Minnesota Vikings ceiling and floor for 2023

After winning their first NFC North title since 2017 last season, the Minnesota Vikings hope to repeat behind a dynamic offense and an improved defense in the second year under head coach Kevin O'Connell. 

Whether the Vikings can finish atop a much tougher NFC North again remains to be seen. Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Vikings in 2023. 

Ceiling: 11-6 

They say good teams make their own luck, and the Vikings did that in 2022, winning 10 one-score games (two in overtime) while avoiding back-to-back defeats. The Vikings can't expect the same good fortune again, can they? Maybe they won't have to. 

Boasting the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the NFC a season ago, quarterback Kirk Cousins returns armed with dynamic wide receiver Justin Jefferson, tight end T.J. Hockenson and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, another wideout.

Meanwhile, an overhauled defense could offer the offense relief. Following a down year ranked 28th in points allowed, the Vikings made significant changes on defense. Minnesota brought in Brian Flores to replace Ed Donatell as defensive coordinator, and the additions of edge-rusher Marcus Davenport, cornerback Byron Murphy and rookie CB Mekhi Blackmon could breathe new life into the unit.

A tough early schedule will test the defense, but it could shine in vastly important division matchups toward the end of the season against the Chicago Bears in Week 12, Detroit Lions in Weeks 16 and 18, and Green Bay Packers in Week 17. (View the complete schedule analysis here.)

Floor: 7-10

With the upstart Lions seemingly ready to contend for the division title and the Bears and Packers each likely to make a jump in 2023, the Vikings could be in for a longer-than-expected season if things go south early. Minnesota began the 2022 season winning seven of its first eight games, beating up mostly on inferior opponents. The Vikings won't have the same luxury in 2023 and could easily carry a losing record into the midway point of their schedule. 

After opening the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Vikings will face off against four 2022 playoff teams over the next six weeks: the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles (Week 2), Los Angeles Chargers (Week 3), reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (Week 5) and San Francisco 49ers (Week 7). Sprinkled in between are tough matchups at the Carolina Panthers (Week 4) and Bears (Week 6).

If things don't go smoothly over the first seven games, Minnesota must find a way to string a lot of road victories together down the stretch. Six of the team's final 10 games are on the road.