NFL Betting: What we learned in Week 4 and how to use it in Week 5 and beyond

Ugh, New England

While Buffalo looked great it was overall not a strong week for the AFC East. The Patriots had no answers for Dallas last week, posting one of the worst games since the Genius took over as coach. It is really hard to see how this is going to get much better over the course of the season, and we might start hearing rumors of USC QB Caleb Williams to the Patriots. That is if he even "wants" to go there. 

Betting takeaway ... Assuming New England is going to figure things out no longer feels like a thing. I am not sure how many teams they are actually better than this season. 

L.A. Resurrections

The Chargers are now 2-2 and ditto for the Rams. The stories behind these teams' current status is different, but maybe both are going to be relevant this season. The Chargers looked dead in the water at 0-2, but a couple of wins have them now just a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West. As for the Rams, they are maybe three tiers below San Francisco but WR Cooper Kupp might be back soon and Matthew Stafford can definitely play better. They might be able to hang around and lean on some players who won a title not that long ago. 

Betting takeaway ... Betting the NFL is truly week to week, you have to monitor both the teams and the markets and sometimes even the vibes. We are now deep enough in that preseason expectations are less heavily factored. 

Who is the Best?

We are now down to just a couple of undefeated teams, 4-0 San Francisco and 4-0 Philadelphia. Based on point differential, SF is well ahead of the Eagles and the eye test favors them too. However, even with losses, Buffalo and Dallas have better point differentials than the 49ers. Plus there are the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs hanging around. This season we are blessed with a number of top teams. 

Betting takeaway ... A lot of these teams are going to face off with each other before the end of the season. Getting top teams in the right situation is going to matter. Example: Buffalo got undefeated Miami in a great spot last week at home. Look for those spots where teams values have to be inflated. 

Who is the Worst?

There is less debate about who the worst team is — Carolina and Chicago are both 0-4 and it does not look like things are turning around any time soon. For my money, Chicago is the worst team in the league. In Carolina, they have the transition excuse of a new rookie QB and a new head coach, but none of that exists for the Bears. As such, it is hard to see how things are going to get any better in Chicago this season.  There are terrible vibes around the club too.  

Betting takeaway ... The Panthers are Bears are a combined 0-6-2 ATS this season so fading the worst teams has been a winning strategy. The markets usually catch up but I think there is still some value there.