NFC South Week 7 predictions: Bucs extend division lead with win over Falcons

The Saints kick off Week 7 on Thursday night against the Jaguars while the Falcons and Bucs meet in Tampa with first place in the division on the line. The Panthers (0-6) are on their bye, putting the focus on the top three teams in the NFC South this weekend.

Here are our picks for the two division games on the schedule for Week 7.

Season record: 13-1

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3) | 8:15 p.m ET (Thursday)

Trevor Lawrence (knee) could miss Thursday night's game, putting former 49ers quarterback C.J. Beathard in line to start. He has not started since the final two games of the 2020 season when he went 38-of-59 for 455 yards and four touchdowns.

Regardless of who is the quarterback for Jacksonville, expect a defensive struggle. The two secondaries on display are among the best in football. 

Both teams are tied for second - along with four others - in interceptions with eight. The Jaguars are second in passes defended (36), and the Saints are first (40). New Orleans might be able to get some yards through the air - Jacksonville ranks last in passing yards allowed - but scoring could be a problem. 

New Orleans ranks 28th in red zone touchdown percentage, getting into the end zone on only 36.8 percent of series that make it inside the 20-yard line. Whichever team can avoid mistakes (or commit fewer) will likely win. 

Jacksonville is plus-eight in turnover margin, and the Saints are plus-two, forcing at least one turnover in 11 consecutive games dating back to last season. Expect a tight game that blows open late after the Jags defense - led by edge rusher Josh Allen - gets a sack-fumble on New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr.

PREDICTION: Jaguars, 27-14

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) | 1 p.m. ET (Sunday)

One of the most significant mismatches in Week 7 is the Falcons rush defense against the Bucs rush offense. Atlanta has been excellent against the run so far, ranking first in the league in expected points added per rush attempt after only allowing one rushing touchdown through six weeks. 

The Bucs have the league's worst rush offense, the only team with less than 400 rushing yards on the season. Tampa Bay is also one of six teams with one rushing touchdown or fewer, likely forcing it to beat Atlanta through the air.

It could have the firepower to do just that.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is dealing with a hand injury, but X-rays were negative following Sunday's loss to Detroit. He's never been more accurate as an NFL passer, completing 65.4 percent of his attempts. The Falcons secondary is fourth in passing yards allowed but is one of six teams to allow at least 10 touchdowns. To make matters worse, the secondary only has three interceptions.

Tampa Bay has a solid rush defense and its ability to slow down Atlanta's rushing attack will be the story of the game. The Bucs rank seventh in rush yards allowed per game (83.8 yards). If they hold the Falcons anywhere near that average, that will force quarterback Desmond Ridder to beat them with his arm. He is 40-of-69 for 392 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions on the road, where Atlanta has scored 13 points in two games.