are the best team in what is perhaps the worst divison in football. At +165, they're worth an investment.
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